wxdude64 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now to be fair...they didn't do as well with what we got yesterday...so maybe it's their turn, lol But snow is a IMBY thing, and I CAN be greedy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 If the 0z turns to crap, pull the same stunt. Unpin this one. Start a new one. Worked great last time. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: But snow is a IMBY thing, and I CAN be greedy.... By all means...we're all snow greedy deep down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3k had the SW a little southeast at 60. Would have been better. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 3k had the SW a little southeast at 60. Would have been better. Big difference on the same model 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Terpeast said: Big difference on the same model Both are unreliable and go off on tangents. But since we’re going to analyze the 12k I figure I’d point out the 3k was going to be good imo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 @Terpeast 3k looks very similar to the 12k at 60 but it was going to be a little south which makes a huge difference for us. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Big difference on the same model The 12 km parent and 3 km nest have different diffusion, so differences in 500 evolution can and do happen. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Icon digging more than 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Icon digging more than 18z. 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psuhoffman said: Surface responding better. We need more shovels! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Just a little more to the south there please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Icon was close to Folks 10 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 ICON has .3” QPF by 18z on Friday in DC (more to come). More than the NAM had the whole run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Icon was close to Folks I like this storm. Probably have room up until 36-48 hours for a psuedo-major surprise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: ICON has .3” QPF by 18z on Friday in DC (more to come). More than the NAM had the whole run. Has an inch before dawn so the "storm only counts if it has snow on the roads" (sorta me) crowd would probably be satisfied. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 00z RGEM is a loser unless you are on the PA/MD border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 If you had NE MD PUMMELED on your bingo cards, mark that space off for the Icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: ICON has .3” QPF by 18z on Friday in DC (more to come). More than the NAM had the whole run. Not bad for a model that is generally conservative with qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I like this storm. Probably have room up until 36-48 hours for a psuedo-major surprise. I don’t know about major. The prices were there for a big storm but the tpv is elongated over the top. We needed it More centered at 50/50 or split. The wave is pretty modest with almost no stj. So not sure this has the high end it could have. But it wouldn’t take a big adjustment to suddenly see 3-6 maybe even 4-8”. Slightly more amped wave. Sync up the two waves a little better. Possible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 00z RGEM is a loser model. FYP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psuhoffman said: I don’t know about major. The prices were there for a big storm but the tpv is elongated over the top. We needed it More centered at 50/50 or split. The wave is pretty modest with almost no stj. So not sure this has the high end it could have. But it wouldn’t take a big adjustment to suddenly see 3-6 maybe even 4-8”. Slightly more amped wave. Sync up the two waves a little better. Possible. Psuedo did a lot of work in my head that might've not translated. I think a smart bet right now would be 1-2"... but the 4-8" or @Eskimo Joe's 5-9" pronouncement of earlier seems like a feasible shift with 3 days left still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z RGEM is a loser unless you are on the PA/MD border. Ugh. That’s not good for anyone. Even up here I never want to be on the southern edge of a northern stream wave 72 hours out. That is bad bad news. Hopefully gfs uk and euro don’t head that way. Ggem always matches the RGEM so don’t expect anything better from that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: If you had NE MD PUMMELED on your bingo cards, mark that space off for the Icon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t know about major. The prices were there for a big storm but the tpv is elongated over the top. We needed it More centered at 50/50 or split. The wave is pretty modest with almost no stj. So not sure this has the high end it could have. But it wouldn’t take a big adjustment to suddenly see 3-6 maybe even 4-8”. Slightly more amped wave. Sync up the two waves a little better. Possible. i wouldn't even be worried if trough consolidation is the issue right now. seeing the weaker confluence from the NAM, ICON, and RGEM is a big deal and is something that can't really be fixed that easily if it's crappy. however, look at today's system at the same lead time: 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Soooo.. The good news is that Thurs, going into Friday at 2-3am, I have to start driving to Florida to catch a boat for vacation... Using standard Murphy compliance, my needing to drive on 95 means that this snow will definitely happen. I'll probably be ok though, right? I mean, I am not too worried about plowing through a few inches of snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Turn those frowns upside down! Here comes the GFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Passing out drunk outside during a snowstorm and waking up covered in 4” of snow is legendary. But yeah, you’re never gonna live last night down Snow cover and passed out drunk is no way to go thru life son. or is it????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Psuedo did a lot of work in my head that might've not translated. I think a smart bet right now would be 1-2"... but the 4-8" or @Eskimo Joe's 5-9" pronouncement of earlier seems like a feasible shift with 3 days left still. There's almost zero chance we get 5-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: There's almost zero chance we get 5-9 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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