jayyy Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 well I just sat through a Bernie Rayno video out of respect for my old employer and they (AccuWeather) are still running with 3-6" for the area. He's tossing the surface depiction of the GFS/EURO for now. Interesting. He give a reason? Or is his inner weenie whispering sweet nothings in his ear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Models will moisten up this evening. We got this....I hopeEvening time is the best time to moisten up… so I hear @ravensrule . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Just now, jayyy said: Interesting. He give a reason? Or is his inner weenie whispering sweet nothings in his ear I updated the post. Basically just that he expects an area of enhanced snowfall with good ratios not too far to the north side of the intensifying vort passing through. Doesn't think it's translating to the surface yet, rolling with 500mb over surface, etc etc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 18Z HRRR is better. Surface low in SW VA at 06Z instead of central WV. Snow through NOVA and DC at that time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: On purpose? Ummmmm….. have you looked out your window and seen where you live?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Evening time is the best time to moisten up… so I hear @ravensrule . Absolutely, it leads to more beautiful white stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 I updated the post. Basically just that he expects an area of enhanced snowfall with good ratios not too far to the north side of the intensifying vort passing through. Doesn't think it's translating to the surface yet, rolling with 500mb over surface, etc etcScott alluded to that earlier as well. Certainly not impossible that the storm ends up being a bit more dynamic as the vort passes. If models are dry by even 0.2 qpf, that’s the difference between 1-3 and 3-5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 hour ago, GATECH said: Can we start a new thread to turn this around....we are going the wrong way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Ummmmm….. have you looked out your window and seen where you live?. You mean in one of the best and affluent neighborhoods in the city? I have, once or twice. Calm down, it was a joke. I like Baltimore 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 ok, 18z NAM time...we're gonna do it. Unless we don't. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 HRRR is better. At least it gives us snow. Unlike 12Z. But it is still dry as a popcorn fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z HRRR is better. Surface low in SW VA at 06Z instead of central WV. Snow through NOVA and DC at that time. Still really need that vort pass 50 miles further south, one way or the other. More confluence, more dig, whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: HRRR is better. At least it gives us snow. Unlike 12Z. But it is still dry as a popcorn fart. Not that dry to the north of us. Just too far north. Not good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: HRRR is better. At least it gives us snow. Unlike 12Z. But it is still dry as a popcorn fart. You must not decorate your popcorn like I do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: HRRR is better. At least it gives us snow. Unlike 12Z. But it is still dry as a popcorn fart. Those were the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 HRRR is a failure mode. The delayed coastal development allows the inland low/surface reflection to strengthen more like a classic clipper. The best snow would be 50-150 miles left of the low track with the rest of the subforum confined to getting light f-gen and WAA driven precip on the front flank of the system, followed quickly by a dry slot aloft. If you want decent snow outside the northern part of the subforum (PA, NJ, far N MD, etc), you really don't want that inland low to develop like that. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Wasn't HRRR in Quebec with the last storm until 6 hours into the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 so far, just noticing some minor flatter flow out front, slightly better ridging tho. Nothing remarkable as of yet...still not in our time range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Wasn't HRRR in Quebec with the last storm until 6 hours into the event? Maybe? I know the HRRR had us getting almost nothing last storm. I really didn't pay much more attention than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So...JB did REALLY analog this to PD 1979. But we have to be fair, he said he is NOT calling for 2-3 feet, just 12-18"! 12-18??? Hes fuckin goofy!! I want what hes drinking!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: 12-18??? Hes fuckin goofy!! I want what hes drinking!!! 120min IPA with a shot of whiskey....that will make you see 1979 again too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 12 minutes ago, Negnao said: Not that dry to the north of us. Just too far north. Not good for us. Considering it's the HRRR at this range I wouldn't be too concerned with what it shows. Especially how it just performed a couple days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: so far, just noticing some minor flatter flow out front, slightly better ridging tho. Nothing remarkable as of yet...still not in our time range just dont say its digging when its not....4 people have done that in the past 24 hours lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 just dont say its digging when its not....4 people have done that in the past 24 hours lolSo do the pbp yourself.. ya weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 12 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Wasn't HRRR in Quebec with the last storm until 6 hours into the event? It had the heaviest precip field WAY off leading up to the event and even during. It failed bad. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, Ji said: just dont say its digging when its not....4 people have done that in the past 24 hours lol I know better. Relax. Im always conservative now so people don't get false hope where there is none. I see shit now, but not going to say anything because I don't know how it will go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Just now, jayyy said: So do the pbp yourself.. ya weenie i actually like reading the thread first......its like watching a movie with so much drama. But there is also is alot of fiction. Then i do a deeper dive afterwards 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 Goddamn this model is slow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 It had the heaviest precip field WAY off leading up to the event and even during. It failed bad.HRRR was awful with the last storm, even in the immediate term. It was already snowing outside and it had the storm essentially missing us to the North with 4-6+ amounts in SW PA. Using the HRRR 24+ hours out is a fools errand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I know better. Relax. Im always conservative now so people don't get false hope where there is none. I see shit now, but not going to say anything because I don't know how it will go. i think the 18z nam is actually digging a bit more....famous last words 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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