stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Yeah, this isn't the direction we were hoping for. It's a drier run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Now Stormtracker is worried 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, this isn't the direction we were hoping for. It's a drier run Did you kill the original thread and start the new one? This is the range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, H2O said: Now Stormtracker is worried Didn’t h2o start the new thread last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Snow on snow is underrated. Even if it’s just a 1-2” deal, it can still look like a fresh snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Heavier precip over the area at 54-60. Just a weird evolution..vort seems to pass just south of us. I dunno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Didn’t h2o start the new thread last storm? I did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, H2O said: Now Stormtracker is worried Not really. NAM is vacillating with every run. I can't be all that bothered with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Heavier precip over the area at 60. Just a weird evolution..vort seems to pass just south of us. I dunno You mean h54? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Fucking Jersey 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: You mean h54? Yes, corrected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Didn’t h2o start the new thread last storm? I started the one that Storm killed that brought the storm back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yes, corrected For a run that shitty, results weren’t that much worse. vort pass still is strong and not a bad track. 40-50 miles south is money. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3k looks better and more realistic than the 12k, but stuck at 50 on TT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 It seems so close to something pretty great but I am just not sure it's going to get there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Yeah, 3k seems better. I'm out to 60 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, 3k seems better. I'm out to 60 Agreed. We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 N.A.M. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Surface temperatures are super marginal, so it might have some difficulty sticking on roads once we get past 8am or so. That said, the road surfaces should be plenty cold going into the event, so rates might still get the job done. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 looks like a 1-3 jobber 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 One other thing, and perhaps I missed discussion of this: a few CAMs and the GFS show a period of light snow here Thursday evening with the lead wave. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 WB 12Z 3K NAM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Vort pass looks good where it is. It looks dry maybe because the model has a dry feed from the south. If that moisture feed turns out to be wetter, watch the snow amounts jump up quickly on that same vort pass. 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Shift north is in progress across guidance. Hard to deny. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I did Kill this thread. Start over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: looks like a 1-3 jobber Most of the precip is the NS trailer and upper level driven. And it's light event so whether we get 1-3 (likely) or 3-6 (max boom imho) will depend on how juicy the northern stream is. We'll, assuming it doesn't skip north but I doubt that happens lol. Models don't generally don't dial in with qpf until its already forming to our west. Today's runs are boring and the most probable outcome. But things could easily juice back up at short leads. I won't write off a boom until 0z tomorrow runs 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Vort pass looks good where it is. It looks dry maybe because the model has a dry feed from the south. If that moisture feed turns out to be wetter, watch the snow amounts jump up quickly on that same vort pass. Look too for the jet to align and give us the good rates/ascent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 For a run that shitty, results weren’t that much worse. vort pass still is strong and not a bad track. 40-50 miles south is money. Still doable but 9/10 times, we’d rather need a north nudge than the opposite. Perhaps this time since it’s already quite cold all the way to the gulf coast, models are underestimating how far south this SW tracks / digs, but idk. I’m just an amateur weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Shift north is in progress across guidance. Hard to deny. . ICON is actually south so far this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Shift north is in progress across guidance. Hard to deny. . You’re right. It’s over. Move on 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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