Ji Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Just now, Solution Man said: When was this written ? 2 nights ago lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: When was this written ? 10:12 am is the timestamp on the discussion, but maybe that part is from last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ji said: i would do it at 00z as 18z will probably be a disaster He’s right, we need new data to go with the new thread. 18z usually doesn’t turn us around if 12z sucked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 Yeah, I'd say 0z tonight will probably set the mark since the event begins like 24 hours after that. I get the concern, but nobody should be bailing yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: He’s right, we need new data to go with the new thread. 18z usually doesn’t turn us around if 12z sucked Think this is a myth but I choose not to believe that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 9 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This "event" happens mostly during the day, too, so rates are going to be important or it's just gonna be wasted qpf anyway. The good news is the ground is frozen. Something were not used to in these parts lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Just now, Chris78 said: The good news is the ground is frozen. Something were not used to in these parts lol. Also sun angle doesn't really kick in until about 10 or 11 am, if we get a few hours of snow before that it'll look and feel wintry again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Models will moisten up this evening. We got this....I hope 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Just now, Solution Man said: Models will moisten up this evening. We got this....I hope something has to NAM us right? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Just now, Ji said: something has to NAM us right? That's the spirit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Maybe 0z sets the table but meal arrives 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: Vort pass looks good where it is. It looks dry maybe because the model has a dry feed from the south. If that moisture feed turns out to be wetter, watch the snow amounts jump up quickly on that same vort pass. Not having more STJ involvement and the lead wave running off are really killing us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Just now, psuhoffman said: Not having more STJ involvement and the lead wave running off are really killing us here. True. Best case scenario here is something similar to what happened with the last system where it beefed up moisture. I think this will be to a much lesser extent here. 1-2" with an upside of 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not having more STJ involvement and the lead wave running off are really killing us here. Can you slow it down just a wee bit for us so they can interact a bit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 17 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Can you slow it down just a wee bit for us so they can interact a bit? You do it, don't be lazy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 18 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Can you slow it down just a wee bit for us so they can interact a bit? That's like trying to get 1 million butterflies to fart in one direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You do it, don't be lazy. Yeah but you're higher up in the atmosphere, so you'd have more leverage...so get up on that mountain, and PUSH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah but you're higher up in the atmosphere, so you'd have more leverage...so get up on that mountain, and PUSH! Mount PSU is pretty high up, I’m only at about 900’ myself. But 10 mins away I can be at 1500 ft near Fort Ritchie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah but you're higher up in the atmosphere, so you'd have more leverage...so get up on that mountain, and PUSH! I'm in Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 So...JB did REALLY analog this to PD 1979. But we have to be fair, he said he is NOT calling for 2-3 feet, just 12-18"! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm in Baltimore On purpose? 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 He has gotten so conservative in old age 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: On purpose? I knew I should have turned left at Albuquerque 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 This event kills me because i truly think we were so close to a MECS. Look at the pac piece that migrates towards the coast around 60 hours on the models, had that not existed and the ridge was able to expand or hold firm during the event I really believe something like one of those older GFS runs could have happened. We’ll have more chances in Feb. gonna try to recharge my energy over the next 2 weeks. I got sick prior to Tuesday event and I’m still not great so haven’t been able to enjoy them as much as I normally would. . 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm in Baltimore Haha Shoulda added "when you get home" P.S. We now work like four blocks from each other (recently started playing at a church in the neighborhood) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So...JB did REALLY analog this to PD 1979. But we have to be fair, he said he is NOT calling for 2-3 feet, just 12-18"! We met him at one of our conferences Buff and engaging guy with nice pretty wife but he’s over exuberant . Randolph Leggings -was that Phillie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 All models show between 1-4” of snow for most of us. While what we need to improve differs from last storm, we are in a similar position in that it appears very likely it will snow and that the path to a bit of a boom scenario (3-5 instead of 1-3) isn’t THAT far off. 00z tomorrow will be pretty telling as to whether or not this system will be a bit more juiced than models show currently. Setup doesn’t exactly favor this outcome but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 well I just sat through a Bernie Rayno video out of respect for my old employer and they (AccuWeather) are still running with 3-6" for the area. He's tossing the surface depiction of the GFS/EURO for now - intensifying vort to our south is enough for them to go bold. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Maybe i shouldn't come home tomorrow so you guys can get a bigger snowYou weren’t here last storm? Yeah imma need you to stay put dawg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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