stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm in Baltimore On purpose? 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 He has gotten so conservative in old age 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: On purpose? I knew I should have turned left at Albuquerque 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 This event kills me because i truly think we were so close to a MECS. Look at the pac piece that migrates towards the coast around 60 hours on the models, had that not existed and the ridge was able to expand or hold firm during the event I really believe something like one of those older GFS runs could have happened. We’ll have more chances in Feb. gonna try to recharge my energy over the next 2 weeks. I got sick prior to Tuesday event and I’m still not great so haven’t been able to enjoy them as much as I normally would. . 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm in Baltimore Haha Shoulda added "when you get home" P.S. We now work like four blocks from each other (recently started playing at a church in the neighborhood) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So...JB did REALLY analog this to PD 1979. But we have to be fair, he said he is NOT calling for 2-3 feet, just 12-18"! We met him at one of our conferences Buff and engaging guy with nice pretty wife but he’s over exuberant . Randolph Leggings -was that Phillie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 All models show between 1-4” of snow for most of us. While what we need to improve differs from last storm, we are in a similar position in that it appears very likely it will snow and that the path to a bit of a boom scenario (3-5 instead of 1-3) isn’t THAT far off. 00z tomorrow will be pretty telling as to whether or not this system will be a bit more juiced than models show currently. Setup doesn’t exactly favor this outcome but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 well I just sat through a Bernie Rayno video out of respect for my old employer and they (AccuWeather) are still running with 3-6" for the area. He's tossing the surface depiction of the GFS/EURO for now - intensifying vort to our south is enough for them to go bold. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Maybe i shouldn't come home tomorrow so you guys can get a bigger snowYou weren’t here last storm? Yeah imma need you to stay put dawg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 well I just sat through a Bernie Rayno video out of respect for my old employer and they (AccuWeather) are still running with 3-6" for the area. He's tossing the surface depiction of the GFS/EURO for now. Interesting. He give a reason? Or is his inner weenie whispering sweet nothings in his ear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Models will moisten up this evening. We got this....I hopeEvening time is the best time to moisten up… so I hear @ravensrule . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, jayyy said: Interesting. He give a reason? Or is his inner weenie whispering sweet nothings in his ear I updated the post. Basically just that he expects an area of enhanced snowfall with good ratios not too far to the north side of the intensifying vort passing through. Doesn't think it's translating to the surface yet, rolling with 500mb over surface, etc etc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18Z HRRR is better. Surface low in SW VA at 06Z instead of central WV. Snow through NOVA and DC at that time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: On purpose? Ummmmm….. have you looked out your window and seen where you live?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Evening time is the best time to moisten up… so I hear @ravensrule . Absolutely, it leads to more beautiful white stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I updated the post. Basically just that he expects an area of enhanced snowfall with good ratios not too far to the north side of the intensifying vort passing through. Doesn't think it's translating to the surface yet, rolling with 500mb over surface, etc etcScott alluded to that earlier as well. Certainly not impossible that the storm ends up being a bit more dynamic as the vort passes. If models are dry by even 0.2 qpf, that’s the difference between 1-3 and 3-5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, GATECH said: Can we start a new thread to turn this around....we are going the wrong way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Ummmmm….. have you looked out your window and seen where you live?. You mean in one of the best and affluent neighborhoods in the city? I have, once or twice. Calm down, it was a joke. I like Baltimore 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 ok, 18z NAM time...we're gonna do it. Unless we don't. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 HRRR is better. At least it gives us snow. Unlike 12Z. But it is still dry as a popcorn fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z HRRR is better. Surface low in SW VA at 06Z instead of central WV. Snow through NOVA and DC at that time. Still really need that vort pass 50 miles further south, one way or the other. More confluence, more dig, whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: HRRR is better. At least it gives us snow. Unlike 12Z. But it is still dry as a popcorn fart. Not that dry to the north of us. Just too far north. Not good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: HRRR is better. At least it gives us snow. Unlike 12Z. But it is still dry as a popcorn fart. You must not decorate your popcorn like I do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: HRRR is better. At least it gives us snow. Unlike 12Z. But it is still dry as a popcorn fart. Those were the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 HRRR is a failure mode. The delayed coastal development allows the inland low/surface reflection to strengthen more like a classic clipper. The best snow would be 50-150 miles left of the low track with the rest of the subforum confined to getting light f-gen and WAA driven precip on the front flank of the system, followed quickly by a dry slot aloft. If you want decent snow outside the northern part of the subforum (PA, NJ, far N MD, etc), you really don't want that inland low to develop like that. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Wasn't HRRR in Quebec with the last storm until 6 hours into the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 so far, just noticing some minor flatter flow out front, slightly better ridging tho. Nothing remarkable as of yet...still not in our time range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Wasn't HRRR in Quebec with the last storm until 6 hours into the event? Maybe? I know the HRRR had us getting almost nothing last storm. I really didn't pay much more attention than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So...JB did REALLY analog this to PD 1979. But we have to be fair, he said he is NOT calling for 2-3 feet, just 12-18"! 12-18??? Hes fuckin goofy!! I want what hes drinking!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: 12-18??? Hes fuckin goofy!! I want what hes drinking!!! 120min IPA with a shot of whiskey....that will make you see 1979 again too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now