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Cold Shot: Part Duex - January 18-20th Arctic Blast and Freezing Rain/Snow Event


John1122
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1 minute ago, Silas Lang said:

My fears look like they are coming to fruition. Ice, ice baby. 

 

Oddly enough, the RGEM is actually trending the snow line into the central valley with limited ice the past couple of runs. Curious to see if the 12z holds. I want that solution to be correct! lol 

RGEM trend

acc5a7a5-b109-4cd0-baff-c2da8f66b6d3.gif

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Glad to see MRX come to their senses this morning. They were potentially putting a lot of folks into a false sense of everything will be fine, disregarding the trapped cold, enhanced by deep unusual snowpack. I was stunned yesterday at how they were proceeding. Glad to see them right that ship.

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That temp in crossville does not bode well for anything but rain and frezzing rain.  Was hoping that clouds would have come in this morning and keep the temp down but that has not happened.
Yeah I believe the higher elevation actually works a bit in favor of warmer in this scenario at least initially. Lower points will trap shallow cold easier. Though with snowpack think everyone with it, will likely get the freezing rain in general.

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My hopes were we in the valley might get a situation where we trap enought cold air in the valley deep enough to give us snow.  This has happened before but I think we are going to get to strong WWA up the valley especially with the sun helping out now that we get only frezzing rain.  It could be really terrible.

11 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Glad to see MRX come to their senses. They were potentially putting a lot of folks into a false sense of everything will be fine, disregarding the trapped cold, enhanced by deep unusual snowpack. I was stunned yesterday at how they were proceeding. Glad to see them right that ship.

 

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If this happens as a drizzle/ight rain scenario it's the worst way to get freezing rain for travel. If it rains hard it builds up on raised surfaces but the way roads are designed to shed water, the water starts running and it's harder to freeze. But light rain that slowly builds, that's just the worst.

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My hopes were we in the valley might get a situation where we trap enought cold air in the valley deep enough to give us snow.  This has happened before but I think we are going to get to strong WWA up the valley especially with the sun helping out now that we get only frezzing rain.  It could be really terrible.
 
Definitely still possible, these situations can be surprising like that. I would prefer sleet if can't get snow over freezing rain but I have a feeling it's going to be equally if not more treacherous tomorrow morning as it was end of day Monday and Tuesday morning. A little ice is a big deal in normal circumstances let alone with many roads even in Knoxville sill ice/snow packed.
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1 hour ago, Silas Lang said:

My fears look like they are coming to fruition. Ice, ice baby. 

 

Oddly enough, the RGEM is actually trending the snow line into the central valley with limited ice the past couple of runs. Curious to see if the 12z holds. I want that solution to be correct! lol 

Yeah, it many times has the winning hand here but, pretty strong WAA at 850 will probably give it to the Hrrr, or a combination of both Models may be the route it takes. 

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11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

If this happens as a drizzle/ight rain scenario it's the worst way to get freezing rain for travel. If it rains hard it builds up on raised surfaces but the way roads are designed to shed water, the water starts running and it's harder to freeze. But light rain that slowly builds, that's just the worst.

It really is worse for it to be light. When I lived in Asheville, new years eve 2017, it sprinkled for maybe 5 or 10 minutes? But the temps has been cold and it instantly made the roads treacherous. I had to walk home five miles because I almost died driving and just decided to park the truck, wasn't worth it. Numerous wrecks, stalled traffic, terrible all around and all over like .01 inch of freezing rain. 

Worst part was you couldn't even see any ice. But my truck certainly felt it. Needless to say, one of the few new years I spent alone. lol 

 

 

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The WAA is shocking. Started out at 11.8 degrees this morning. Already pushing 40 in just a few hours.
Wow that is incredible! Aren't cruising upward like that up this way. Seems to plateaued around 25/26 here since clouds moved in. Snow still isn't melting here.
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Should those of us in West Knox/Loudon Co. area be concerned about power outages with the possibility of the freezing rain later? Thankfully, it's something we've mostly avoided this week with the mega-snowfall. But freezing rain on power lines -- are we forecasted to get enough accretion to worry about losing power? Thanks for all of you who share your knowledge on a regular basis.

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Should those of us in West Knox/Loudon Co. area be concerned about power outages with the possibility of the freezing rain later? Thankfully, it's something we've mostly avoided this week with the mega-snowfall. But freezing rain on power lines -- are we forecasted to get enough accretion to worry about losing power? Thanks for all of you who share your knowledge on a regular basis.

I know KUB classifies <.12 inches has impact on trees and power lines. i am guessing it would be the same for lcub.>

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1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Yeah I believe the higher elevation actually works a bit in favor of warmer in this scenario at least initially. Lower points will trap shallow cold easier. Though with snowpack think everyone with it, will likely get the freezing rain in general.
 

I know in 2015 we had a massive ice storm here in Crossville while Knoxville and most places off the Plateau got snow. Just a past example. It was about 1.5 inches of ice here with no power for over a week, while other places got a foot of snow if I remember correctly.

 

It also occurred right after a frigid week of snow and below 0 temps.

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1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Should add I've made it to 25 and overcast conditions are either moving in or developing. Can't tell for sure, but it seems like it developed overhead rather than moved in from the west. Anyone on the plateau have overcast skies or sunshine?

It's been very cloudy here ever since I posted the 33 degree temp.

This is looking west

Screenshot_20240118_120131_Ring.jpg?ex=6

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Should those of us in West Knox/Loudon Co. area be concerned about power outages with the possibility of the freezing rain later? Thankfully, it's something we've mostly avoided this week with the mega-snowfall. But freezing rain on power lines -- are we forecasted to get enough accretion to worry about losing power? Thanks for all of you who share your knowledge on a regular basis.
A tenth of an inch isn't too terrible, but all it takes is 1 weaker tree, then adding hundreds of pounds of ice to the weight to it to fall and take a line out. So it's definitely possible. A lot of folks don't think about the combined weight a mature tree especially a pine or cedar is holding up with a tenth of an inch of ice on every nook and cranny. It's an astounding amount of weight up to the weight of a small car. For my area trees still have snow on them that is sealed to the tree by freezing rain at the end of the snow Monday. That already has pines and cedars bending under the weight. Add more freezing rain and Friday wind gusts 25-30mph and I think it's a guarantee for at least sporadic outages. I don't think widespread outages but definitely will be some.
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