Frog Town Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I've been home from school(I'm a teacher) now for 2 days and I'm bored. We haven't had one of these for a while and a few models are hinting at some phasing forming a SLP over WV. This could add some enhancement throwing a bone to snow starved portions of the sub. Let's go! Pretty consistent message coming from the hi-res stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Consider this a bonus round if it actually pans out decently. Just please not the fgen close miss north then south or some shit like LOT mentions 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 riding it 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I’ll take any of those outcomes. Will be cool to see the drifting in the fields that I’m working by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 To be fair all of these maps include tonight but between tonight and thursday into friday it should be a solid hit of 4-8" across most of southern MI, Chicago should get some lake effect that would push them higher 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Pretty nice not to have to worry about mixing or low ratios for all areas with these waves. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 42 minutes ago, Stebo said: To be fair all of these maps include tonight but between tonight and thursday into friday it should be a solid hit of 4-8" across most of southern MI, Chicago should get some lake effect that would push them higher Rookie error on my part. Was kind of hoping we could keep it going between the two, but that's wishful thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 45 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Rookie error on my part. Was kind of hoping we could keep it going between the two, but that's wishful thinking. There will be a bit of a lull but not that long, and clippers tend to move in quicker than forecast. Either way it looks like we will get some solid snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Given it’s originating from up around Seattle (Pac NW/BC), it’s more of a hybrid type of deal and not a clipper.Might want to puts some dates in the title too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Interesting little warm air advection/frongogenesis driven snow potential on the front end of things tonight into Thursday...I expect the "clipper" (more hybrid) and lake effect Thursday night into Friday to perform quite well. Soundings suggest a deep DGZ and good snow growth with the clipper. Instability will be deep over the lakes beneath the lobe of the PV. The primary shortwave responsible for this system...can call it a clipper I guess, it does move over southern Alberta...has Pacific origins. It is modeled to interact positively with both a small lead wave in the subtropical jet over the Ohio Valley Thursday night but also the incoming lobe of the PV. Models have converged on this idea of a positive interaction between these features occurring Thursday night into Friday morning as the "clipper" takes on a negative tilt. The addition of moisture from the sub-tropical piece (and a bit of moisture from the Pacific), along with the increase baroclinicity provided as the polar vortex and Arctic air come in, allows for potential for a large swath of moderate, high-ratio snow accumulations. This has more upside than a standard clipper. Note in the 500mb loop that the PV lobe swings through the southern Great Lakes through Saturday, bringing in deep cold air and allowing for strong instability to develop over the lakes. This instability, combined with lingering synoptic moisture and lift as a pronounced inverted trough axis hangs back into the Great Lakes in the low-mid levels, will support robust lake effect snow well into Saturday. This should be a fun sequence that produces fluffy snow in a large area and is ripe for mesoscale surprises, especially near the lakes. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 LOT’s morning discussion is a juicy read re: LE setup. Depending where it sets up, may make a short drive into the core on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Pick your poison 12 GFS: 15z RAP: 12z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 trends have been drier today sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: trends have been drier today sad Quite the opposite, actually. GFS, Euro and GEM (Excluding the LE) are all the wettest they have been for Thur/Fri. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: trends have been drier today sad Tonight’s northern fgen band has basically vanished on hi res short term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 IWX hoists Winter Storm Watch for several counties for the lake-effect. I suspect LOT will do the same for at least Porter County. IWX says Northern LaPorte and Southwest Berrien Counties are favored to see at least a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 LOT forecast is snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Frontogenic magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 42 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Frontogenic magic Jackpot toledo. With these ratios, wouldn't be surprised to see someone stack a half a foot in the band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 hours ago, Frog Town said: I've been home from school(I'm a teacher) now for 2 days and I'm bored. We haven't had one of these for a while and a few models are hinting at some phasing forming a SLP over WV. This could add some enhancement throwing a bone to snow starved portions of the sub. Let's go! Pretty consistent message coming from the hi-res stuff. Here's the newest NWS snow map, which is sort of non-continuous around Toledo. It's much higher than the approximately 1" that last night's models were saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Chinook said: Here's the newest NWS snow map, which is sort of non-continuous around Toledo. It's much higher than the approximately 1" that last night's models were saying. Really questioning tonight's band of snow in the Toledo area. Do you feel the RAP is accurate regarding a couple of inches by 11am Thursday. Need to make decisions regarding school closures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, Frog Town said: Really questioning tonight's band of snow in the Toledo area. Do you feel the RAP is accurate regarding a couple of inches by 11am Thursday. Need to make decisions regarding school closures. The GFS has about 0.1" QPF by 18z or 1:00PM, but the NAM 12km/3km have less, like 0.01" to 0.03" QPF by that time, but the HRRR gets snowier by 18z. So I guess it's a bit of a battle of NAM vs everybody. It's been kind of a long time since I actually went down to the 0.01" values of QPF to actually care about something, because, you know, rain doesn't make a sheet of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Is it just me or are these recent model runs trending north? Was hoping to actually see the ground covered for once here before the warmth returns next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Yeah 0z runs no beuno. Lol. Of course better I80 north. Shocker. They get the front wing of precip and just a glancing blow here. Was looking solid for 2-4in here but now probably an 1-1.5in at best. Is it Spring yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Tonight’s round looks less promising. 1” looks near the ceiling rather than the floor locally. Tomorrow remains more promising, but yet trends are a little iffy. Feeling there’s still a reasonable shot to eclipse the single event “record” of 2.4” for 23/24 season. I’ll go T tonight & 2.9” with second round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 really dawg... little desperate now. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 00z Euro 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 06z NAM: 06z HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Had about 0.5” overnight. Tonight’s system looks promising for widespread 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 congrats la porte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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