WVsnowlover Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, Negnao said: Not that dry to the north of us. Just too far north. Not good for us. Considering it's the HRRR at this range I wouldn't be too concerned with what it shows. Especially how it just performed a couple days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: so far, just noticing some minor flatter flow out front, slightly better ridging tho. Nothing remarkable as of yet...still not in our time range just dont say its digging when its not....4 people have done that in the past 24 hours lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 just dont say its digging when its not....4 people have done that in the past 24 hours lolSo do the pbp yourself.. ya weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Wasn't HRRR in Quebec with the last storm until 6 hours into the event? It had the heaviest precip field WAY off leading up to the event and even during. It failed bad. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Ji said: just dont say its digging when its not....4 people have done that in the past 24 hours lol I know better. Relax. Im always conservative now so people don't get false hope where there is none. I see shit now, but not going to say anything because I don't know how it will go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, jayyy said: So do the pbp yourself.. ya weenie i actually like reading the thread first......its like watching a movie with so much drama. But there is also is alot of fiction. Then i do a deeper dive afterwards 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Goddamn this model is slow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 It had the heaviest precip field WAY off leading up to the event and even during. It failed bad.HRRR was awful with the last storm, even in the immediate term. It was already snowing outside and it had the storm essentially missing us to the North with 4-6+ amounts in SW PA. Using the HRRR 24+ hours out is a fools errand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I know better. Relax. Im always conservative now so people don't get false hope where there is none. I see shit now, but not going to say anything because I don't know how it will go. i think the 18z nam is actually digging a bit more....famous last words 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Goddamn this model is slowit’s loading up the NAMing code as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, Ji said: just dont say its digging when its not....4 people have done that in the past 24 hours lol The confusion has been regarding the two waves. In some cases the lead wave, which is not the main one, was digging more, but it was offset by the main wave NOT and eventually when they phased together it pulled it all north some...but the real issue is its just not coming together. What little STJ there is gets pulled off by that weak POS lead wave and then the stronger SW comes in behind it with nothing to work with at the surface. It eventually gets going as best it can given the wrecked environment but the extra 6 hours it takes to get going might kill us since its moving past us as its doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Anxiously awaiting the next panel and the low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Ji said: i think the 18z nam is actually digging a bit more....famous last words Kinda diggity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i actually like reading the thread first......its like watching a movie with so much drama. But there is also is alot of fiction. Then i do a deeper dive afterwards I have to admit I do this too sometimes for fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Throw it out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7am looks better than it did at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Interstate said: Throw it out ???????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I have to admit I do this too sometimes for fun randy does a good job with the drama stuff. Others come in and add fiction......and its like a trainwreck that you cant stop watching. But when its a good hit...its super fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Ever so slightly wetter across the northern neck and southern MD area...about the same north of there so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: Ever so slightly wetter across the northern neck and southern MD area...about the same north of there so far i fear we might be about to get split? but at least that gives the southern band a chance to trend north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 15z SREF Plumes ticked up a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: ???????????? To me... the H5 is not as good as the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Definitely NOT diggier as 12z. S/w still should pass just under or nearly over us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Sorry everybody, this is going to be a drier run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: Definitely NOT diggier as 12z. S/w still should pass just under or nearly over us get lower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Wetter than 12z, I guess that’s a trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: Sorry everybody, this is going to be a drier run Just now, Solution Man said: Wetter than 12z, I guess that’s a trend HA HA HA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, stormtracker said: Sorry everybody, this is going to be a drier run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Wait. What? One person says wetter, another drier. So, the same? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 when the 12k nam fails....immediately switch to the 3K nam because its a better model...unless than 12k shows more snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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