Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 45 minutes ago, John1122 said: The RGEM is good with northern stream stuff. Hope that's the case here. Yeah, it definitely proved itself itr the last few Winters. Pretty much spot on in most cases. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 17 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I don’t see areas with 6-8” of snow on the ground warming 30 degrees or more tomorrow. This system isn’t that strong and it’s not a wrapped up cutter with strong advection. . My thing is, I think we can easily stay below freezing at the surface, but we still get rain. It will just be freezing rain. A little warm air up high is not impacted by the ground. Maybe best case, there is lower level cold that keeps it sleet or something? I don't know. Just worried about the impacts of this rain on 9 inches of snow. I would love snow instead! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 MRX updated their snow map I actually think they're being too aggressive, at least for Sevier County. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 OHX Ice accumulation map which I know aren't hand drawn has almost all of Meigs, McMinn and probably Loudon county showing up to a tenth of an inch freezing rain. I believe their graphic more than I do MRX as it's just more reasonable. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcox3523 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Sorry for the question, but I've not been following like the last system... What's the timeframe we are looking at here? Driving from New Tazewell to Knoxville for work, for the first time this week, tomorrow and want to make sure I can actually make it home. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Sorry for the question, but I've not been following like the last system... What's the timeframe we are looking at here? Driving from New Tazewell to Knoxville for work, for the first time this week, tomorrow and want to make sure I can actually make it home. Thanks in advance. Likely evening. Exact time would be hard to guess, but probably not earlier than 5 PM and probably no later than 8PM for that start time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcox3523 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Appreciate it, sir! We've still got a ton of snow and just wanted to be aware of what I was driving into. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I'm digging this weekend for my backyard. Single digits and NW powder. Sounds like a good time! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utvols235 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I’m not sure I understand the measurement for Chattanooga here. Pardon my ignorance. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Utvols235 said: I’m not sure I understand the measurement for Chattanooga here. Pardon my ignorance. . From what I can see, it's the only model with that extensive area of icing. The 0Z high res. Fv 3 has predominately snow in SEKY/SWVA. The 0Z 3k Nam as well. Fwiw, it may be right but, I've found the Hrrr has a bit of a warm bias in upper east TN and SWVA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utvols235 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 From what I can see, it's the only model with that extensive area of icing. The 0Z high res. Fv 3 has predominately snow in SEKY/SWVA. The 0Z 3k Nam as well. Fwiw, it may be right but, I've found the Hrrr has a bit of a warm bias in upper east TN and SWVA. Thanks. I will say we came close to our predicted high today but not quite. Stayed below freezing all day. Whatever snow we did have must have made an impact on that. Wonder if that plays an issue tomorrow. Granted I have no idea what I’m talking about . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, Utvols235 said: Thanks. I will say we came close to our predicted high today but not quite. Stayed below freezing all day. Whatever snow we did have must have made an impact on that. Wonder if that plays an issue tomorrow. Granted I have no idea what I’m talking about . All Models were too high on forecasted lows and highs in snow covered areas. Snow cover will play a part. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 My thing is, I think we can easily stay below freezing at the surface, but we still get rain. It will just be freezing rain. A little warm air up high is not impacted by the ground. Maybe best case, there is lower level cold that keeps it sleet or something? I don't know. Just worried about the impacts of this rain on 9 inches of snow. I would love snow instead! I completely agree with you. I guess I should have expressed my concern is that this could be much worse than 8” of snow. It’s been so cold that the ambient temperature may need to get above 35 for the rain to not freeze on contact . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Likely evening. Exact time would be hard to guess, but probably not earlier than 5 PM and probably no later than 8PM for that start time.I agree with this going by the mods but sometimes these clippers move faster than modeled. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 So much for me loving this weather. Last two nights I’ve been at a Knoxville HS keeping the boilers on. I can’t let the domestic water freeze and bust but high natural gas demand is sending my units into flame failure. I’m one of a couple guys who work on this equipment so I have to be here but I’ve got a 9 year old and wife at home who’s recovering from a double mastectomy surgery because of breast cancer. Trying to get to some of these schools is not easy. . 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 I've just blew through my predicted low. My zone forecast says 15, my point forecast says 13. It's down to 9 degrees already. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 So much for me loving this weather. Last two nights I’ve been at a Knoxville HS keeping the boilers on. I can’t let the domestic water freeze and bust but high natural gas demand is sending my units into flame failure. I’m one of a couple guys who work on this equipment so I have to be here but I’ve got a 9 year old and wife at home who’s recovering from a double mastectomy surgery because of breast cancer. Trying to get to some of these schools is not easy. .That sucks man, to have so much going on at once is difficult. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I've just blew through my predicted low. My zone forecast says 15, my point forecast says 13. It's down to 9 degrees already. I haven't busted my low, but I'm at it now. My point forecast low is 12 that is what I'm at now. I imagine I'll be much lower by daybreak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I've just blew through my predicted low. My zone forecast says 15, my point forecast says 13. It's down to 9 degrees already. I’m at 8 degrees right now. I’m afraid we got issues tomorrow unless WAA kicks in. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I’m at 8 degrees right now. I’m afraid we got issues tomorrow unless WAA kicks in. . Gfs holds and has Snow NETN/SEKY and SWVA. 2-3" SEKY and SWVA. 10:1 Ratio. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 The Canadian crept south with the snow. The 3 inch line crept into NE Campbell County that run. The one inch line is down across Knox and Davidson in Middle Tn. Almost looks like the snow footprint models were putting out a few days ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 06z HRRR really bumped up the ice accumulation. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Forecast low was 13 I'm sitting at 1 in loudon they have also added us to the winter weather advisory.Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 30 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: Forecast low was 13 I'm sitting at 1 in loudon they have also added us to the winter weather advisory. Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk Yea, I dropped to 3 now back up to 6; seems like all the NWS and local Mets know is reading models. I think my low was supposed to be 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Tough morning to forecast temps. My low was 19 here on the hill, but there are near 0 readings within just a couple of miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 Degrees this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 wInds are east here,S already in West Tn,NW in east,just going by the NWS OBS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 HRRR looks icy and MRX agrees(light icing to clarify): Isentropic lift ahead of a surface low to our west will result in increasing clouds and light precipitation this evening into the overnight hours. Confidence is increasing in freezing rain and light ice accumulation across the region, especially for the valley around 0z and later this evening. Model guidance continues to show a warm nose in the 2 to 4C range around 800-850mb which should melt any snow to freezing rain. Amounts appear light, but most areas should expect around 0.1 inch or less with localized spots up to 0.2 inch of ice accretion. We have trended towards the HRRR and colder guidance for temperatures with this system which seem to better account for the dense, cold air across the valley. This is a case where pattern recognition is important to consider. Models routinely overestimate the surface warm air in these situations and move the cold air across the valley out too quickly. With this dense, arctic airmass and snowpack, shallow cold air will be very slow to exit the valley, especially sheltered valleys across the area. This light freezing rain will likely create hazardous travel conditions overnight and into Friday morning. We have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory based on the slightly cooler forecast and additional areal coverage of light ice accretion. Colder air will advect into the region behind the cold front on Friday with some light snow possible across the area. Most locations will only see flurries or a dusting, but a few inches of snow will be possible across the higher elevations of the mountains where northwest flow and low-level moisture persists. This light snow continues through the day on Friday and tapers off to flurries and rime ice on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: HRRR looks icy and MRX agrees(light icing to clarify): Isentropic lift ahead of a surface low to our west will result in increasing clouds and light precipitation this evening into the overnight hours. Confidence is increasing in freezing rain and light ice accumulation across the region, especially for the valley around 0z and later this evening. Model guidance continues to show a warm nose in the 2 to 4C range around 800-850mb which should melt any snow to freezing rain. Amounts appear light, but most areas should expect around 0.1 inch or less with localized spots up to 0.2 inch of ice accretion. We have trended towards the HRRR and colder guidance for temperatures with this system which seem to better account for the dense, cold air across the valley. This is a case where pattern recognition is important to consider. Models routinely overestimate the surface warm air in these situations and move the cold air across the valley out too quickly. With this dense, arctic airmass and snowpack, shallow cold air will be very slow to exit the valley, especially sheltered valleys across the area. This light freezing rain will likely create hazardous travel conditions overnight and into Friday morning. We have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory based on the slightly cooler forecast and additional areal coverage of light ice accretion. Colder air will advect into the region behind the cold front on Friday with some light snow possible across the area. Most locations will only see flurries or a dusting, but a few inches of snow will be possible across the higher elevations of the mountains where northwest flow and low-level moisture persists. This light snow continues through the day on Friday and tapers off to flurries and rime ice on Friday night. My fears look like they are coming to fruition. Ice, ice baby. Oddly enough, the RGEM is actually trending the snow line into the central valley with limited ice the past couple of runs. Curious to see if the 12z holds. I want that solution to be correct! lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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