Wurbus Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 MRX Discussion this afternoon: As the sun sets Wednesday night, temperatures will quickly fall into the teens and into the single digits by Thursday morning. Hazardous driving conditions remain possible across areas that have lingering moisture/snow on roadways as they will see refreezing. Heights rise on Thursday ahead of our next system and temperatures climb back into the mid 30s to low 40s. Precip chances increase Thursday afternoon into Thursday night areawide. This is in response to a weak shortwave moving across the area. QPF hasn`t changed too much since the previous forecast. QPF is still generally around 0.25 inches. Rain is still expected south of I-40, with mixed precip along and north of I-40 and the Cumberland Plateau, and all snow across northeast TN, southwest VA, and the east TN mountains. The predominate precip type still looks like it will be rain/snow but some light freezing rain can`t be ruled either based on sounding data. Any freezing rain should be relatively light with ice accretion averaging a few hundredths of an inch. Precip exits the central TN valley by late Friday morning but will remain across northeast TN and southwest VA into Friday evening. This is due to an upper level trough moving through the Ohio River Valley that brings additional moisture across the aforementioned areas. Storm total snow still similar, with 1 to 2 inches possible across the east TN mountains and southwest VA. Lighter accumulations up to half an inch possible north of I-40 and along the I-81 corridor. NBM prob data shows around a 40 to 50% probability of 1" of snow or more across the east TN mountains and southwest VA. Another bout of Arctic air moves in Friday night and lasts through the weekend but no measurable precip is expected during this time. Overnight lows on Friday and Saturday will be in the single digits areawide. With low temperatures in the single digits, and breezy northwest winds, windchill values below zero are likely across all areas. In these conditions frostbite can begin in as little as 30 minutes with outdoor exposure. By Monday we are back into the low to mid 40s as high pressure develops to our southeast behind the departing trough. Our next shot of precip is on Tuesday but all rain is expected for this round as temps will be in the upper 40s to low 50s during the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 16 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: What does this mean? Rain? Hopefully not ice. Euro seems to be showing more of a inverted trough into Mid Tn compared to the GFS,thats why you dont see such a strong LLJ into Mid Tn,its snow to the north and mixing towards the AL/Tn line here in Mid Tn.GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 The RGEM was a bit south that time too, especially compared to 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 I expect the 18z GFS to back down or the other models to keep getting more frozen precip and less rain from here on. Kentucky looks pretty good for several inches of snow as do the mountains. More ice for everyone else per models but MRX is very confident in there not being much in the way of precip type other than rain/snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Looks like the GFS is sticking to its guns. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 This looks like a clipper but it’s been so long since we had one I forgot what they looked like! They used to always lay down 1-3in to the north of the low as it slid by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Man, a solid hit. Regardless of totals, even a half inch would feel big on top of this snow pack. So it's GFS vs the world? lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Spoke too soon. That one was more juicy than the average clipper! Looks good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Unlike the last event with the DGZ 11,000ft up the DGZ may actually be just a few hundred off the surface. Absurd NW soundings on the gfs. I can get behind this one 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 For these types of systems, we want them south and then have them work back north. Roughly 80% of the time, these types of systems tend to trend north. This is a little bit of a different animal in that it has such strong cold behind it. In other words, this isn't your average clipper. I would guess the qpf is under done. I would tend to think the rain/snow line is too far south on the GFS. But...there is snow on the ground and this appears to be at night. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Here’s the forecast from “Captain Accurate” (David Aldrich). Right or wrong…..no idea!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 15 minutes ago, Greyhound said: Here’s the forecast from “Captain Accurate” (David Aldrich). Right or wrong…..no idea!! . Man, he was awful with the storm we just finished. I hope he's off in a good way with this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Man, he was awful with the storm we just finished. I hope he's off in a good way with this one. I mean……he DID work at WVLT!!! LOL!!!To be fair, I do like Aldrich and the enthusiasm he brings to his forecasts. But, I almost always come to these pages in regards to weather forecasts . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Greyhound said: I mean……he DID work at WVLT!!! LOL!!! To be fair, I do like Aldrich and the enthusiasm he brings to his forecasts. But, I almost always come to these pages in regards to weather forecasts . He's just over the top with the "Captain Accurate" stuff. He had the heaviest snow yesterday over the areas that mix/rained. Todd Howell is about it for local TV mets that seem to be aware of meteorology and the microclimates here. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, John1122 said: He's just over the top with the "Captain Accurate" stuff. He had the heaviest snow yesterday over the areas that mix/rained. Todd Howell is about it for local TV mets that seem to be aware of meteorology and the microclimates here. Great all around guy too ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 He's just over the top with the "Captain Accurate" stuff. He had the heaviest snow yesterday over the areas that mix/rained. Todd Howell is about it for local TV mets that seem to be aware of meteorology and the microclimates here. Yeah Todd is my fav local met. I swear most mets on local stations are just there for entertainment value and don't seem to study the topography of their forecast area aside from knowing the Smokies are generally colder. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks like the RGEM has been trending south with that snow line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 0z GFS essentially the same as 18z. A hair north and less precip, but still shows snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Someone updated the snow depth on the GFS to show a lot less than what is on the ground. Probably because of the feedback issues. 18z had Knoxville around -15 tonight and 00z is showing 3 tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 The aforementioned GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 15 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: 0z GFS essentially the same as 18z. A hair north and less precip, but still shows snow. Increased Snow amounts up this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Canadian maintained the 40 and North snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I’ll take my 2-4” just to make this week one to really remember. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 55 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Someone updated the snow depth on the GFS to show a lot less than what is on the ground. Probably because of the feedback issues. 18z had Knoxville around -15 tonight and 00z is showing 3 tonight. I am at -4 now with 7" on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 11 hours ago, Wurbus said: Someone updated the snow depth on the GFS to show a lot less than what is on the ground. Probably because of the feedback issues. 18z had Knoxville around -15 tonight and 00z is showing 3 tonight. Speaking of models and temps, I noticed the NAM was about 10 degrees warmer than RGEM for this morning. I think the RGEM is doing better with temps and picking up snowpack. For this reason, I think I trust it more than the NAM for this event. Now, looks like for some areas that will be freezing rain, but still frozen. NAM wants cold rain for all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Silas Lang said: Speaking of models and temps, I noticed the NAM was about 10 degrees warmer than RGEM for this morning. I think the RGEM is doing better with temps and picking up snowpack. For this reason, I think I trust it more than the NAM for this event. Now, looks like for some areas that will be freezing rain, but still frozen. NAM wants cold rain for all. Also, would this event register for an advisory? Friday will have dropping temps even if they manage to get above freezing in the morning. I can imagine it will be a huge mess, even if precip is limited and rain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Also, would this event register for an advisory? Friday will have dropping temps even if they manage to get above freezing in the morning. I can imagine it will be a huge mess, even if precip is limited and rain...This! Even if we get to 34 and rain where I am located there are piles of snow along the side of the road from plows. Those piles are not going to melt from the low QPF of this storm even above freezing with rain. There will be water trapped on the road surface unable to drain over the plow banks that will flash freeze and likely be worse than before at the peak of the 10 inch snow. I expect some hazard product to be issued likely advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12z RGEM: 4 run trend of RGEM is less qpf and a tick south: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 12z RGEM: 4 run trend of RGEM is less qpf and a tick south: Yeah, I noticed the GFS went a little north. Almost like RGEM and GFS have met in the middle. If I had to guess, I assume places with a thick snowpack will hover just at or below freezing, resulting in freezing rain or snow. The valleys may fair better since they will pool cold air. Wondering if MRX will pull the trigger on an advisory. I think it's needed if for precaution if nothing else. People may falsely believe that their roads are clear and not realize that it's just a sheet of ice. Temps should fall on Friday too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We need that rain/snow line to get further south. The good thing is it looks like this is at night for E TN. Ideally, we want clear skies for a couple of hours before clouds cap the temp drop - we may not get that wish. Snow cover is helpful, but the more important piece is the layers that snow would fall. Snow gives a minor bump in our favor, but ultimately it will be the thermal profile of the incoming system which looks like a mess for lower elevations. Maybe TRI and SW VA will have better thermals. IDK. My investment in this one is pretty low. Looks like rain or a sloppiest. The 12z GFS and CMC have steadily climbed north during the past several runs which is very normal w/ a northern stream system. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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