Silas Lang Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Silas Lang said: My fears look like they are coming to fruition. Ice, ice baby. Oddly enough, the RGEM is actually trending the snow line into the central valley with limited ice the past couple of runs. Curious to see if the 12z holds. I want that solution to be correct! lol RGEM trend 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Warming up fast in Corbin, now 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 We've warmed up really quick in Crossville! Already 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 That temp in crossville does not bode well for anything but rain and frezzing rain. Was hoping that clouds would have come in this morning and keep the temp down but that has not happened. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Man, the HRRR spits out ice storm warning criteria ice here. Exactly what I don't need with temps near 0 returning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Glad to see MRX come to their senses this morning. They were potentially putting a lot of folks into a false sense of everything will be fine, disregarding the trapped cold, enhanced by deep unusual snowpack. I was stunned yesterday at how they were proceeding. Glad to see them right that ship. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 That temp in crossville does not bode well for anything but rain and frezzing rain. Was hoping that clouds would have come in this morning and keep the temp down but that has not happened.Yeah I believe the higher elevation actually works a bit in favor of warmer in this scenario at least initially. Lower points will trap shallow cold easier. Though with snowpack think everyone with it, will likely get the freezing rain in general. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Heavy fzr drizzle here in jackson. Wrecks everywhere in my area! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 My hopes were we in the valley might get a situation where we trap enought cold air in the valley deep enough to give us snow. This has happened before but I think we are going to get to strong WWA up the valley especially with the sun helping out now that we get only frezzing rain. It could be really terrible. 11 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Glad to see MRX come to their senses. They were potentially putting a lot of folks into a false sense of everything will be fine, disregarding the trapped cold, enhanced by deep unusual snowpack. I was stunned yesterday at how they were proceeding. Glad to see them right that ship. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Heavy fzr drizzle here in jackson. Wrecks everywhere in my area! Thanks for the update! Always good to know what is happening on the ground. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 If this happens as a drizzle/ight rain scenario it's the worst way to get freezing rain for travel. If it rains hard it builds up on raised surfaces but the way roads are designed to shed water, the water starts running and it's harder to freeze. But light rain that slowly builds, that's just the worst. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 My hopes were we in the valley might get a situation where we trap enought cold air in the valley deep enough to give us snow. This has happened before but I think we are going to get to strong WWA up the valley especially with the sun helping out now that we get only frezzing rain. It could be really terrible. Definitely still possible, these situations can be surprising like that. I would prefer sleet if can't get snow over freezing rain but I have a feeling it's going to be equally if not more treacherous tomorrow morning as it was end of day Monday and Tuesday morning. A little ice is a big deal in normal circumstances let alone with many roads even in Knoxville sill ice/snow packed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Silas Lang said: My fears look like they are coming to fruition. Ice, ice baby. Oddly enough, the RGEM is actually trending the snow line into the central valley with limited ice the past couple of runs. Curious to see if the 12z holds. I want that solution to be correct! lol Yeah, it many times has the winning hand here but, pretty strong WAA at 850 will probably give it to the Hrrr, or a combination of both Models may be the route it takes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On a good note, it has became mostly cloudy here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Should add I've made it to 25 and overcast conditions are either moving in or developing. Can't tell for sure, but it seems like it developed overhead rather than moved in from the west. Anyone on the plateau have overcast skies or sunshine? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Temps made it to 29° but clouds just rolled in. Definitely has an eery dense fog look 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said: Should add I've made it to 25 and overcast conditions are either moving in or developing. Can't tell for sure, but it seems like it developed overhead rather than moved in from the west. Anyone on the plateau have overcast skies or sunshine? Clouds just rolled in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The WAA is shocking. Started out at 11.8 degrees this morning. Already pushing 40 in just a few hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Temps made it to 29° but clouds just rolled in. Definitely has an eery dense fog lookYeah as I look toward the west toward the plateau it looks dark like a summer thunderstorm approaching almost. