stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: This one might be unsalvageable Go ahead. And do pbp for the GFS...gym day. 0z really will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The only times a NS wave has trended south it's been because it was suppressed by confluence becoming modeled too weak. It happened twice in March 2014. The problem is, and was true in both those cases, that also weakens the wave. One of those March 2014 storms was originally modeled as a 18-24" storm for PA. In the end it was a 4-8" storm in VA. This wave is so weak already that the suppression it might take to force it back south...would just mean there was no storm for anyone. Squashing it south of us doesn't really do us much good. I have almost NEVER seen a NS wave trend more "diggy" the last 72 hours which is what we actually need. Man that's depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: Man that's depressing His analogs are accurate too, it just doesn’t happen for us with these types of systems. You have to use your buffer, we probably peaked on this 24 hours early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Go ahead. And do pbp for the GFS...gym day. 0z really will be telling Yesterday I was hopeful this would buck the typical outcome for a NS wave coming in from this trajectory. But I think now it's heading towards what we all knew in the back of our heads was most likely. Hope I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yesterday I was hopeful this would buck the typical outcome for a NS wave coming in from this trajectory. But I think now it's heading towards what we all knew in the back of our heads was most likely. Hope I'm wrong. Let’s just use this storm to pretend we’re angry at PSU, if I recall correctly 1/26/11 was the PSUhoffman storm back in the day? We can make this the f*** PSU storm? Then we can do PSU2 in February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 @StormyClearweather maybe if this storm comes back, @stormtrackerwill consider sharing his snap with you? trying to barter with the snow gods as we speak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18z RGEM is a little dryer (EDIT: it's tough to really tell with this map) but still lots of light snow for dc and points north. Philly jackput with the inverted trough. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Let’s just use this storm to pretend we’re angry at PSU, if I recall correctly 1/26/11 was the PSUhoffman storm back in the day? We can make this the f*** PSU storm? Then we can do PSU2 in February? I stayed away from the thread for almost 3 model cycles and oddly it didn't seem like people were any more happy about their snow prospects going to crap. Is it perhaps that my analysis of our crappy outcomes is not what people are really upset about? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Graf model still on board https://x.com/miketfox5/status/1747719656025075846?s=46 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psuhoffman said: I stayed away from the thread for almost 3 model cycles and oddly it didn't seem like people were any more happy about their snow prospects going to crap. Is it perhaps that my analysis of our crappy outcomes is not what people are really upset about? It’s definitely not that lol. We just have to make up an excuse at this point. Getting a n/s wave to not put the nail in the coffin tonight is miracle work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: 18z RGEM is a little dryer (EDIT: it's tough to really tell with this map) but still lots of light snow for dc and points north. Philly jackput with the inverted trough. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024011718&fh=53&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18Z ICON still decent for DC and north. But it did tick north a little bit. Writing seems to be on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: 18z RGEM is a little dryer but still lots of light snow for dc and points north. Philly jackput with the inverted trough. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I saw it, its bleeding the wrong way also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 15 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: His analogs are accurate too, it just doesn’t happen for us with these types of systems. You have to use your buffer, we probably peaked on this 24 hours early. Definitely can't argue with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Icon isn’t too bad. Prediction is we hit rock bottom with the 18z gfs, but then the trend north stops and 0z moistens a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 There is still a chance we hold onto a minor event here, I am not 100% sold it continues to slide away to NOTHING...but I certainly would be prepared for that result emotionally, even up here, given where we are now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 @Deck Pic, your turn soon. I have faith in you. Bring us home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 There is still a chance we hold onto a minor event here, I am not 100% sold it continues to slide away to NOTHING...but I certainly would be prepared for that result emotionally, even up here, given where we are now. We more often that not go from something to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keviepoo Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Once again... I am willing it to snow... ok... everyone can relax now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 36 hours is a lot of time for sufficient ticks south and wetter. How many ticks we got left? bout 5? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 43 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: This one might be unsalvageable If it shows same tomorrow at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I guess accuweather uses the graf….it updated to 3-6 for Haymarket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 36 hours is a lot of time for sufficient ticks south and wetter. How many ticks we got left? bout 5?South and wetter are things we dont do here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 27 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Graf model still on board https://x.com/miketfox5/status/1747719656025075846?s=46 i think stefi graf is more reliable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: I guess accuweather uses the graf….it updated to 3-6 for Haymarket They have 1-3 for Montclair. I’d sign right now for that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: They have 1-3 for Montclair. I’d sign right now for that lol Yep, no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Yep, no doubt Unless of course things turn around at 0z, then i want more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 40 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Go ahead. And do pbp for the GFS...gym day. 0z really will be telling Starting the PBP, the -72 hr 500mb vorticity on the 18z matches the -66 hr 500mb vorticity on the 12z. We're off to a good start! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 You guys are putting way too much time into a NS dominant system. Do yourself a favor and prepare for nothing and hope for more than that. I don’t waste my time with those evolutions in the Mid Atlantic. We aren’t New England. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1-3 inches on top of what we got already this week is a win in my book. Expectations are always important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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