AtlanticWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's still rather rare. And who knows if that still works now. 2014 & 2015 were the last time... P.S. Where did you get the data for specific storms those years? (I have a list of the big ones and overall seasonal totals...but not the smaller ones) we get march snow quite often. march 16 2022 dropped 4-6" across the NW metro thru an anafrontal and i know we got like 2" in march 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Dt says the 30th won’t happen so you what that means Probabilities are in his favor. The gfs progression has no support from the ggem or euro. They are way less amplified with the trough. Plus more than half the gfs members and op runs recently that do have a storm it’s just a perfect track rainstorm. So when you add it all up the chances of snow is low. But it’s all we have to track so it’s being talked about. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: we get march snow quite often. march 16 2022 dropped 4-6" across the NW metro thru an anafrontal and i know we got like 2" in march 2019 Omg he wants a big storm. He’s said that. Baltimore hasn’t had a 6” snow since 2016. I get his frustration and he is right the chances of a BIG snow go down in the city by March. People posting examples of 2-4” snows and snows that hit west of the fall line don’t really refute his point. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 hours ago, WhiteoutMD said: I think we need to start wiring about flooding over the next 15 days. Anyone else think this? . My friend, the chances of serious flooding during the next 15 days is minimal. Snowpack melt is negligible as less than an inch of qp is in most snowpack. WPC 7 day qpf is 1.0 - 1.5 inches. This timeframe will completely eliminate snowpack. Have no fear of serious flooding unless guidance changes significantly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, stormy said: My friend, the chances of serious flooding during the next 15 days is minimal. Snowpack melt is negligible as less than an inch of qp is in most snowpack. WPC 7 day qpf is 1.0 - 1.5 inches. This timeframe will completely eliminate snowpack. Have no fear of serious flooding unless guidance changes significantly. yeah this isn't post Blizzard of 96. Now that was some serious flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Rivers might get a little swollen and I'm sure Old Town will flood (it floods if someone spills their drink in the Potomac), but we had worse flooding earlier this month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Omg he wants a big storm. He’s said that. Baltimore hasn’t had a 6” snow since 2016. I get his frustration and he is right the chances of a BIG snow go down in the city by March. People posting examples of 2-4” snows and snows that hit west of the fall line don’t really refute his point. my bad, i only saw his comment about march snow. and i agree, climo falls off a cliff in early march for any big storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: yeah this isn't post Blizzard of 96. Now that was some serious flooding. I remember it well. 30 inches of snow followed by 3.20 inches of rain a week later. Almost unbelievable!!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, stormy said: I remember it well. 30 inches of snow followed by 3.20 inches of rain a week later. Almost unbelievable!!!!!!! I was in 6th grade - we still had like 15-20" of snow on the ground and it was gone in 6 hours!! My neighbor was driving us to school with like 40-50mph winds and temps going up into the 60s lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: my bad, i only saw his comment about march snow. and i agree, climo falls off a cliff in early march for any big storms The difference between here and Baltimore becomes more extreme early and late. Since 2007 I’ve had 9 warning criteria snows in March and Baltimore only 2 I think. A few of those were really big storms here. And even ones that weren’t huge like the March 30 2014 8” Of super wet snow they fell in like 5 hours at the end of a storm was so much fun. March is a winter month up here. Not so much in the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Latest WB 12Z CFS; 5 day period ending February 11 is below average and it stays below average through March 5. 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I think you have to grade winters with a significant curve in the context of the New Base State. In a vacuum, if winter ended today it would be a D- or an F. But with the grading curve, it's a C-. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 28 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: I was in 6th grade - we still had like 15-20" of snow on the ground and it was gone in 6 hours!! My neighbor was driving us to school with like 40-50mph winds and temps going up into the 60s lol. Haines point was several feet underwater and all the tributaries were so swollen it was quite something to see. Old Town was under water for several high tide cycles. I lived near Old Town. Did quite a lot of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 7 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Haines point was several feet underwater and all the tributaries were so swollen it was quite something to see. Old Town was under water for several high tide cycles. I lived near Old Town. Did quite a lot of damage. The stream that flows through my property was higher during this Jan. 96 flood than elderly people could remember ever before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 11 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: I think you have to grade winters with a significant curve in the context of the New Base State. In a vacuum, if winter ended today it would be a D- or an F. But with the grading curve, it's a C-. If winter ended today it would be a solid B for a winter that ended on January 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, hstorm said: If winter ended today it would be a solid B for a winter that ended on January 20. Agreed. Since I’m exactly halfway to the old climo benchmark, I’d give it a midterm grade of B. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, notvirga! said: Dt says the 30th won’t happen so you what that means Blizzard!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, Snowacane said: Blizzard!!!!! I know this is in jest, but the period jan 28-31 is one to watch even in a lousy pattern. Going to be a needle threader or late miller B or may just be a perfect track rainstorm, but we’re still in the game. Wouldn’t count us out yet all the way to 2nd week Feb 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I know this is in jest, but the period jan 28-31 is one to watch even in a lousy pattern. Going to be a needle threader or late miller B or may just be a perfect track rainstorm, but we’re still in the game. Wouldn’t count us out yet all the way to 2nd week FebYup. Most likely a hit for the northeast but it is a threat worth tracking. That’s all I ask for in winter. Threats to track…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Mark margarbage going blizzard Feb 12 3 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 This looks like it’s headed to how the seasonals saw February Just a week late. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Mark margarbage going blizzard Feb 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: Feb 12 2024 book it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Feb 12 2024 book it My son’s birthday is V-day and I promised him snow for it back in like October. Sooo…need something to happen by then. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: My son’s birthday is V-day and I promised him snow for it back in like October. Sooo…need something to happen by then. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: My son’s birthday is V-day and I promised him snow for it back in like October. Sooo…need something to happen by then. Guaranteed by then, and likely before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Maybe this new water science finding will be inserted into our atmospheric dynamics models and allow them to spit out 15 back to back to back HECS by February 14. https://www.earth.com/news/water-molecule-discovery-will-force-textbooks-to-be-rewritten/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 16 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I had that as a kid!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I had that as a kid!! I have one now 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I have one now Was just about to say, have one now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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