psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:08 AM, LP08 said: Icon digging more than 18z. Expand 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:10 AM, psuhoffman said: Expand Surface responding better. We need more shovels! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:10 AM, psuhoffman said: Expand Just a little more to the south there please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Icon was close to Folks 10 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 ICON has .3” QPF by 18z on Friday in DC (more to come). More than the NAM had the whole run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:15 AM, psuhoffman said: Icon was close to Folks Expand I like this storm. Probably have room up until 36-48 hours for a psuedo-major surprise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:15 AM, nj2va said: ICON has .3” QPF by 18z on Friday in DC (more to come). More than the NAM had the whole run. Expand Has an inch before dawn so the "storm only counts if it has snow on the roads" (sorta me) crowd would probably be satisfied. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 00z RGEM is a loser unless you are on the PA/MD border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 If you had NE MD PUMMELED on your bingo cards, mark that space off for the Icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:15 AM, nj2va said: ICON has .3” QPF by 18z on Friday in DC (more to come). More than the NAM had the whole run. Expand Not bad for a model that is generally conservative with qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:18 AM, NorthArlington101 said: I like this storm. Probably have room up until 36-48 hours for a psuedo-major surprise. Expand I don’t know about major. The prices were there for a big storm but the tpv is elongated over the top. We needed it More centered at 50/50 or split. The wave is pretty modest with almost no stj. So not sure this has the high end it could have. But it wouldn’t take a big adjustment to suddenly see 3-6 maybe even 4-8”. Slightly more amped wave. Sync up the two waves a little better. Possible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:22 AM, NorthArlington101 said: 00z RGEM is a loser model. Expand FYP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:23 AM, psuhoffman said: I don’t know about major. The prices were there for a big storm but the tpv is elongated over the top. We needed it More centered at 50/50 or split. The wave is pretty modest with almost no stj. So not sure this has the high end it could have. But it wouldn’t take a big adjustment to suddenly see 3-6 maybe even 4-8”. Slightly more amped wave. Sync up the two waves a little better. Possible. Expand Psuedo did a lot of work in my head that might've not translated. I think a smart bet right now would be 1-2"... but the 4-8" or @Eskimo Joe's 5-9" pronouncement of earlier seems like a feasible shift with 3 days left still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:22 AM, NorthArlington101 said: 00z RGEM is a loser unless you are on the PA/MD border. Expand Ugh. That’s not good for anyone. Even up here I never want to be on the southern edge of a northern stream wave 72 hours out. That is bad bad news. Hopefully gfs uk and euro don’t head that way. Ggem always matches the RGEM so don’t expect anything better from that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:23 AM, nj2va said: If you had NE MD PUMMELED on your bingo cards, mark that space off for the Icon. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:23 AM, psuhoffman said: I don’t know about major. The prices were there for a big storm but the tpv is elongated over the top. We needed it More centered at 50/50 or split. The wave is pretty modest with almost no stj. So not sure this has the high end it could have. But it wouldn’t take a big adjustment to suddenly see 3-6 maybe even 4-8”. Slightly more amped wave. Sync up the two waves a little better. Possible. Expand i wouldn't even be worried if trough consolidation is the issue right now. seeing the weaker confluence from the NAM, ICON, and RGEM is a big deal and is something that can't really be fixed that easily if it's crappy. however, look at today's system at the same lead time: 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Soooo.. The good news is that Thurs, going into Friday at 2-3am, I have to start driving to Florida to catch a boat for vacation... Using standard Murphy compliance, my needing to drive on 95 means that this snow will definitely happen. I'll probably be ok though, right? I mean, I am not too worried about plowing through a few inches of snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 Turn those frowns upside down! Here comes the GFS 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 1:33 AM, jayyy said: Passing out drunk outside during a snowstorm and waking up covered in 4” of snow is legendary. But yeah, you’re never gonna live last night down Expand Snow cover and passed out drunk is no way to go thru life son. or is it????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:24 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Psuedo did a lot of work in my head that might've not translated. I think a smart bet right now would be 1-2"... but the 4-8" or @Eskimo Joe's 5-9" pronouncement of earlier seems like a feasible shift with 3 days left still. Expand There's almost zero chance we get 5-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:33 AM, stormtracker said: There's almost zero chance we get 5-9 Expand 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:29 AM, Brianonymous said: Soooo.. The good news is that Thurs, going into Friday at 2-3am, I have to start driving to Florida to catch a boat for vacation... Using standard Murphy compliance, my needing to drive on 95 means that this snow will definitely happen. I'll probably be ok though, right? I mean, I am not too worried about plowing through a few inches of snow. Expand Yeah, seems like you’ll be okay leaving at that hour. Have a great trip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 Well the good news is, even if this one doesn't work out...yesterday did, and it was a uniform win across the board. So at least we would've gotten 1 put of 2 with a reload coming (not giving up on this one yet though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 How about the GRAF - This model stinks! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 No big changes on the GFS thru 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 Not seeing much change, nothing impressive...it's basically the 18z GFS but a tiny bit warmer at the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2024 Author Share Posted January 17, 2024 2-4 dc north from like US 50 north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:51 AM, stormtracker said: 2-4 dc north from like US 50 north Expand 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:53 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Expand Would take, but don’t love being on the southern edge. That’s never where you want to be. Just need the vort to dig a bit. Not asking for much! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2024 Share Posted January 17, 2024 On 1/17/2024 at 3:54 AM, Terpeast said: Would take, but don’t love being on the southern edge. That’s never where you want to be Expand yeah, it took a lot of precip away further south. the 0.2" line used to be down by RIC... they now get maybe 0.05". it's slightly wetter where it hits, but a scary outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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