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XMAS Miracle: Blizzard of 2010 Lead-in Dialogue


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Kind of off topic, but I know there are a lot of skiers here. Planning on skiing Monday. Any recommendations? Current plan is Ragged. Never skied there, but hear it's pretty good in the trees.... that is if there's enough cover. I'm guessing there shoud be enough by noon..

any help/recommendations appreciated.

And Merry Christmas to all! Feels llike I got my Red Rider!

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From a met standpoint, this is incredible...I can't believe what just happened in the last 24 hrs. Stunning. Absolutely Stunning.

I'm still wary of a further nw track and ptype issues, but man this is spectacular.

Scott, what makes you wary? Is it just the fact that they did shift west and you think it' might be a continuing trend or is there a feature that you are seeing that makes you think it might do so?

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Yeah, I know what you guys want....lol. Actually, dryslot...you might not want this any further, because I could see a dryslot (haha) approaching cstl Maine.

Things are smoothing out model wise, very tight cluster on a monster south of LI , with such tremendous inflow and crashing heights any mix should constitute minimal parts of the storm. Look for as HM said internal gravity waves, tremendous CsI banding. I might not be good at predicting ahead too far but my review of the dynamics this AM tells me this has the potential to be a top ten impact. As Is usual some areas will get some downslope drying issues but all share in 'The Christmas Miracle Storm of 2010' today in between egg Nog and food I will be checking the CSI/ Gravity wave potential, mesomodel time. Good time for all to pull the trigger and let all loved ones know this is real and they are spectacular.

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OKAY GROUP POLL:

I personally feel vs the 12z RUC Init and water vapor the NAM was a significant winnter. What do you all feel? Look up north near the lakes, GFS was already dumping energy/had merged, NAM/RUC have separate veins of energy.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_500_000l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_500_006l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_006l.gif

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This storm will be historic in another sense. The divorce rate will be directly proportional to the snowfall rate. I'm not leaving this computer for 2 days. :lol:

If it's snowing, I'll be spendingmore time enjoying it outside than on my computer (though I'll come in to post totals, look at radar, etc.)

THe (false?) anxiety about the NW trend continuing is really lost on BOX. They're sticking to NAM whichpretty much cuts things off NW of a Pittsfield/Greenfield line.

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Kind of off topic, but I know there are a lot of skiers here. Planning on skiing Monday. Any recommendations? Current plan is Ragged. Never skied there, but hear it's pretty good in the trees.... that is if there's enough cover. I'm guessing there shoud be enough by noon..

any help/recommendations appreciated.

And Merry Christmas to all! Feels llike I got my Red Rider!

Wind holds will be a huge problem in all areas.

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If it's snowing, I'll be spendingmore time enjoying it outside than on my computer (though I'll come in to post totals, look at radar, etc.)

THe (false?) anxiety about the NW trend continuing is really lost on BOX. They're sticking to NAM whichpretty much cuts things off NW of a Pittsfield/Greenfield line.

I'll be on the computer because of my location. I want to see everyone else revel in snow chaos. :thumbsup:

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If it's snowing, I'll be spendingmore time enjoying it outside than on my computer (though I'll come in to post totals, look at radar, etc.)

THe (false?) anxiety about the NW trend continuing is really lost on BOX. They're sticking to NAM whichpretty much cuts things off NW of a Pittsfield/Greenfield line.

ALB has no watches up yet for southern most Vt either.

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If it's snowing, I'll be spendingmore time enjoying it outside than on my computer (though I'll come in to post totals, look at radar, etc.)

THe (false?) anxiety about the NW trend continuing is really lost on BOX. They're sticking to NAM whichpretty much cuts things off NW of a Pittsfield/Greenfield line.

If there's a real trend it will be obvious at 12z.

Through 6h on the RUC I'd say it's 50/50 GFS/NAM in terms of what might be 12h accuracy on the 6z. No real clear winner, each right and wrong in some critical respects.

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ALB has no watches up yet for southern most Vt either.

Yeah--I had mentioned that earlier. Scot's concerned about NW continuing. I'm concern it might collapse a bit SE (per 06z NAM) and BOX's decision to use that for their forecast). That's tempered by some of the comments posted here. I'm excited we'll get snow, but I'm not convinced it will be specatular here--even though your'e so close, the NAM depiction could have you getting some heavy stuff and me wtih advisory. lol

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If there's a real trend it will be obvious at 12z.

Through 6h on the RUC I'd say it's 50/50 GFS/NAM in terms of what might be 12h accuracy on the 6z. No real clear winner, each right and wrong in some critical respects.

Ok Scott, you say it, time for you to give us some numbers snow wise. Man o man.

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What was the deal on the EC and EC Ensembles? Track/precip/type?

Merry Christmas!

Interlude for playing with dolls...the kids wise guys...

12z ua looks pretty much like the models. GFS better handling of the structure in LA, NAM maybe a smidge better elsewhere but they look fine for 6-12 hour forecasts.

With the Monday storm and it may bear no basis in fact this time:

1. Gfs was worst between the EC/NAM/GFS. Nam was probably best. As we got into the trough I'd say the EC domintated in close once it figured it out.

2. Every other model was terrible including the nogaps.

I probably still think a track about on the BM is most likely, but there are wild cards.

Drying taking place in Bill Clinton country, she's starting to pop!

Expect some wild changes at 12z, I'm kind of thinking that we will see the continunity/burp muted out on this run and with the featues all in play on our own soil and with the last days fiasco error checking to the supreme FTW.

EC ensembles took the low to maybe 30 miles east of CHH or so. Mix maybe up to your area, but bombing low will help limit warm air penetration.

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Kind of off topic, but I know there are a lot of skiers here. Planning on skiing Monday. Any recommendations? Current plan is Ragged. Never skied there, but hear it's pretty good in the trees.... that is if there's enough cover. I'm guessing there shoud be enough by noon..

any help/recommendations appreciated.

And Merry Christmas to all! Feels llike I got my Red Rider!

I skied ragged last weekend and given that they only had an inch or two on the ground then they are not likely to open the glades if I had to guess.

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