WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: This one might be unsalvageable Randy gave you the go ahead. Fire it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Gfs looks basically the same. Light Snow from 7am to 1 or so. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: Gfs looks basically the same. Light Snow from 7am to 1 or so. . 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1-2 inchesIll take it and that has been my expectation. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: Ill take it and that has been my expectation. . Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, paulythegun said: South trend is starting! 0z will be rocking 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 QPF is pretty light on the GFS, 1-3" across the area. However, and I would say this is mildly important...the S/W at h5 passed slightly south-er of the 12z run. And I'm 100% sure of that lol, no takebacks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: South trend is starting! 0z will be rocking We abscond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We had good trends but we peaked too soon yesterday. however, my 0% scientific opinion says at 0z we actually see this come back our way a bit. I said that last week and that was the start of our comeback. Trying to replicate all the variables. Now all we need is the 2nd thread after the cancel and a 3rd to bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I haven't tried one of these in a while. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 No matter what happens Friday. This winter is heading into February with D- grade 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Ji said: No matter what happens Friday. This winter is heading into February with D- grade I put something out there a while ago and no one answered.... let's say we do finish this winter below avg snowfall... gun to your heads how many years would you predict go by before a season where IAD, BWI, and DCA all record 20" of snow in a season? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Ji said: No matter what happens Friday. This winter is heading into February with D- grade If the 3 airports all get ~1.5-2" on Friday, they'll be above normal snowfall to-date for the winter. Now I agree that we've missed on a few chances and/or missed on things going better than they did. And we probably won't add any snow after Friday until February, so then we'll be back below normal. So if the next 10-12 days go as we think they do, my December-January winter grade would be a C. But to get the super AN snow winter like @psuhoffman's prediction, we're gonna need a pretty historic run for February and March. Like 1 HECS and 1-2 MECS/SECS events. My call of slightly AN snow is still very much attainable I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I put something out there a while ago and no one answered.... let's say we do finish this winter below avg snowfall... gun to your heads how many years would you predict go by before a season where IAD, BWI, and DCA all record 20" of snow in a season? LOL If we go back 50 years, I believe the longest gap is from 1987-88 to 1994-95. So we'd have to fall short this winter and next winter to break the 50 year record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If the 3 airports all get ~1.5-2" on Friday, they'll be above normal snowfall to-date for the winter. Now I agree that we've missed on a few chances and/or missed on things going better than they did. And we probably won't add any snow after Friday until February, so then we'll be back below normal. So if the next 10-12 days go as we think they do, my December-January winter grade would be a C. But to get the super AN snow winter like @psuhoffman's prediction, we're gonna need a pretty historic run for February and March. Like 1 HECS and 1-2 MECS/SECS events. My call of slightly AN snow is still very much attainable I think. I really do think we get another 20-30 day period that is favorable for snow. And Feb into March isnt too late to pull a save. But I am more discouraged than hopeful right now because of this... We already somewhat wasted this The problem hasn't been that the pattern never got to where I expected this winter. That actually wouldn't bother me as much. But the problem has been it did and it just didn't do us nearly as much good wrt snowfall as I thought it would so far. By the time the pattern above breaks down we would have had a solid 4 weeks of a very favorable longwave pattern. Now some will start to couch it with...yea but the first 15 days don't count because we had a torch before it. Well isn't that part of the problem I've been screaming about. If every bad pattern torches us so bad we need weeks to recover...aren't we kinda screwed in the bigger picture? The more hopeful take would be the next cycle of this pattern, and I do think we get another bite of that apple this winter...maybe it goes better because we are less likely for all of N AMerica to be completely torched because it will be later in the season. So maybe we don't waste weeks and a couple perfect track waves just waiting to get colder. But man we only get so many periods like this in a decade, not a winter but a decade. We wasted a similarly great pattern in 2021 imo. When we start wasting them with very little to show wrt snowfall...well that is more depressing to me than when we simply get a crap pattern all winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 37 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Definitely a bit better for most everyone unless you're in Hagerstown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 29 minutes ago, Ji said: No matter what happens Friday. This winter is heading into February with D- grade Yeah, I might even go F given expectations. To date, we have had basically three snow events. We had the anafront deal that gave me a light dusting, the snow squall which gave me a light dusting and was probably more fun than the anafront event, and then the snow this week, which was solid but honestly disappointed me a little because it basically shut off at midnight and it also never snowed hard at any point. Friday looks like a dusting to a couple of inches at best. In a Nina, that’s a B through January. In a Nino over the past seven years, it’s basically a complete fail. The good news is that, even when we flip the calendar to February, we are still only halfway through winter, if that. But sun angle season isn’t far away, either, and snow that falls later in that period won’t be around long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 23 minutes ago, Ji said: No matter what happens Friday. This winter is heading into February with D- grade Since 2009, I've received a TOTAL of 7.5" in 10 accumulating snow events over the last 14 Decembers (incl this winter) In the same period I've received a total of 32" in 13 accumulating snow events over the last 13 March's December isn't a winter month. March is. We're only 2 weeks into winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Yeah, I might even go F given expectations. To date, we have had basically three snow events. We had the anafront deal that gave me a light dusting, the snow squall which gave me a light dusting and was probably more fun than the anafront event, and then the snow this week, which was solid but honestly disappointed me a little because it basically shut off at midnight and it also never snowed hard at any point. Friday looks like a dusting to a couple of inches at best. In a Nina, that’s a B through January. In a Nino over the past seven years, it’s basically a complete fail. The good news is that, even when we flip the calendar to February, we are still only halfway through winter, if that. But sun angle season isn’t far away, either, and snow that falls later in that period won’t be around long.Panic. Room. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 16 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Since 2009, I've received a TOTAL of 7.5" in 10 accumulating snow events over the last 14 Decembers (incl this winter) In the same period I've received a total of 32" in 13 accumulating snow events over the last 13 March's December isn't a winter month. March is. We're only 2 weeks into winter. Right, but basically a month into it since Friday is nothing and then we have a week or so of nothing heading into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Half the people say we are trending north Half south https://x.com/gooroowinter/status/1747744871006257419?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 43 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: Definitely a bit better for most everyone unless you're in Hagerstown 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Half the people say we are trending north Half southhttps://x.com/gooroowinter/status/1747744871006257419?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA Some dude on twitter = half the people 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 hours ago, BristowWx said: 120min IPA with a shot of whiskey....that will make you see 1979 again too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 We have different threads for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Euro wet af Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Panic. Room. . Not really sure why that post is panic room material. Never said winter was over, or that I was taking permanent ink or a sharpie and putting down the grade as an F. Mentioned we still have at least half of winter, if not more, to go. Get a HECS and a SECS from mid February to mid March and it goes from F to A. It’s not impossible. I am not expecting February 2010, but it’s not impossible. But I think looking realistically at things is fair. Unless we get a surprise Friday, we will head into February with below average snow and in a Nino to boot. Those are the facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, jayyy said: We have different threads for a reason. This is a dead thread. There is a new storm thread. We’re just Fing around in here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro wet af Wow a whole .2 QPF. How the bar has fallen lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now