MarkO Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Kind of off topic, but I know there are a lot of skiers here. Planning on skiing Monday. Any recommendations? Current plan is Ragged. Never skied there, but hear it's pretty good in the trees.... that is if there's enough cover. I'm guessing there shoud be enough by noon.. any help/recommendations appreciated. And Merry Christmas to all! Feels llike I got my Red Rider! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This storm will be historic in another sense. The divorce rate will be directly proportional to the snowfall rate. I'm not leaving this computer for 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 From a met standpoint, this is incredible...I can't believe what just happened in the last 24 hrs. Stunning. Absolutely Stunning. I'm still wary of a further nw track and ptype issues, but man this is spectacular. Scott, what makes you wary? Is it just the fact that they did shift west and you think it' might be a continuing trend or is there a feature that you are seeing that makes you think it might do so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This storm will be historic in another sense. The divorce rate will be directly proportional to the snowfall rate. I'm not leaving this computer for 2 days. lol......you got that right, I was already asked if i am going to be on it all day again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, I know what you guys want....lol. Actually, dryslot...you might not want this any further, because I could see a dryslot (haha) approaching cstl Maine. Things are smoothing out model wise, very tight cluster on a monster south of LI , with such tremendous inflow and crashing heights any mix should constitute minimal parts of the storm. Look for as HM said internal gravity waves, tremendous CsI banding. I might not be good at predicting ahead too far but my review of the dynamics this AM tells me this has the potential to be a top ten impact. As Is usual some areas will get some downslope drying issues but all share in 'The Christmas Miracle Storm of 2010' today in between egg Nog and food I will be checking the CSI/ Gravity wave potential, mesomodel time. Good time for all to pull the trigger and let all loved ones know this is real and they are spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OKAY GROUP POLL: I personally feel vs the 12z RUC Init and water vapor the NAM was a significant winnter. What do you all feel? Look up north near the lakes, GFS was already dumping energy/had merged, NAM/RUC have separate veins of energy. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_500_000l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_500_006l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_006l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This storm will be historic in another sense. The divorce rate will be directly proportional to the snowfall rate. I'm not leaving this computer for 2 days. If it's snowing, I'll be spendingmore time enjoying it outside than on my computer (though I'll come in to post totals, look at radar, etc.) THe (false?) anxiety about the NW trend continuing is really lost on BOX. They're sticking to NAM whichpretty much cuts things off NW of a Pittsfield/Greenfield line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Kind of off topic, but I know there are a lot of skiers here. Planning on skiing Monday. Any recommendations? Current plan is Ragged. Never skied there, but hear it's pretty good in the trees.... that is if there's enough cover. I'm guessing there shoud be enough by noon.. any help/recommendations appreciated. And Merry Christmas to all! Feels llike I got my Red Rider! Wind holds will be a huge problem in all areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If it's snowing, I'll be spendingmore time enjoying it outside than on my computer (though I'll come in to post totals, look at radar, etc.) THe (false?) anxiety about the NW trend continuing is really lost on BOX. They're sticking to NAM whichpretty much cuts things off NW of a Pittsfield/Greenfield line. I'll be on the computer because of my location. I want to see everyone else revel in snow chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If it's snowing, I'll be spendingmore time enjoying it outside than on my computer (though I'll come in to post totals, look at radar, etc.) THe (false?) anxiety about the NW trend continuing is really lost on BOX. They're sticking to NAM whichpretty much cuts things off NW of a Pittsfield/Greenfield line. ALB has no watches up yet for southern most Vt either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Every thread will be started by you from now on. Merry Christmas Bob! Thanks. I had some good vibes yesterday. This ones for Ray and I. Tough year for both of us but like the Red Sox, we're kicking the curse to the curb. I'll get to see the 12z NAM and GFS before heading out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If it's snowing, I'll be spendingmore time enjoying it outside than on my computer (though I'll come in to post totals, look at radar, etc.) THe (false?) anxiety about the NW trend continuing is really lost on BOX. They're sticking