psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I do not think Feb 1-10 will be a no hope torch. But, the pattern progression is being delayed by the slow down of the Pacific forcing migrating east. It's stalling in the western pacific for about a week. This is leaving us in kind of a blah pattern in early February. I could see an STJ wave cutting under and enough cold around with that PNA ridge to get something to work if we're lucky. But the PNA ridge looks rather modest now, and the +++NAO is likely going to make it difficult to be cold enough until we get the more ideal pacific, and its likely a moot point anyways because once the wave starts to progress into the central pacific it kick starts the process of tanking the NAO again anyways. We're likely looking at Feb 10-15th or so before the pattern gets REALLY good again. I know this is not what anyone wants to hear, patience isn't the best virtue of some here, but Mid Feb is NOT too late to pull out a good finish. 1958 really got going mid Feb. And before someone says but its warmer now...2015 got going mid Feb too and that was not that long ago. You know I will lean on warming when I think its a part of the equation, but Feb and March are being affected by warming way less that earlier in winter...assuming the waters ever do cool...right now places in the tropical Atlantic are running normal temps for July FFS. 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Early February looked better a week ago. Compared to now. The only good thing is this might prove to @Stormchaserchuck1 that a +NAO isnt the answer. In that case the +NAO is wrecking an otherwise good pacific. We need BOTH! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I am not being a pessimist just trying to set my expectations. MJO stalling in 7 late January is not good...hopefully we see a trend toward 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I am not being a pessimist just trying to set my expectations. MJO stalling in 7 late January is not good...hopefully we see a trend toward 8. That is related to what I said in my post above...and why the pattern suddenly took a turn for the worse on guidance early Feb. The wave stalls and on some guidance does a loop in 6/7 before resuming. That delays the pattern progression by like a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That is related to what I said in my post above...and why the pattern suddenly took a turn for the worse on guidance early Feb. The wave stalls and on some guidance does a loop in 6/7 before resuming. That delays the pattern progression by like a week. I'll believe that when I see it. MJO guidance is notorious for too slow/too weak progression. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'll believe that when I see it. MJO guidance is notorious for too slow/too weak progression. If it speeds up it certainly would change our prospects for early Feb. There is a correlation with the MJO moving through 7 and the NAO tanking. I don't think that its a coincidence that as guidance started to stall the wave in 6 or barely into 7 that was when the delay in getter the NAO to flip started to show up. But maybe the pattern progression was being rushed before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'll believe that when I see it. MJO guidance is notorious for too slow/too weak progression. Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If it speeds up it certainly would change our prospects for early Feb. There is a correlation with the MJO moving through 7 and the NAO tanking. I don't think that its a coincidence that as guidance started to stall the wave in 6 or barely into 7 that was when the delay in getter the NAO to flip started to show up. But maybe the pattern progression was being rushed before. I feel as if more members don’t have it stalling today than yesterday, there’s a few more now blasting it through 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I feel as if more members don’t have it stalling today than yesterday, there’s a few more now blasting it through 7 Could be why the 12z GEFS suddenly flips the NAO negative at the very end! We have to see if that trend continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I do not think Feb 1-10 will be a no hope torch. But, the pattern progression is being delayed by the slow down of the Pacific forcing migrating east. It's stalling in the western pacific for about a week. This is leaving us in kind of a blah pattern in early February. I could see an STJ wave cutting under and enough cold around with that PNA ridge to get something to work if we're lucky. But the PNA ridge looks rather modest now, and the +++NAO is likely going to make it difficult to be cold enough until we get the more ideal pacific, and its likely a moot point anyways because once the wave starts to progress into the central pacific it kick starts the process of tanking the NAO again anyways. We're likely looking at Feb 10-15th or so before the pattern gets REALLY good again. I know this is not what anyone wants to hear, patience isn't the best virtue of some here, but Mid Feb is NOT too late to pull out a good finish. 1958 really got going mid Feb. And before someone says but its warmer now...2015 got going mid Feb too and that was not that long ago. You know I will lean on warming when I think its a part of the equation, but Feb and March are being affected by warming way less that earlier in winter...assuming the waters ever do cool...right now places in the tropical Atlantic are running normal temps for July FFS. Ji, this is only two paragraphs. Are you cool with that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: Ji, this is only two paragraphs. Are you cool with that? It's the PSU Cliffs Notes version! 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I wonder if Feb 1 to 7 is just a colder version than Jan 1-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Historically, Nino winters are not wet, wall to wall. We have been wet for 60 days. This is likely a time-out. I predict a wild and woolly period from Feb 1 - March 25. This would mimic 1958 which psu refers to. Mid Feb. thru Mid March of 1958 was historically brutal, breaking many snowfall records across Virginia/Maryland. We may do it again.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The op gfs improved the long range, sped things up… let’s see if gefs follows . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Heisy said: The op gfs improved the long range, sped things up… let’s see if gefs follows . Heisy! What’s your thoughts for February? