DDweatherman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Smart idea starting a thread knowing if the models start going belly up, we can just start another thread. Although this is scientifically proven to be true & successful, I wouldn’t mind us to keep going straight upward with this one like 12z did 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Although this is scientifically proven to be true & successful, I wouldn’t mind us to keep going straight upward with this one like 12z did It's never failed. Sample Size: 1 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 26 minutes ago, yoda said: Hey man. that ones mine 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hey man. that ones mine You can use this one: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Thumbing my nose at anything under 6. Setting the bar high. Now meet the expectations storm. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeDeeHCue Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: It's never failed. Sample Size: 1 100% success rate. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: You can use this one: Is that Paul Bearer before he was Paul Bearer? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is that Paul Bearer before he was Paul Bearer? Lol Yes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 How much potential upside does this next threat have? Or have we already capped out on guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How much potential upside does this next threat have? Or have we already capped out on guidance? I could see this maxing out at a 6" - 9" event. 12 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Little bit of 850-700mb frontogenesis showing up on the EC (matches some of the high-res runs) between 00-09z Fri. Might be a sneaky narrow band that sets up ahead of the main event if it can top-down saturate enough. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 EPS juiced up. @Ralph Wiggum and to partially answer your question, here is the EPS 90% 10:1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Updated LWX AFD: Quote .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Renewed chances for snow Friday with another blast of cold air for the weekend. Another upper level trough of low pressure and its associated strong cold front look to pass through the area late Thursday night into much of Friday. This storm system looks to bring another round of wintry weather to the region. Current 12z ensemble/deterministic guidance shows a slightly stronger wave of low pressure compared to what we saw today. Temperatures will be slightly colder at the onset and even during the duration of this event compared to earlier in the week. Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF illustrate a low pressure system ejecting from the central Appalachians northeast toward the Virginia Tidewater and coastal Carolinas. The 12Z ECWMF is a bit stronger and features a bit more forcing/QPF compared to the GFS and GEM counterparts. With the low off to the south more cold air is readily available for a predominantly snow event for most locations. Some rain and perhaps freezing rain/sleet may mix in along and east of I-95 where warmer air could push in. As for accumulations, they should remain light, but will be highly dependent upon the track of the low pressure, moisture availability, and timing of precipitation (with the bulk falling potentially during the daylight hours). Confidence has increased somewhat per the 12z guidance, for a minor impact event, but will need to be further evaluated as we are 3 days out. Highs Friday look to remain below average with temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s. Behind the strong front and wave of low pressure comes another blast of Arctic air Friday night into Saturday. Lows Friday night will fall back into the single digits and teens with gusty northwesterly winds pushing wind chills into the single digits. By Saturday, low pressure will continue off the New England coast with northwesterly flow aiding in upslope snow over the Allegheny Front. Additional accumulations are expected in these locations with cold and windy conditions east of the mountains as strong high pressure returns to the region. Deepening low to the northeast and high pressure building into the Plains will feature a strong pressure gradient especially across the mountains. Will likely see gusty northwest winds Saturday and Sunday morning, which will bring continued feel like numbers in the teens and single digits. Below zero wind chills are likely over the mountains during this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I could see this maxing out at a 6" - 9" event. Gah damn, I like this EJ. to be fair, people who said Eskimo Joe was a deb need to understand, there hadn’t been a 1” snow at DCA in 722 days, debbing makes sense and is what we’ve had to deal with. he calls it like he sees it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I’ll be so happy with 2” Anything more is a bonus 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Prob more important than the snow map - stronger vort pass at 12z. Most minor shift ever south 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I could see this maxing out at a 6" - 9" event. I ask because I remember @brooklynwx99 and I think @CAPE noting hiw this period (at least 7 days ago) had all the keys pieces for a KU except the STJ wave. I see there are hints now that the TPV wants to try and phase it. My inner weenie was wondering if some sort of upside surprise is completely off the table? I would assume guidance would have thrown us a bone already given this is under 66hrs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Little bit of 850-700mb frontogenesis showing up on the EC (matches some of the high-res runs) between 00-09z Fri. Might be a sneaky narrow band that sets up ahead of the main event if it can top-down saturate enough. Get me just north of a nice east-west oriented 850-700 fronto band for a few hours. Oh yea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 confluence is weaker on the EPS... that's the big thing here 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12z GEM would bring accumulating snow to the entire state of Maryland. Amazing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primetime Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is that Paul Bearer before he was Paul Bearer? Lol No. That's definitely Attitude Era, you can see the signs. So that was probably when he was with Kane. Around 1998. Before he was Paul Bearer, he was Percy Pringle in various promotions in the southeast. Interestingly enough, the real life Paul Bearer is William Moody and he was in fact, a mortician. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: confluence is weaker on the EPS... that's the big thing here Is that a good or bad thing in this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: confluence is weaker on the EPS... that's the big thing here Looks like it's slightly weaker confluence and a slightly stronger, more compact vort dropping into Minnesota? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 can someone post GEM clown maps? 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z GEM would bring accumulating snow to the entire state of Maryland. Amazing. maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 18z NAM running. Should be at 60 hr+ at around 7:45pm 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Is that a good or bad thing in this setup? Good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, primetime said: No. That's definitely Attitude Era, you can see the signs. So that was probably when he was with Kane. Around 1998. Before he was Paul Bearer, he was Percy Pringle in various promotions in the southeast. Interestingly enough, the real life Paul Bearer is William Moody and he was in fact, a mortician. Yeah I put I'm the Banter thread that I saw that he was Paul Bearer, the Kringle, the Paul Bearer again, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Get me just north of a nice east-west oriented 850-700 fronto band for a few hours. Oh yea. Absolutely. I've had a lot of overperformers pull this little trick and end up extending the duration of snowfall via earlier start times, especially when the lift is near/in the DGZ. Sharper trough would help that along. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Good Because that would allow the southern piece to amplify a bit more? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, yoda said: For Randy - because I remember him posting this gif before a long time ago Damn that brings back memories. lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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