XMAS Miracle: Blizzard of 2010 Lead-in Dialogue

[Quincy]

not sure I buy those minimums across eastern CT, unless at least one of the following two happens:

1. massive banding further west

2. dryslotting

[40/70 Benchmark]

Like you have stated "THIS IS THE BIG ONE."

About friggin time. Hopefully the CCB and CF will help us to go over the top. Sky is the limit.

I'm a bit nervous that I catch the se edge of that subsidence zone like I did in Dec '03, but I'm guessing that I don't now that this looks to track over cc.

Whatever, all I could have asked for was to be fortunate enough to be concered over that, at this point.

I think you're golden.

[ROOSTA]

not sure I buy those minimums across eastern CT, unless at least one of the following two happens:

1. massive banding further west

2. dryslotting

They look suspect, but then again it's showing up on just about every model.

Won't know till the either or is played out.

I'm out. Going to sleep till kickoff.

[Wx4cast]

Here are some Time Sections (TSEC) from the OOZ GFS. RH is color contoured. Temps are overlayed WITH snowgrowth region highlighted in lavender. Wind barbs usual convention in knots and upward vertical motion contoured in yellow.

1st Stattion is Pitsfiel and 2nd station is Manchester, VT:

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just woke up to walk the dog. I really don't care what happens from here on out b/c I know I'm getting decent snow but i will add a cautionary tale; don't discount a temporary changeover inside of 495. These big one's tend to wobble west in the latter stages and bring the big totals ORH west towards the hill towns.

My final call is: inside Rt 128 max = 12" due to some mixing ( Meaning Coast west to Framingham)

Orange to just E of ORH = jackpot 14" - 30"

Ct Valley = 10" - 20" depending on location.

Good night and good luck everyone.

[HM]

Anyone know if that stuff in CT is reaching the ground, particularly in Litchfield? The echoes over NE PA are certainly reaching the ground.

[metagraphica]

Anyone know if that stuff in CT is reaching the ground, particularly in Litchfield? The echoes over NE PA are certainly reaching the ground.

Nothing here in Salem yet.

[SouthCoastMA]

6z NAM gives SE mass a little more hope for less mixing, but its probably nowcast time anyway.

3 straight runs of the NAM that nudge is slightly further to the east, if you compare 24hrs, 30hrs, 36hrs, on the 6z, 0z, and 18z, respectively. Although, the 12z was more in line with the 6z.

Edit; Hour 30 on the 6z looks further west and the SLP appears to be pushing due north and may clip the cape.

[free_man]

...ERN U.S...

MOST GUID HAS NOW COME INTO GNRL AGREEMENT WITH THE

EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP ERN U.S. TROF/VORTEX AND ASSOCD

CSTL SFC LOW. SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SERN GA CST AT 06Z IS A LITTLE

STGR THAN MDLS FCST...BUT ALSO E OF FCST PSTNS...WHICH FITS NICELY

INTO THE LATEST SUITE OF GUID THAT IS LIFTG THE SFC LOW RPDLY NWD

TO NEAR ACK BY MON MRNG. OVERALL PCPN FCSTS ARE SHOWG A STG TREND

TWD CUTTING BACK AMTS FM THE MID ATLC SWD...WHILE KEEPING THE VRY

HVY LIQ AMTS OVR SERN NEW ENG. VRY STG SHRTWV DIGG INTO THE SERN

U.S. WL QUICKLY TURN THE CORNER AND LIFT NWD THIS MRNG/AFTN WITH

IMPRVS UPR LVL DVRG/DIFL AT THE NOSE OF THE ASSOCD UPR JET STEAK.

RESULTANT DEEP LYRD ASCENT WL BE QUITE STG WITH A POTENT LLJ FORMG

AND HELPG TO PULL A TONGUE OF TRPCL MSTR NWD. MDL 8H WNDS ARE FCST

TO 50-70 KTS THAT WL SUPPORT VRY STG MSTR FLUX/WAA INTO THE

REGION. ALTHOU PWS ARE NOT FCST TO GET VRY HI INLAND...AMTS JUST

OFFSHORE ARE FCST TO BUILD TWD 1.25 INCHES...WHICH WL BE 1-2 STDS

ABV NRML. THE 8H V-FLUX ANOMALIES BUILD TO OVR SIX STDS ABV NRML

THAT WL TRANSPORT IMPRVS AMTS OF MSTR INTO SERN NEW ENG. THE PWS

RISE HI ENUF THAT THERE IS A THREAT FOR PCPN TO CHNG OVR TO HVY

RNFL SUN NGT. MANUAL QPF GNRLY FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE A BLEND OF

THE GUID...BUT DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN OVR INTERIOR

SECTIONS OF SRN NEW ENG WHERE UPSLOPE WL HELP TO LCLLY BOOST AMTS.

