ShawnEastTN Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12z RGEM:This makes me feel a little better. I honestly think frozen precip will be easier to deal with over liquid that flash freezes trapped by ice/snow plow banks on roads here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Honestly I could see this starting as snow and being mostly snow for areas north of 40 if we get decent precip rates. Less forcing and we get freezing drizzle and rain. I feel like back in the ancient times this used to be a pretty common set up with WAA over a snowpack. Typically stated as snow but transitions to ZR pretty quick. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We need that rain/snow line to get further south. The good thing is it looks like this is at night for E TN. Ideally, we want clear skies for a couple of hours before clouds cap the temp drop - we may not get that wish. Snow cover is helpful, but the more important piece is the layers that snow would fall. Snow gives a minor bump in our favor, but ultimately it will be the thermal profile of the incoming system which looks like a mess for lower elevations. Maybe TRI and SW VA will have better thermals. IDK. My investment in this one is pretty low. Looks like rain or a sloppiest. The 12z GFS and CMC have steadily climbed north during the past several runs which is very normal w/ a northern stream system. Still thinking mainly frozen NE sections as enough mixing and lifting of deep Valley cold should drop incoming SW WAA to below freezing all levels from about Rogersville to Kingsport North. Probably mix from there south through Knoxville. With all the snow pack to our wsw it is possible the snow line could be further south as the cold lower air will lift as it is pulled ne by the System. Then there's a backlash that may get at least northern sections. Just my antique 2 cents. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I really feel like today is a bit of a litmus test on model temperatures. Most models have me rising into the upper 20's today. I started at -1 being a stones throw from Watts Bar Lake kept me warmer than a few miles away from the water where many PWS were -5 to -10. My temp has risen into the teens but seems almost stalled at 15/16 degrees. If we bust colder than models forecast then I think models are not handling the deep snowpack in our area well. Weird to say deep snowpack in my area being in the valley but it's deep compared to a normal snowfall. Going to take longer to get rid of it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: I really feel like today is a bit of a litmus test on model temperatures. Most models have me rising into the upper 20's today. I started at -1 being a stones throw from Watts Bar Lake kept me warmer than a few miles away from the water where many PWS were -5 to -10. My temp has risen into the teens but seems almost stalled at 15/16 degrees. If we bust colder than models forecast then I think models are not handling the deep snowpack in our area well. Weird to say deep snowpack in my area being in the valley but it's deep compared to a normal snowfall. Going to take longer to get rid of it. I know they are not handling it well in my area; I was down to -9.8; forecast low was 5, so far, I am up to 14.5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I know they are not handling it well in my area; I was down to -9.8; forecast low was 5, so far, I am up to 14.5Same my general forecast low across models was 5 above. I beat that by 6, but neighbors further away from the water beat it by 10 or more degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: 4 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: I know they are not handling it well in my area; I was down to -9.8; forecast low was 5, so far, I am up to 14.5 Same my general forecast low across models was 5 above. I beat that by 6, but neighbors further away from the water beat it by 10 or more degrees. It requires a smarter mind than mine but it is strange to me how algorithms have not been developed to handle this better. I knew we were going negative yesterday afternoon when it dropped from 12 @ 530 down to 3 or 4 by 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 I've noticed most of the models are coming in weaker/less QPF. I'll be shocked if such a powerful Arctic front comes through without at least snow showers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Strangely, my low temp last night was identical to my coldest temp in the arctic blast last year after Christmas. 5.4 degrees. Maybe that's the limit without snow cover around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 I got down to -8 this morning. Close to the -10 the GFS had for me. Way colder than the 1 the NAM had. Currently at 15 and will probably get to the 26-28 range today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We are at 16 right now, was supposed to be in the 20s already so Greeneville is running colder than modeled. Will be surprised if we hit the forecast high of 24 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Big difference in Temps in east Tn in relation to snowpack. Check out the difference in lows in the Johnson City area compared to Knoxville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, John1122 said: I've noticed most of the models are coming in weaker/less QPF. I'll be shocked if such a powerful Arctic front comes through without at least snow showers. Yeah, I suspect they'll beef back up if System doesn't trend further north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Probably hit my high today about 5 