Bob Chill Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Goofy ass evolution that will never happen, but 6z gfs gets it done Jan 30-31 I haven't tracked the setup at all but looking back compared to now, the cold hp and boundary keeps moving in our direction. A lot of lead time so who knows if it even exists lol. But at least for now, the trend is our friend. It would be darn near a miracle or just easy #3 on our heater hahahaha 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Couple random thoughts. I always talk about personalities of winters in a broad sense. At this point, this winter has spoken to me. It simply doesn't want to snow much up and down the east coast. Different reasons at different times but same result. North of us is suffering bad and that isn't the elephant. It's just repeating endless crappy tracks and/or setups when it matters. If you zoom out and look at the continent, our Mid-Atlantic problems are just a slice of the bigger issues plagueing the east. Will that change? Will Feb deliver? Beats me but my gut instinct is it probably won't up and down the coast. Feel pretty good about additional snowfall here in Feb. Might get a big one. But imho, the east as a whole is going to have a hard time doing a 180 and going on a heater. We turned on a dime in 2015 but north of us was already on an epic heater and snowfall to our NW was plentiful. Nobody (except our little slice) up and down 95 has had any kind of heater so far. Sometimes it's just the breaks and that's what this feels like to me. Things aren't breaking right in a broad sense and that's just the way it goes. Upcoming pattern looks to be another temp reset which is normal in any January. Now it's looking more like a problem than a break though. We had a long stretch of broad AN heights in Canada in Dec. Ens guidance agrees on another period of that. The longer that pattern holds, the longer it will take to reset. We'll prob see the way out within a week but hard to say what that looks like yet. Guidance has completely dropped the well placed epo/pna ridge idea for now. A +pna and neutral NAO is enuff to snow in Feb. A big +nao can only "easily" be offset with a big ridge out west and perfect trough axis in the east. I'd like to think a +pna takes over for a while at some point in Feb. The idea has drifted but can most certainly snap back. I'm not making any predictions or spiking anything. It could turn and rip for 6 straight weeks up and down 95. But it tuff to expect that at this point. I'll just get real happy if it does but until the personality switches, it's hard to bet against it. At this point...we are now hecs hunting and not pattern hunting but I believe Feb 15-45th will offer a window for one big east coast storm. We have had alot of moisture bombs this winter....some cold....some-ao and -nao....I believe at least once...It will all come together. Probably later than anyone thought but it will come Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 32 minutes ago, Ji said: At this point...we are now hecs hunting and not pattern hunting but I believe Feb 15-45th will offer a window for one big east coast storm. We have had alot of moisture bombs this winter....some cold....some-ao and -nao....I believe at least once...It will all come together. Probably later than anyone thought but it will come Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Pretty much what I'm thinking too. There's a lot of winter left. I'm just guessing based on what I've seen over the years. If we have another compressed week of winter with a moderate event followed by a decent or big one, this winter will get a B grade minimum from me. A 2-3 week favorable stretch has been completely elusive so far. Might happen but forces seem against 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 35 minutes ago, Ji said: At this point...we are now hecs hunting and not pattern hunting but I believe Feb 15-45th will offer a window for one big east coast storm. We have had alot of moisture bombs this winter....some cold....some-ao and -nao....I believe at least once...It will all come together. Probably later than anyone thought but it will come Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Thanks man, good insight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 @CAPE you’ve done a great job explaining I just wanted to add visual to what you’re saying. look at these two weeks on the gefs ext. what’s the difference? week 3 Week 5 The pacific configuration is similar. Actually the jet is more extended week 5! What! But how….because the nao flipped which changes the downstream reaction to the same pacific pattern. Like Cape said there are so many moving parts. But to generalize central and east based Ninos the jet will be extended a lot. But that works provided the nao is negative. 1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 all had epic periods kick started by a jet extension. True west based Modoki ninos can roll without blocking because the jet extensions are rather tame and can set up a more western leaning pac trough which in turn leads to a perfect epo pna ridge and we can roll without any nao help. Years like 2003 and 2015 fell in this category. But that was never the gameplan this year. We need nao help. The sudden and drastic flip in the nao is what turned things on its head. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 For those tracking we have a short window as the pna ridge first goes up before it spreads east to maybe sneak in a threat. Around the 30-31. After that the eps days the pattern flips back favorable around Feb 10-12. Gefs more like 15-18. Keep in mind I’m talking about the long wave pattern. If the continent gets torched and we need 2-3 weeks to build cold again after the pattern changes…well the the clock starts to become a problem! Let’s hope later in winter we can work with the crap air mass left behind or cold can build south faster! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: For those tracking we have a short window as the pna ridge first goes up before it spreads east to maybe sneak in a threat. Around the 30-31. After that the eps days the pattern flips back favorable around Feb 10-12. Gefs more like 15-18. Keep in mind I’m talking about the long wave pattern. If the continent gets torched and we need 2-3 weeks to build cold again after the pattern changes…well the the clock starts to become a problem! Let’s hope later in winter we can work with the crap air mass left behind or cold can build south faster! This would be a respectable look for the second week of Feb. The advertised h5 pattern becomes even more favorable beyond that, like the GEFSX panel you posted above. We have seen these looks persistently from the extended products, but it makes (more) sense given it's later in winter and the Nino should be weakening some. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty much what I'm thinking too. There's a lot of winter left. I'm just guessing based on what I've seen over the years. If we have another compressed week of winter with a moderate event followed by a decent or big one, this winter will get a B grade minimum from me. A 2-3 week favorable stretch has been completely elusive so far. Might happen but forces seem against Gun to head, I think we get another 7-10 day period that has a small event on the front and a MECS-scale event in the back, although maybe with more mixing in the metros than we’d prefer. Then another 1-2 smallish events after into the first 2 weeks of March. If it played out like that, most of us would be 100-125% of climo. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Goofy ass evolution that will never happen, but 6z gfs gets it done Jan 30-31 It's happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: It's happening I mean, that’s the peak of peak climo, so if we can get some fluke amidst an otherwise bad pattern, that’s the time for it to happen. Messy/mixed/flawed events are a normal part of climo for us! 2” that gets washed away, tail end slop following a rainer like December…they’re not glamorous, but that’s how we get to climo most times it happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Pretty much what I'm thinking too. There's a lot of winter left. I'm just guessing based on what I've seen over the years. If we have another compressed week of winter with a moderate event followed by a decent or big one, this winter will get a B grade minimum from me. A 2-3 week favorable stretch has been completely elusive so far. Might happen but forces seem against We have a had a pattern that has been tracking threats since Dec 29..so about 22 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 It's happening Feel like everything has been delayed about 2 weeks this year from seasonal models…but not denied 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The GFS is doing its normal run to run disco from Jan. 30 - Feb 5. Regarding a possible late winter pattern, the Euro Weeklies more or less paint a January thaw beginning early week and extending thru Feb 5. Could be mild and wet. A developing plus PNA encourages eastern troughiness and lower heights from Feb. 15 - March 5. If that verifies, late Feb. into March could be quite interesting. Experts, please tell me why this wouldn't work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Goofy ass evolution that will never happen, but 6z gfs gets it done Jan 30-31 It doesn’t make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, Ji said: We have a had a pattern that has been tracking threats since Dec 29..so about 22 days! Yes but the start of that period was all perfect track rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Gun to head, I think we get another 7-10 day period that has a small event on the front and a MECS-scale event in the back, although maybe with more mixing in the metros than we’d prefer. Then another 1-2 smallish events after into the first 2 weeks of March. If it played out like that, most of us would be 100-125% of climo. As long as one of those small march events for you is my annual 10” wet snow bomb up here I’ll take it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I mean, that’s the peak of peak climo, so if we can get some fluke amidst an otherwise bad pattern, that’s the time for it to happen. Messy/mixed/flawed events are a normal part of climo for us! 2” that gets washed away, tail end slop following a rainer like December…they’re not glamorous, but that’s how we get to climo most times it happens. I don’t like the methodology behind that chart. It used way too many locations. And there is mention of the correlation value just the mean. The mean can be skewed by a huge storm somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I think we need to start wiring about flooding over the next 15 days. Anyone else think this?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 One of the worst snow charts I’ve ever seen. Who was expecting this heading into prime February Natural global warming cycles suck 1 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, Ji said: One of the worst snow charts I’ve ever seen. Who was expecting this heading into prime February Natural global warming cycles suck Bait 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Bait Who is the master of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Ji said: Who is the master of it? Fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 13 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: I think we need to start wiring about flooding over the next 15 days. Anyone else think this? . Tell Stormy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Tell Stormy In the 22 years I've owned my house, the only flood threat that remotely got my interest was when the Needwood dam was thinking about popping back in 06. They evacuated the blowout zone so I was rooting for it for the sheer spectacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GFS is pretty close for next Sunday. That is a stout HP over the top. Better timing and its a good storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS is pretty close for next Sunday. That is a stout HP over the top. Better timing and its a good storm. I kind of fear that there's gonna be an inevitable TPV lobe intruding on that progression that makes it cut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 24 minutes ago, Ji said: One of the worst snow charts I’ve ever seen. Who was expecting this heading into prime February Natural global warming cycles suck Here, I'll throw ya a bone. 6z Gfs obviously figured out a jacked up way to get it done but not much needed here and it's a week away. GFS is right in the pocket of similar setups. Maybe one of the rain waves next week kicks the boundary east enuff to have more cold available. This window originally looked like rain to maine and Buffalo. Notsomuch anymore. The trough is going to dig and there are multiple waves ejecting. For now, it's still low prob/flawed but no chance models have timing figured out. If we have something to track next week it will soften the blow of what may be down the pike during first 5-10 days of Feb. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Tell Stormy Nothing but noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here, I'll throw ya a bone. 6z Gfs obviously figured out a jacked up way to get it done but not much needed here and it's a week away. GFS is right in the pocket of similar setups. Maybe one of the rain waves next week kicks the boundary east enuff to have more cold available. This window originally looked like rain to maine and Buffalo. Notsomuch anymore. The trough is going to dig and there are multiple waves ejecting. For now, it's still low prob/flawed but no chance models have timing figured out. If we have something to track next week it will soften the blow of what may be down the pike during first 5-10 days of Feb. Yeah, definitely make it alot easier to handle. Really rooting for at least a 1-4 inch event before then. To add to your positivity , 2015 was basically snowless until near Valentine's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Yeah, definitely make it alot easier to handle. Really rooting for at least a 1-4 inch event before then. To add to your positivity , 2015 was basically snowless until near Valentine's Day. Some would tell you 9 years is “84 years…” in the meteorology time continuum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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