WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 100 pages is enough. Let’s keep going into an epic February. Mods please pin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 100 pages is enough. Let’s keep going into an epic February. Mods please pin Let's bring this home so we don't have to hear anymore of Ji's incessant complaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Bump to get it closer to top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 BUMP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Bringing the good mojo with Winterwxluvr starting this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 We will need about three days for the models to realize that we started a new thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 please post meteorology in this thread. 7 posts of nothing but bs so far 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Ji said: please post meteorology in this thread. 7 posts of nothing but bs so far Looks dry. Where's the cold. Next. Better? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12z GEFS with the first signs of Blocking showing up. TPV dropping further south as a result. Would prefer not to have to deal with a TPV center over Hudson Bay again....hopefully we can get this to slide east over time. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 anything short of a 30 inch Feb 1 to March 15 window will be a disaster. This is our last chance of snow till 2029 per PSU 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 12z GEFS with the first signs of Blocking showing up. TPV dropping further south as a result. Would prefer not to have to deal with a TPV center over Hudson Bay again....hopefully we can get this to slide east over time. Was about to post something about this. It’s not a big change from recent runs around the end of the month, but has faster and stronger return to high latitude blocking. Gradient pattern suggested with cold pressing from the north. I could get into that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Long range on the models look like shit. But I think we already knew this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Long range on the models look like shit. But I think we already knew this? I haven’t been paying attention much, but I like the looks around the end of January. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Long range on the models look like shit. But I think we already knew this? we are not tracking anything until Jan 29th....so thats why you should be focused on. Anything before that is shut the blinds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 12z GEFS with the first signs of Blocking showing up. TPV dropping further south as a result. Would prefer not to have to deal with a TPV center over Hudson Bay again....hopefully we can get this to slide east over time. Please no. With the difficulty that badly positioned tpv gave us this month, geels like that would make a big dog more difficult...Sure we could get events like Monday, but not sure you wanna live like that with the SS waves not being able to amplify as much, NS flying around...ack. A better position would be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Was about to post something about this. It’s not a big change from recent runs around the end of the month, but has faster and stronger return to high latitude blocking. Gradient pattern suggested with cold pressing from the north. I could get into that. Absolutely. Always hard to tell if these are head fakes or if it is truly picking up on a return to a favorable HL look. Wait and see. At least it isn't 50 degrees and brown outside while we discuss winter returning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Please no. Feels like that would make a big dog more difficult... It would be more challenging but it would certainly feel like winter. Amped systems cut and we hope for timing something...sort of what we just went through. Others more knowledgeable could probably parse potential ground truth outcomes better than I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, poolz1 said: It would be more challenging but it would certainly feel like winter. Amped systems cut and we hope for timing something...sort of what we just went through. Others more knowledgeable could probably parse potential ground truth outcomes better than I can. And any other stretch, I'd take that. But there's more at stake for this winter coming of the last 7 years. We don't get to above average through nickels and dimes. Yes, I'm thankful for those don't get me wrong...but man we need the big dog. And a setup like this month with cutters followed by messy wave interactions we need to get a bit lucky with may not get it done, imo But I'll defer as well to those more knowledgeable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Do any medium-longer range models show NAO going negative? Seems like we're staying positive at least a while. I'm still in the Feb 4-5 MECS camp. This comment will make me famous in two weeks. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 34 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 12z GEFS with the first signs of Blocking showing up. TPV dropping further south as a result. Would prefer not to have to deal with a TPV center over Hudson Bay again....hopefully we can get this to slide east over time. If it were to center there long enough we would likely get a hit. Yes I am on the record that ideally we want it near 50/50 and we do...but keep in mind this last cycle it initially dropped into western Canada then shifted there for a time, and we did just get a 3-5" snow with it there! Then it moves out pretty fast. Ideally I want it out of the way, but I would take it there over a +NAO. We see the +NAO for about a week on guidance with a good pac and its ruining it! I see the same correlations Chuck does...but I disagree that the fix is a +NAO. That just makes it worse. The real fix is we need to get a less -PNA with a -NAO. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, weathercoins said: Do any medium-longer range models show NAO going negative? Seems like we're staying positive at least a while. I'm still in the Feb 4-5 MECS camp. This comment will make me famous in two weeks. Often times in the -EPO pattern you default to the -AO/+NAO idea...we saw that in 93-94 and 13-14 or was it 14-15? I forget...but the EPO heights sometimes can hook NE if the EPO ridge is positioned more east of where the GEFS shows it so you end up with above normal heights over the pole and a -AO but the PV gets shunted into E Canada and extends over Greenland so you get a +NAO. The GEPS sort of shows this idea at 336 hours but its not really a true depiction of what we saw in those 2 winters for large stretches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 52 minutes ago, Ji said: anything short of a 30 inch Feb 1 to March 15 window will be a disaster. This is our last chance of snow till 2029 per PSU Great meteorology. 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 yes, getting 1.5x your average in a month and change is the bar for a disaster or not! very realistic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 46 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yes, getting 1.5x your average in a month and change is the bar for a disaster or not! very realistic lol i am way below average if you are referring to me. @psuhoffman...his snowfall totals are tragic compared to where he should be. How is NYC doing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, Ji said: lol i am way below average if you are referring to me. @psuhoffman...his snowfall totals are tragic compared to where he should be. How is NYC doing? We have a crybaby thread. Check it out. They need some leadership over there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 So haven't looked at the extended EPS in awhile, does not good until mid February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 40 minutes ago, Weather Will said: So haven't looked at the extended EPS in awhile, does not good until mid February? what did it look like the week before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: yes, getting 1.5x your average in a month and change is the bar for a disaster or not! very realistic In fairness where he lives averages like 40" in moderate to strong Nino's with a -QBO. And we've pissed away Dec and likely are close to done except maybe some minor snowfall Friday in January. So he is right...for this winter to get to what we expected it will take a 30" Feb/Mar. It's not about month to month averages. Our area gets most of our snow in big big big short periods with long stretches of total crap in between. If you look at many of our winters where we get above average, and I think we all predicted that (all 3 of us in this particular convo I mean) a lot of it came in a crazy month. Look at some of the stretches in the analogs to this winter. Feb/Mar 58, Jan 66, Jan 87, Feb 2010, Jan 2016. Each of the analogs had a month where he got close to or over 30". So I actually agree with him totally here. My forecast will be a total and complete bust POS unless we do get a 30" plus Feb/Mar period. And if we are grading this winter on the sliding scale of what we should expect from a -QBO Nino during ascending solar, if he does not get to at least 30" this winter is a fail. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, Ji said: what did it look like the week before? Early February looked better a week ago. Compared to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Early February looked better a week ago. Compared to now. its not a terrible look...the NAO is the biggest difference..the flow appears to be similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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