NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: How feasible do you think any interaction is with that? Especially given we're at relatively short leads. I mean the energy you're referring to isn't THAT far out in front of the s/w. I think we delete the thread until the storm does what we want 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 GFS is basically an ots solution. Euro kind of is, too. CMC seems iffy with the low deepening that quickly. I think expectations of a light event is probably the move at this point. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: GFS is basically an ots solution. Euro kind of is, too. CMC seems iffy with the low deepening that quickly. I think expectations of a light event is probably the move at this point. It’s Tuesday and the Euro took a big jump. Not ready for this type of quiet resignation 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 NAM is leading the way right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s Tuesday and the Euro took a big jump. Not ready for this type of quiet resignation Yeah, we’re OK, just one run. It was dry AF though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 NAM will save us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Yeah, we’re OK, just one run. It was dry AF though S/w coming down was dug actually further south than 12z, but the trough seemed broader then we'd like. Need more interaction of those energies. Close. That's why the runs can be juiced then dry, a little difference has a big impact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Nothing really changed set up wise, the general idea is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s Tuesday and the Euro took a big jump. Not ready for this type of quiet resignation I'm just saying as-is, the coastal on both the gfs/euro develops and heads practically due east. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2024011618&fh=69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: S/w coming down was dug actually further south than 12z, but the trough seemed broader then we'd like. Need more interaction of those energies. Close. That's why the runs can be juiced then dry, a little difference has a big impact. Interaction is the key, need that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Last two storms models took until 24-36 hours out to get it right. That’s the pattern so expect the same. If start time is 12 noon Friday then noon Thursday reveals the deal with some non tremendous wavering possible by midnight beforehand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: S/w coming down was dug actually further south than 12z, but the trough seemed broader then we'd like. Need more interaction of those energies. Close. That's why the runs can be juiced then dry, a little difference has a big impact. It looks like a Norlun trough setup (Philly disco mentioned it)...maybe that's the path to victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 19 minutes ago, 87storms said: GFS is basically an ots solution. Euro kind of is, too. CMC seems iffy with the low deepening that quickly. I think expectations of a light event is probably the move at this point. Right now until noon Thursday the models are engaged in waffle mode. Every six hours will move back and forth showing DC proper getting from 0.5” to 5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Just now, WEATHER53 said: Right now until noon Thursday the model are engaged in waffle mode. Every six hours will move back and forth showing DC proper getting from 0.5” to 5”. You're probably not wrong lol. I'm rooting for a moderate event...and a diggier vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2024 Author Share Posted January 16, 2024 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s Tuesday and the Euro took a big jump. Not ready for this type of quiet resignation This. Way too early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 WB 12Z EPS snow mean and 18Z GEFS plus 12Z GDPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1747382758647742514?s=20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This. Way too early for that. What one “off” run does to mf after 6 consecutive good trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 4 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1747382758647742514?s=20 That's really the one thing that kept this from being an actual big dog, that positively tilted lobe and energy racing out in front. It's still close to being more as @psuhoffman said, but time is a little limited on getting what we need. A small change though would have big implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS snow mean and 18Z GEFS plus 12Z GDPS Who you gonna pick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: What one “off” run does to mf after 6 consecutive good trends Pump the brakes. I was making an analysis because it was getting quiet to prompt analysis...didn't once say "it won't snow". I said my expectations are of a light event. I could lie and say my expectations are for a nor'easter (but that's a want). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 37 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: How feasible do you think any interaction is with that? Especially given we're at relatively short leads. I mean the energy you're referring to isn't THAT far out in front of the s/w. A full capture phase might be out of reach but a trend towards more interaction maybe. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 1 hour ago, Ji said: what are you going to do the week of Jan 25-30? Five-post you through the end of winter?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS snow mean and 18Z GEFS plus 12Z GDPS Sorta brings a new meaning to life on the edge. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 My 4 model blend is up to 2.00" for late Thursday night/Friday for Augusta County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 First flakes are only 48 hours away if that initial band Thursday evening materializes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 4 minutes ago, HighStakes said: First flakes are only 48 hours away if that initial band Thursday evening materializes. Yeah, we need some pretty big changes in the next 24 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, we need some pretty big changes in the next 24 hours or so. Still have a shot for improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinGTown Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Stand and stuff nacho cheese shells and some soft tortillas too. See you in an hour. We can talk about the upcoming HECS How many Tacos will I get in Georgetown??? Seriously, nobody has been cooking for 3 hours! I don't think I'm getting any tacos tonight! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 10 minutes ago, TinGTown said: How many Tacos will I get in Georgetown??? Seriously, nobody has been cooking for 3 hours! I don't think I'm getting any tacos tonight! Did you go buy a poncho and sand bags for the upcoming floods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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