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 16 minutes ago, Ji said: I wonder if Feb 1 to 7 is just a colder version than Jan 1-7 I think the pattern leading in and out are different, but I think the idea of a transitional period makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The only good thing is this might prove to @Stormchaserchuck1 that a +NAO isnt the answer. In that case the +NAO is wrecking an otherwise good pacific. We need BOTH! In this example, the +NAO is a warm variable, yes. In the 3-5" snowfall, -NAO was a factor too, yes. Let's see if the +PNA/-EPO/+NAO and -PNA/+EPO/-NAO correlates in February.. the pattern is about 0.40 (+40% of the time) together in the last 5-11 years. And I see a high probability for this to happen next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, stormy said: Historically, Nino winters are not wet, wall to wall. We have been wet for 60 days. This is likely a time-out. The Globe has more precipitable water right now than it has ever had before (on satellite record), even into the higher latitudes.. 15-16 is #2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Could be why the 12z GEFS suddenly flips the NAO negative at the very end! We have to see if that trend continues. Stratosphere warming at this time of the year, correlates to -NAO in +20 days (happens about 2/3 times). https://ibb.co/z84pgX1 Today and tomorrow are the peaks in 10mb warming I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18z GEFS has one heck of a +NAO Jan 22-28.. +2-3std. I went back to 1948, and found the top 20 matching analogs for NAO events on those dates: Positive analogs: 1949, 1950, 1957, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1983, 1989, 1990, 1997 Negative analogs: 1958, 1964, 1966, 1975, 1980, 1987, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2021 I found that the NAO actually reverses the first 2 weeks of February! *This is interesting because 80-85% of the time when you are doing a roll forward with a strong one-sided atmospheric state, it usually continues. Feb 1st roll forward 500mb: https://ibb.co/1J075Z9 Feb 3 roll forward 500mb: https://ibb.co/4jWSWVx Feb 5: https://ibb.co/1qVZJFB Feb 7: https://ibb.co/3cCq7wC <- stronger -NAO signal appears Feb 9: https://ibb.co/kMwLd66 <- Strongest -NAO signal Feb 11: https://ibb.co/Vxm6pg2 Feb 13: https://ibb.co/NTDfhpJ Feb 4-13 -NAO matches current ongoing 10mb warming probable time to "downwell" and impact 500mb US Temps: https://ibb.co/PMZVS6s 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It doesn’t matter at all really but I like seeing the GFS throw out a “trackable” bone day 9. Stretches with truly nothing are so boring 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Ensembles have something trackable for late next week into the weekend with consolidated energy in the STJ undercutting the western ridge and moving eastward. There is a bit of a 50-50 low leading in but with no NA blocking it will be on the move. Not a bad look at the surface with some indication of HP to the N and a low developing on the NC coast. The big problem is lack of cold at this point. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: It's the PSU Cliffs Notes version! I dont want Cliffs Notes. I enjoy PSU's Dissertations! Please, PSU, please tell us all about it! I am going to take massive notes then record the entire Tome with happiness and pure joy! I'd also love it if all the Meteorologists would do dissertations on the weather, using full-on jargon. I understand it all and could easily hold court with all the Mets. I WUB THIS STUFF with all my heart!!!!!! I dont just want PSU's Tome, I demand ALL the meteorologists' Tomes, all 985 decillion of them! I want every last one! I'll spend DAYS ON END studying them! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 13 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I do not think Feb 1-10 will be a no hope torch. But, the pattern progression is being delayed by the slow down of the Pacific forcing migrating east. It's stalling in the western pacific for about a week. This is leaving us in kind of a blah pattern in early February. I could see an STJ wave cutting under and enough cold around with that PNA ridge to get something to work if we're lucky. But the PNA ridge looks rather modest now, and the +++NAO is likely going to make it difficult to be cold enough until we get the more ideal pacific, and its likely a moot point anyways because once the wave starts to progress into the central pacific it kick starts the process of tanking the NAO again anyways. We're likely looking at Feb 10-15th or so before the pattern gets REALLY good again. I know this is not what anyone wants to hear, patience isn't the best virtue of some here, but Mid Feb is NOT too late to pull out a good finish. 1958 really got going mid Feb. And before someone says but its warmer now...2015 got going mid Feb too and that was not that long ago. You know I will lean on warming when I think its a part of the equation, but Feb and March are being affected by warming way less that earlier in winter...assuming the waters ever do cool...right now places in the tropical Atlantic are running normal temps for July FFS. Its not that we aren't patient people here. Its thats delayed but not denied usually morphs into=Denied. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Its not that we aren't patient people here. Its thats delayed but not denied usually morphs into=Denied.What got denied. The Dec pattern I think did change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Heisy! What’s your thoughts for February? We’re gonna have another opportunity stretch at some point, personally think it’ll be in the mid to late month range. See if the SSW helps us in anyway. Didn’t love end of eps last night, little can kick. I wouldn’t wipe out the first week of Feb yet. Let’s see how the LR looks in about a week . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 40 minutes ago, Ji said: What got denied. The Dec pattern I think did change The pattern did change. The upcoming "relaxation" may be longer than originally advertised. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 41 minutes ago, Heisy said: We’re gonna have another opportunity stretch at some point, personally think it’ll be in the mid to late month range. See if the SSW helps us in anyway. Didn’t love end of eps last night, little can kick. I wouldn’t wipe out the first week of Feb yet. Let’s see how the LR looks in about a week . Don’t like this… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Don’t like this… A few weeks ago they were showing a mid-month relax/warmer pattern. And yet, here we are this week. Don’t have any confidence in LR beyond 1 week to 10 days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: A few weeks ago they were showing a mid-month relax/warmer pattern. And yet, here we are this week. Don’t have any confidence in LR beyond 1 week to 10 days. Indeed. Here was the Dec 26th Euro Weeklies run for Jan 15-22, warmer than normal in most of the E half of the US just 20 days in advance of what’s in reality a very cold week for most of the country: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts