DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 6z runs put about 3” across mby. Okay, I’ll take it. Pattern is gonna start turning back to our favor by EOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 18 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It does, depending on rates and temperature. But it's much, much more forgiving than late February and March. If it snows decently and it's in the 20's, it will stick without a problem. Yeah, combo of rates and temp and flake type as well. 3/9/99 was an entirely daytime event and accumulated 8 inches in DC proper b/c it was ripping fatties all day long. 3/5/15 to a lesser extent as well. But tiny flakes with light rates will even have issues in midday in January. At least this week the snowcover and cold should help going in. How this potentially juices up to be something beyond a light event I'll defer to the smart kids here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 20 minutes ago, Ji said: please dont show that map anymore unless there is blue over us 9z Closer. In the blue here. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Sref mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Woke up and see 1 page added to the thread and thought it was storm cancel. Everyone’s so chill about snow after getting 4-5” yesterday. Same reaction- thought me must be hosed. Then, on reflection, realized if it was bad there would definitely be pages and pages complaining about it… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 I mean look. The focus right now has been a bit further north push. I think we still get in on 1-2 maybe even 1-3 to freshen up things. And there’s still change to change this bad boy. I’ll be around after the GFS. I’ll be attending a meeting that 100% could have been an email from 10-11:30. I literally put it in an email and it covers every single thing this “meeting” is supposed to be about. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I mean look. The focus right now has been a bit further north push. I think we still get in on 1-2 maybe even 1-3 to freshen up things. And there’s still change to change this bad boy. I’ll be around after the GFS. I’ll be attending a meeting that 100% could have been an email from 10-11:30. I literally put it in an email and it covers every single thing this “meeting” is supposed to be about. rookie move to schedule calls/meeting during 12z model runs....do better 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 https://x.com/accurayno/status/1747595162337890778?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktgSure why not 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 https://x.com/accurayno/status/1747595162337890778?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktgSure why not How is jbs Kennedy inaugural day blizzard analog going 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 11 minutes ago, Ji said: rookie move to schedule calls/meeting during 12z model runs....do better You think I was the one who called the meeting. Surely you jest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: https://x.com/accurayno/status/1747595162337890778?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg Sure why not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 44 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Yeah, combo of rates and temp and flake type as well. 3/9/99 was an entirely daytime event and accumulated 8 inches in DC proper b/c it was ripping fatties all day long. 3/5/15 to a lesser extent as well. But tiny flakes with light rates will even have issues in midday in January. At least this week the snowcover and cold should help going in. How this potentially juices up to be something beyond a light event I'll defer to the smart kids here. I don't think I've ever seen a darker sky in winter than during that March 1999 event. One of the coolest mid-tier storms ever. It just ripped like hell for several hours. I don't remember it being that well forecast, but I'm not sure on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 Remember yall when analyzing the NAM, we are looking at the second piece of energy around 57-84 hours 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 Not gonna try to predict the model yet, just give some real time updates. So far, placement of the relevant vort(s) seems just a hair souther, nothing that remarkably different otherwise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 A bit drier to our SW where our precip is coming from so far...but still more panels to come with our relevant precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 hour ago, Ji said: please dont show that map anymore unless there is blue over us 2 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 coastal a bit stronger off NC at 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 So far a good bit drier than 6z so far altho the vort pass appears to be going south or over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I’d take that all day. 2-4 for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 this run is not going to please many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 For now, we just hope it’s the nam. If other 12z runs look like it, this thread is done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 Yeah, this isn't the direction we were hoping for. It's a drier run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Now Stormtracker is worried 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, this isn't the direction we were hoping for. It's a drier run Did you kill the original thread and start the new one? This is the range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, H2O said: Now Stormtracker is worried Didn’t h2o start the new thread last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Snow on snow is underrated. Even if it’s just a 1-2” deal, it can still look like a fresh snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 Heavier precip over the area at 54-60. Just a weird evolution..vort seems to pass just south of us. I dunno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Didn’t h2o start the new thread last storm? I did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 5 minutes ago, H2O said: Now Stormtracker is worried Not really. NAM is vacillating with every run. I can't be all that bothered with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Heavier precip over the area at 60. Just a weird evolution..vort seems to pass just south of us. I dunno You mean h54? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now