Interstate Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Vort pass continues to edge north with each run. it's almost over us now. Yeah... you could see it early on the H5 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Law of averages - We get better trends into the event last storm and this storm it gets worse leading in We had good trends but we peaked too soon yesterday. however, my 0% scientific opinion says at 0z we actually see this come back our way a bit. I said that last week and that was the start of our comeback. Trying to replicate all the variables. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 N.A.M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Junkie Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 5 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: right where we want it! That hole looks all too familar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Reminds me of when my kids dry out my dry erase markers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Guys, what do we do to rescue this? We have the pattern temporary flipping on the back side of this. If we want to be a snow town, we have to activate our stops right now. resting our hopes on the icon jma and rgem is a very risky proposition. Do we gotta start getting drunk like last weekend? @stormtracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Uncanny how the northern trend is a thing. 5 days out, we want the storm 250 miles south. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 3K is the NE MD special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ugly run. On to the GFS You might need to work your magic again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 This is a northern stream system, they almost always trend N. Not to be confused with our SS s/w that don’t always come NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Vort pass continues to edge north with each run. it's almost over us now. Yesterday I showed how that was trending our way. That trend the 24 hours previous was why it started to look promising. Unfortunately it’s been bleeding the wrong way since. Often it’s missed because it’s incremental each 6 hours and doesn’t always happen consistently model to model. If you play the “look for whatever gives me hope” game it’s also hard to see. But if you pull back and compare to 24 or 36 hours ago it’s gets hard to ignore why it’s going sideways for us. this is the opposite what we wanted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: New thread? It worked last time. Maybe with you suggesting it, it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yesterday I showed how that was trending our way. That trend the 24 hours previous was why it started to look promising. Unfortunately it’s been bleeding the wrong way since. Often it’s missed because it’s incremental each 6 hours and doesn’t always happen consistently model to model. If you play the “look for whatever gives me hope” game it’s also hard to see. But if you pull back and compare to 24 or 36 hours ago it’s gets hard to ignore why it’s going sideways for us. this is the opposite what we wanted. It just almost never comes back S with a northern stream wave too… i don’t even know if our 100% successful methods will work on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 If the icon cuts qpf 25% or more from its solid 12z run, this threads gotta go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Might not want to taint the track record of the second thread. This one may be a goner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 23 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Looks wet on the Gulf Stream through 8 am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It just almost never comes back S with a northern stream wave too… i don’t even know if our 100% successful methods will work on this The only times a NS wave has trended south it's been because it was suppressed by confluence becoming modeled too weak. It happened twice in March 2014. The problem is, and was true in both those cases, that also weakens the wave. One of those March 2014 storms was originally modeled as a 18-24" storm for PA. In the end it was a 4-8" storm in VA. This wave is so weak already that the suppression it might take to force it back south...would just mean there was no storm for anyone. Squashing it south of us doesn't really do us much good. I have almost NEVER seen a NS wave trend more "diggy" the last 72 hours which is what we actually need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 NAM really isn’t in decent range yet. Let’s see what the GooFus has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 What more could anyone say. My blend has dropped from 2.0 to .5 in 24 hrs.. Here comes the drought! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: This one might be unsalvageable Go ahead. And do pbp for the GFS...gym day. 0z really will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The only times a NS wave has trended south it's been because it was suppressed by confluence becoming modeled too weak. It happened twice in March 2014. The problem is, and was true in both those cases, that also weakens the wave. One of those March 2014 storms was originally modeled as a 18-24" storm for PA. In the end it was a 4-8" storm in VA. This wave is so weak already that the suppression it might take to force it back south...would just mean there was no storm for anyone. Squashing it south of us doesn't really do us much good. I have almost NEVER seen a NS wave trend more "diggy" the last 72 hours which is what we actually need. Man that's depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 2 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: Man that's depressing His analogs are accurate too, it just doesn’t happen for us with these types of systems. You have to use your buffer, we probably peaked on this 24 hours early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Go ahead. And do pbp for the GFS...gym day. 0z really will be telling Yesterday I was hopeful this would buck the typical outcome for a NS wave coming in from this trajectory. But I think now it's heading towards what we all knew in the back of our heads was most likely. Hope I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yesterday I was hopeful this would buck the typical outcome for a NS wave coming in from this trajectory. But I think now it's heading towards what we all knew in the back of our heads was most likely. Hope I'm wrong. Let’s just use this storm to pretend we’re angry at PSU, if I recall correctly 1/26/11 was the PSUhoffman storm back in the day? We can make this the f*** PSU storm? Then we can do PSU2 in February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 @StormyClearweather maybe if this storm comes back, @stormtrackerwill consider sharing his snap with you? trying to barter with the snow gods as we speak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 18z RGEM is a little dryer (EDIT: it's tough to really tell with this map) but still lots of light snow for dc and points north. Philly jackput with the inverted trough. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Let’s just use this storm to pretend we’re angry at PSU, if I recall correctly 1/26/11 was the PSUhoffman storm back in the day? We can make this the f*** PSU storm? Then we can do PSU2 in February? I stayed away from the thread for almost 3 model cycles and oddly it didn't seem like people were any more happy about their snow prospects going to crap. Is it perhaps that my analysis of our crappy outcomes is not what people are really upset about? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Graf model still on board https://x.com/miketfox5/status/1747719656025075846?s=46 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Just now, psuhoffman said: I stayed away from the thread for almost 3 model cycles and oddly it didn't seem like people were any more happy about their snow prospects going to crap. Is it perhaps that my analysis of our crappy outcomes is not what people are really upset about? It’s definitely not that lol. We just have to make up an excuse at this point. Getting a n/s wave to not put the nail in the coffin tonight is miracle work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: 18z RGEM is a little dryer (EDIT: it's tough to really tell with this map) but still lots of light snow for dc and points north. Philly jackput with the inverted trough. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=53&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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