degrees below forecast. Usually about 3 pm is my maximum and 24 is all I could muster. Not really melting snow, still in trees like it just happened and trees are usually the first place to lose snow for me before the ground. If we have a clear night most of the night but clouds move in toward daybreak locking temps down, I am just not sure WAA is going to have a big enough impact locally to really help with tomorrow's storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 000 FXUS64 KOHX 171951 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 151 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Issued at 1256 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Surface ridge is just now moving across Middle Tennessee, so we`ll start to pick up a stronger southerly flow soon, but temperatures still remain well below freezing despite a large warm-up from this morning`s lows. So tonight`s lows won`t be nearly as cold as last night`s, fortunately. Overnight, a developing surface system and upper trough are going to approach Middle Tennessee from the west. So we can expect more wintry weather tomorrow across most of Middle Tennessee. We have trimmed forecast highs for tomorrow (went with the 17Z CONSShort instead of the NBM). The NBM was giving us about a 22F warm-up, and that`s not going to happen given the expected precipitation (i.e., evaporative cooling) and the existing snowpack, even with a strengthening southerly flow. So freezing rain is likely to occur tomorrow over much of Middle Tennessee during the day, and into the evening along the Cumberland Plateau. Forecast soundings do point strongly to a freezing rain profile. While precipitation is expected to be light, even 0.01" of freezing rain is all we need to re-aggravate our travel difficulties. The greatest ice accumulations will occur along the Highland Rim and over to the Clarksville/Waverly areas, where accumulations of 0.05" to 0.07" are expected. Light snow accumulations are also possible in some areas, but not enough to meet advisory criteria. Thus, we are issuing a Winter Weather Advisory beginning at 18Z tomorrow for light ice accumulations and not for snow. The advisory will include most of Middle Tennessee west of I-65, Highland Rim & Cumberland Plateau. There are some areas that are being left out since not everyone will be cold enough to support ice accumulations. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1256 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 The advisory will remain in place until 15Z Friday, mainly for lingering impacts. Another frigid air mass will work its way in behind tomorrow`s storm system, so that overnight lows will drop back into the single digits most areas Friday night and again Saturday night. Some locations will sneak above freezing on Sunday. Everyone else will have to wait until Monday. Next week looks to be significantly warmer than this week, thank goodness. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 MRX has issued a WWA for part of the forum area in regards to this system. --------------------- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 318 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 TNZ012>017-035>040-042-044-046-067-069-070-073-181000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0003.240119T0000Z-240120T0000Z/ Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Morgan- Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene- Washington TN-Northwest Carter-Roane-Knox-Jefferson-North Sevier- Including the cities of Big South Fork National, Oneida, Smokey Junction, Elgin, Huntsville, Norma, Slick Rock, Fincastle, La Follette, Elk Valley, Jellico, White Oak, Caryville, Royal Blue, Lone Mountain, Sandlick, Springdale, Arthur, Harrogate-Shawanee, Clairfield, Howard Quarter, Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Pine Orchard, High Point, Petros, Oak Ridge, Clinton, Maynardville, Norris Lake, Paulette, Rose Hill, Sharps Chapel, Luttrell, Bean Station, Alpha, Morristown, Russellville, Bybee, Newport, Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Harriman, Eagle Furnace, Rockwood, Bradbury, Fairview, Kingston, Oliver Springs, Bearden, Knoxville, Lake Forest, Jefferson City, Strawberry Plains, Chestnut Hill, Dandridge, White Pine, Harrisburg, Kodak, McMahan, Sevierville, Seymour, and Pigeon Forge 318 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Northern and central portions of East Tennessee. * WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks like for the Knoxville Area the advisory is for freezing Rain. I hate that. It will make everything a mess. Hope they are wrong and we can pull off some surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 OHX just issued a WWA for most of the midstate. Bizarre looking advisory area based on the probabilities. Like Bearman mentioned, hate that most of this may be FZRA. While surface temps may verify on the under, I don't see thermals a couple thousand feet up cooperating. What a mess! Hopefully, trends will be wetter or snowier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just read wwa for Swva and tenn mountains. Saying up to 4 inches of snow and a glaze of ice. That's Winter Storm Criteria actually. If I were the forecaster there now, I'd go with a Winter Storm Watch and a WWA. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hillbilly Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I am a snow lover not freezing rain fan. This time I hope the rain or freezing rain forecast doesn't verify. I don't know how with the 9 inches of snow in my driveway and on the neighborhood roads the rain doesn't freeze when it hits the cold pavement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 19 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Just read wwa for Swva and tenn mountains. Saying up to 4 inches of snow and a glaze of ice. That's Winter Storm Criteria actually. If I were the forecaster there now, I'd go with a Winter Storm Watch and a WWA. For extreme counties of NE TN, the 18z GFS easily had warning criteria. I didn't pay as close attention to SW VA! I have been following this system loosely, and I need to pay better attention. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 11 minutes ago, Hillbilly said: I am a snow lover not freezing rain fan. This time I hope the rain or freezing rain forecast doesn't verify. I don't know how with the 9 inches of snow in my driveway and on the neighborhood roads the rain doesn't freeze when it hits the cold pavement. I think that even if we make it to the mid 30s the ground is so cold and frozen, it could still freeze up in spots. My road is nasty. Compacted snow several inches thick. I think they tried to plow it, but it just made it solid? Anyway, rain will not help that glacier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 RGEM is persistent. Also been the best with temps, for me at least. It shows a chilly upper 20s in the early morning hours with rain for the central valley. Temp profiles seem to highlight snowpack fairly well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 318 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-181000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0003.240119T0000Z-240120T1200Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Monroe-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico, Coker Creek, Rose Hill, Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 318 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 4 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 42 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: RGEM is persistent. Also been the best with temps, for me at least. It shows a chilly upper 20s in the early morning hours with rain for the central valley. Temp profiles seem to highlight snowpack fairly well. The RGEM is good with northern stream stuff. Hope that's the case here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I think that even if we make it to the mid 30s the ground is so cold and frozen, it could still freeze up in spots. My road is nasty. Compacted snow several inches thick. I think they tried to plow it, but it just made it solid? Anyway, rain will not help that glacier. Yeah I am stunned they didn't include Meigs and Loudon counties. They love the magical meteorological barrier of I-40, completely disregarding in both counties there is 10 inches of snow on the ground. Kind of bizarre. It's going to be treacherous even with regular liquid, roads here are still snow/ice packed with concrete tough ice that's 3 inches thick on the pavement. Plows can't break it up and salt has had no impact. You take that plus some rain of any variety then flash freeze it with the snow and ice already there and it might be really bad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I will not at all be surprised if parts of the valley stays below freezing all day tomorrow. As soon as WAA starts there will be a strong temp inversion and low level clouds will build. With the snow pack, as soon as the clouds build in those surface temps will be locked in. I also have a concern about freezing fog. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I will not at all be surprised if parts of the valley stays below freezing all day tomorrow. As soon as WAA starts there will be a strong temp inversion and low level clouds will build. With the snow pack, as soon as the clouds build in those surface temps will be locked in. I also have a concern about freezing fog. .I'm expecting to get near zero again tonight, I know they are expecting SW winds to advect warm air, but SW of me for about 200 miles is snow pack all the way to Huntsville Alabama. I'm sure that distance of snow pack will have an impact on the temperature here all the way to Knox County and beyond. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I'm expecting to get near zero again tonight, I know they are expecting SW winds to advect warm air, but SW of me for about 200 miles is snow pack all the way to Huntsville Alabama. I'm sure that distance of snow pack will have an impact on the temperature here all the way to Knox County and beyond.I don’t see areas with 6-8” of snow on the ground warming 30 degrees or more tomorrow. This system isn’t that strong and it’s not a wrapped up cutter with strong advection. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 21 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: 26 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I will not at all be surprised if parts of the valley stays below freezing all day tomorrow. As soon as WAA starts there will be a strong temp inversion and low level clouds will build. With the snow pack, as soon as the clouds build in those surface temps will be locked in. I also have a concern about freezing fog. . I'm expecting to get near zero again tonight, I know they are expecting SW winds to advect warm air, but SW of me for about 200 miles is snow pack all the way to Huntsville Alabama. I'm sure that distance of snow pack will have an impact on the temperature here all the way to Knox County and beyond. Exactly what I'm thinking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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