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, John1122 said: If this happens as a drizzle/ight rain scenario it's the worst way to get freezing rain for travel. If it rains hard it builds up on raised surfaces but the way roads are designed to shed water, the water starts running and it's harder to freeze. But light rain that slowly builds, that's just the worst. It really is worse for it to be light. When I lived in Asheville, new years eve 2017, it sprinkled for maybe 5 or 10 minutes? But the temps has been cold and it instantly made the roads treacherous. I had to walk home five miles because I almost died driving and just decided to park the truck, wasn't worth it. Numerous wrecks, stalled traffic, terrible all around and all over like .01 inch of freezing rain. Worst part was you couldn't even see any ice. But my truck certainly felt it. Needless to say, one of the few new years I spent alone. lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The WAA is shocking. Started out at 11.8 degrees this morning. Already pushing 40 in just a few hours.Wow that is incredible! Aren't cruising upward like that up this way. Seems to plateaued around 25/26 here since clouds moved in. Snow still isn't melting here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Guys, look on the bright side and this time next week we will be 50 degrees warmer most likely compared to just a few days ago 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KnoxLC Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Should those of us in West Knox/Loudon Co. area be concerned about power outages with the possibility of the freezing rain later? Thankfully, it's something we've mostly avoided this week with the mega-snowfall. But freezing rain on power lines -- are we forecasted to get enough accretion to worry about losing power? Thanks for all of you who share your knowledge on a regular basis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasescott66 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Should those of us in West Knox/Loudon Co. area be concerned about power outages with the possibility of the freezing rain later? Thankfully, it's something we've mostly avoided this week with the mega-snowfall. But freezing rain on power lines -- are we forecasted to get enough accretion to worry about losing power? Thanks for all of you who share your knowledge on a regular basis.I know KUB classifies <.12 inches has impact on trees and power lines. i am guessing it would be the same for lcub.>. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said: Yeah I believe the higher elevation actually works a bit in favor of warmer in this scenario at least initially. Lower points will trap shallow cold easier. Though with snowpack think everyone with it, will likely get the freezing rain in general. I know in 2015 we had a massive ice storm here in Crossville while Knoxville and most places off the Plateau got snow. Just a past example. It was about 1.5 inches of ice here with no power for over a week, while other places got a foot of snow if I remember correctly. It also occurred right after a frigid week of snow and below 0 temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said: Should add I've made it to 25 and overcast conditions are either moving in or developing. Can't tell for sure, but it seems like it developed overhead rather than moved in from the west. Anyone on the plateau have overcast skies or sunshine? It's been very cloudy here ever since I posted the 33 degree temp. This is looking west 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Should those of us in West Knox/Loudon Co. area be concerned about power outages with the possibility of the freezing rain later? Thankfully, it's something we've mostly avoided this week with the mega-snowfall. But freezing rain on power lines -- are we forecasted to get enough accretion to worry about losing power? Thanks for all of you who share your knowledge on a regular basis.A tenth of an inch isn't too terrible, but all it takes is 1 weaker tree, then adding hundreds of pounds of ice to the weight to it to fall and take a line out. So it's definitely possible. A lot of folks don't think about the combined weight a mature tree especially a pine or cedar is holding up with a tenth of an inch of ice on every nook and cranny. It's an astounding amount of weight up to the weight of a small car. For my area trees still have snow on them that is sealed to the tree by freezing rain at the end of the snow Monday. That already has pines and cedars bending under the weight. Add more freezing rain and Friday wind gusts 25-30mph and I think it's a guarantee for at least sporadic outages. I don't think widespread outages but definitely will be some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Isn't reaching the ground yet, but looking west... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I wonder if this is going to come in early. I noticed that returns are already reached the Knoxville area. Don't know when it was expected but looks early. May take a long time to reach the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 I've made it to 27 degrees. I noticed the Crossville airport was at 33 but has fallen to 30. Dewpoints are low, in the 10s, so some wetbulbing will occur. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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