to NAM whichpretty much cuts things off NW of a Pittsfield/Greenfield line. If there's a real trend it will be obvious at 12z. Through 6h on the RUC I'd say it's 50/50 GFS/NAM in terms of what might be 12h accuracy on the 6z. No real clear winner, each right and wrong in some critical respects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Kevin may be the Reverend, but I'm your new God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ALB has no watches up yet for southern most Vt either. Yeah--I had mentioned that earlier. Scot's concerned about NW continuing. I'm concern it might collapse a bit SE (per 06z NAM) and BOX's decision to use that for their forecast). That's tempered by some of the comments posted here. I'm excited we'll get snow, but I'm not convinced it will be specatular here--even though your'e so close, the NAM depiction could have you getting some heavy stuff and me wtih advisory. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm with Scooter..I'd be cautious that a slight trend NW isn't still in order. Other than that we've pretty much honed in an HECS for areas 15-20 miles inland thru the entire interior. Just amazing. Still can't get over this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If there's a real trend it will be obvious at 12z. Through 6h on the RUC I'd say it's 50/50 GFS/NAM in terms of what might be 12h accuracy on the 6z. No real clear winner, each right and wrong in some critical respects. Ok Scott, you say it, time for you to give us some numbers snow wise. Man o man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ok Scott, you say it, time for you to give us some numbers snow wise. Man o man. Time to up your numbers lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 First call IMBY: 10-15'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did not stay up for the Euro, but nice to see a WSW for our area. Like where I am sitting on the mid coast of Maine for this one, if all holds true. Merry Christmas everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What was the deal on the EC and EC Ensembles? Track/precip/type? Merry Christmas! Interlude for playing with dolls...the kids wise guys... 12z ua looks pretty much like the models. GFS better handling of the structure in LA, NAM maybe a smidge better elsewhere but they look fine for 6-12 hour forecasts. With the Monday storm and it may bear no basis in fact this time: 1. Gfs was worst between the EC/NAM/GFS. Nam was probably best. As we got into the trough I'd say the EC domintated in close once it figured it out. 2. Every other model was terrible including the nogaps. I probably still think a track about on the BM is most likely, but there are wild cards. Drying taking place in Bill Clinton country, she's starting to pop! Expect some wild changes at 12z, I'm kind of thinking that we will see the continunity/burp muted out on this run and with the featues all in play on our own soil and with the last days fiasco error checking to the supreme FTW. EC ensembles took the low to maybe 30 miles east of CHH or so. Mix maybe up to your area, but bombing low will help limit warm air penetration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe it's virga..but maybe some surprise light snow/flurries today looking at radar. Already returns into far western CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 4-8" here, will update if needed after 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas Morning. What a fun read this forum was while watching all the model runs come in last night. Looks like there was a Christmas Miracle after all. Congrats to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 EC ensembles took the low to maybe 30 miles east of CHH or so. Mix maybe up to your area, but bombing low will help limit warm air penetration. Love me some of the Euro Ensembles..Man that track is just ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 So are we just looking for that thing diving though OK to join up with the Low in Louisiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's almost time folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas to all, it was a joy to experience the evolution of the Christmas Miracle Blizzard with you. Surreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 09z SREF's rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Kind of off topic, but I know there are a lot of skiers here. Planning on skiing Monday. Any recommendations? Current plan is Ragged. Never skied there, but hear it's pretty good in the trees.... that is if there's enough cover. I'm guessing there shoud be enough by noon.. any help/recommendations appreciated. And Merry Christmas to all! Feels llike I got my Red Rider! I skied ragged last weekend and given that they only had an inch or two on the ground then they are not likely to open the glades if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 4-8" here, will update if needed after 12z run. I would suspect more than that here as I am south east of you. This is simply fantastic!! Couldn't ask for a better Christmas gift! Merry Christmas all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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