baltosquid Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Paleocene said: At this stage, can we pull out weenie handbook rule #725 and say "at this stage it's appropriate to rely on mesos rather than globals" and ignore global runs that don't paint the DC metro area blue? I already have of course. But it DID work last time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Interesting that the GFS is so insistent for a pocket of light snow to form over central Virginia at 0z Friday for several runs. No other model has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Canadian is similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I see blue over my house. I went outside, looked up, and checked. I'm good. No worries here! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I seriously don't get the negativity in here this morning. It's wild. For those of you who want to bellyache, how about heading over the panic room and staying there? People saw that JB is comparing this potential to the PD Blizzard so naturally folks are disappointed now because they remember he was actually correct with one storm in Feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said: I see blue over my house. I went outside, looked up, and checked. I'm good. No worries here! Current skies match digital blue 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: It’s almost Next worthy with these north trends. I’m buying the Icon though "Guys", "folks", or "next'? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: "Guys", "folks", or "next'? What does fellas equate to? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: I see blue over my house. I went outside, looked up, and checked. I'm good. No worries here! Unfortunately i only see blue when i look down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Unfortunately i only see blue when i look down. Ahh Jesus, here we go again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Slight north shift on some guidance, which isn’t overly shocking with a northern stream dominated system. Hopefully it’s about done… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 There seems to have been more room for coastal development with the last system. This time, the flow up top seems more progressive with the cold front basically plowing thru before next week’s moderating trend. I think the way to win is to be able to get the low to redevelop quicker and closer to the coast before it exits the stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The only thing that matters right now is how much rain does the GFS show for Georgetown?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Which model did a better job with total precipitation last storm? Gfs or euro?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: Which model did a better job with total precipitation last storm? Gfs or euro? . The reliable ones all did well. Mesos did well too. Imo- euro was the most consistent inside of 72 hours and verified well. Others were more jumpy. Right now we're haggling over a tenth of an inch of qpf so subtle changes feel bigger than they really are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I have nothing to add right now that hasn’t already been said. I hate NS dominated systems, but this one has more potential than our usual nothing-burgers. General 1-3” with up to 4” in the hills and areas along and west of US15. ECMWF has been fairly firm on its depiction last succession of runs. QPF between 0.15-0.35 will be common with better lift through the aid of a strong mid-upper speed max cutting underneath. Should be in the left exit region of the jet for a period of time on Friday to generate good lift and nice dendrites before everything pushes out. Those looking for a bigger hit (6+”) should probably look elsewhere. This is missing some components for a bigger storm. The main component decided to rush out ahead of the primary vort which will negate full phasing or even more substantial interactions. Unless that slows down and the NS can catch it with short term trends, bar should be 5” or less everywhere. 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I have nothing to add right now that hasn’t already been said. I hate NS dominated systems, but this one has more potential than our usual nothing-burgers. General 1-3” with up to 4” in the hills and areas along and west of US15. ECMWF has been fairly firm on its depiction last succession of runs. QPF between 0.15-0.35 will be common with better lift through the aid of a strong mid-upper speed max cutting underneath. Should be in the left exit region of the jet for a period of time on Friday to generate good lift and nice dendrites before everything pushes out. Those looking for a bigger hit (6+”) should probably look elsewhere. This is missing some components for a bigger storm. The main component decided to rush out ahead of the primary vort which will negate full phasing or even more substantial interactions. Unless that slows down and the NS can catch it with short term trends, bar should be 5” or less everywhere. 100% agree. My thinking that we could get some top end potential 6"+ from yesterday is gone. But that's not a bad thing. We're looking at another solid advisory level event headed into a weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Model grab bag. JMA total precip (looking very good!) 12z ARPEGE (JUICY!!!) ACCESS-G shows about 0.25 to 0.35 in liquid equivalent, tough to tell with this scale. And of course the UM(mmmmm) model is the driest. does UM have a dry bias? we'll see 557ww model...well...it doesn't have many good parameters other than 700mb RH and that looks north throughout the event, including at 00z on saturday. Though this is the 00z run of 557ww. so take it with a grain of salt until the 557ww computer processes the new 12z data. And last but not least is the RHMC model, which I assume stands for Ronald McDonald House Charities. Looks like widespread.....1 and 2 throughout the forum. 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 38 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: People saw that JB is comparing this potential to the PD Blizzard so naturally folks are disappointed now because they remember he was actually correct with one storm in Feb 2010. I didn't realize that a blizzard is 0.2". I guess this is the new normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 JMA and ICON are our best models right now... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12z UKIE 1-2 for most of the region 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 48 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Ahh Jesus, here we go again. Jesus is not going to help you with me, you better pray harder. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Jesus is not going to help you with me, you better pray harder. Will be kneeling so often that at the end, he'll need a cracker and something to drink. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: I seriously don't get the negativity in here this morning. It's wild. For those of you who want to bellyache, how about heading over the panic room and staying there? This. I scroll on this site as much as I read and enjoy. The fake insta panic about every run, or foggy past memories and nostalgia of snowstorms can be cringe worthy. I asked one of the mets at CWG if the Appalachian mountains were flattened would we get more clippers at this confluence of water body, mountain and lower plain. The answer was yes! So if you want more snow, our duty is clear. Blow those suckers up!! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 34 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Model grab bag. JMA total precip (looking very good!) 12z ARPEGE (JUICY!!!) ACCESS-G shows about 0.25 to 0.35 in liquid equivalent, tough to tell with this scale. And of course the UM(mmmmm) model is the driest. does UM have a dry bias? we'll see 557ww model...well...it doesn't have many good parameters other than 700mb RH and that looks north throughout the event, including at 00z on saturday. Though this is the 00z run of 557ww. so take it with a grain of salt until the 557ww computer processes the new 12z data. And last but not least is the RHMC model, which I assume stands for Ronald McDonald House Charities. Looks like widespread.....1 and 2 throughout the forum. don't forget the Spire 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The only thing that matters right now is how much rain does the GFS show for Georgetown??GFS was close . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Predictions for the euro, a nice swath of 2-4 from N edge of DC (say about Georgetown) to the M/D line. About .2-.25" QPF for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Maybe i shouldn't come home tomorrow so you guys can get a bigger snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: GFS was close . Nws going to issue a cold rain advisory for Georgetown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Predictions for the euro, a nice swath of 2-4 from N edge of DC (say about Georgetown) to the M/D line. About .2-.25" QPF for most. I imagine it holds or shifts the slightest bit north. It’s been consistent recently, which is great for my hood being consistently over 3”. Good dynamics should help with this one so long as the jet doesn’t cross north of us. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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