HVIEST PCPN SHLD BE OVR SERN NEW ENG WHERE AMTS IN EXCESS OF ONE

INCH LIQ WL BE COMMON. LCL AMTS ARND TWO INCHES WL BE

PSBL...ESPCLY NR THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WHERE MSTR FLUX/WAA WL BE

MAXIMIZED. SURROUNDING THE AREA OF HVIEST PCPN...XCPT A BROAD

REGION OF LGT/MOD PCPN OVR THE ERN U.S. THAT SHLD MOSTLY FALL AS

SNOW.

[eekuasepinniW]

...ERN U.S...

MOST GUID HAS NOW COME INTO GNRL AGREEMENT WITH THE

EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP ERN U.S. TROF/VORTEX AND ASSOCD

CSTL SFC LOW. SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SERN GA CST AT 06Z IS A LITTLE

STGR THAN MDLS FCST...BUT ALSO E OF FCST PSTNS...WHICH FITS NICELY

INTO THE LATEST SUITE OF GUID THAT IS LIFTG THE SFC LOW RPDLY NWD

TO NEAR ACK BY MON MRNG. OVERALL PCPN FCSTS ARE SHOWG A STG TREND

TWD CUTTING BACK AMTS FM THE MID ATLC SWD...WHILE KEEPING THE VRY

HVY LIQ AMTS OVR SERN NEW ENG. VRY STG SHRTWV DIGG INTO THE SERN

U.S. WL QUICKLY TURN THE CORNER AND LIFT NWD THIS MRNG/AFTN WITH

IMPRVS UPR LVL DVRG/DIFL AT THE NOSE OF THE ASSOCD UPR JET STEAK.

RESULTANT DEEP LYRD ASCENT WL BE QUITE STG WITH A POTENT LLJ FORMG

AND HELPG TO PULL A TONGUE OF TRPCL MSTR NWD. MDL 8H WNDS ARE FCST

TO 50-70 KTS THAT WL SUPPORT VRY STG MSTR FLUX/WAA INTO THE

REGION. ALTHOU PWS ARE NOT FCST TO GET VRY HI INLAND...AMTS JUST

OFFSHORE ARE FCST TO BUILD TWD 1.25 INCHES...WHICH WL BE 1-2 STDS

ABV NRML. THE 8H V-FLUX ANOMALIES BUILD TO OVR SIX STDS ABV NRML

THAT WL TRANSPORT IMPRVS AMTS OF MSTR INTO SERN NEW ENG. THE PWS

RISE HI ENUF THAT THERE IS A THREAT FOR PCPN TO CHNG OVR TO HVY

RNFL SUN NGT. MANUAL QPF GNRLY FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE A BLEND OF

THE GUID...BUT DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TERRAIN OVR INTERIOR

SECTIONS OF SRN NEW ENG WHERE UPSLOPE WL HELP TO LCLLY BOOST AMTS.

HVIEST PCPN SHLD BE OVR SERN NEW ENG WHERE AMTS IN EXCESS OF ONE

INCH LIQ WL BE COMMON. LCL AMTS ARND TWO INCHES WL BE

PSBL...ESPCLY NR THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WHERE MSTR FLUX/WAA WL BE

MAXIMIZED. SURROUNDING THE AREA OF HVIEST PCPN...XCPT A BROAD

REGION OF LGT/MOD PCPN OVR THE ERN U.S. THAT SHLD MOSTLY FALL AS

SNOW.

This is cracking me up. They have an abbreviation for "will" and "over" but nothing for "adjustments"

[ski MRG]

I couldn't draw it up better than this; we have a soloution here that embodies every single one of my fetishes.

C'mon, since when do storms wear womens clothing.

[CoastalWx]

There is gonna be some crazy stuff going on late tonight in eastern mass. Models still hitting that narrow area of qpf near the CF. Ray is gonna be naked the whole time.

[jack Suslak]

Snowing already in Lynn and the North Shore of Boston, must be some sort of ocean enhancement. Nice little appetizer for the fun later.

[cpickett79]

Snowing already in Lynn and the North Shore of Boston, must be some sort of ocean enhancement. Nice little appetizer for the fun later.

[free_man]

My wife and I are driving to Raynham and back today Any chance snow holds off until afternoon?

[Damage In Tolland]

Weenies...The good REV has spoken

THIS IS GOING TO BE A HISTORIC

STORM

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice to see a little shift west overnight as the heavy axis shifted west. Hopefully you coastal folks don't get hosed with a changeover

[moneypitmike]

Getting excited.

17.0/11.

[Damage In Tolland]

btw my station is going 12-18 for most of CT with 10-14 for New London and southern Middlesex county. Agree totally with Darren's forecast.

As we thought yesterday 10-18 statewide with lollis to 24

[Damage In Tolland]

Partly cloudy out there with heavy heavy moonage currently as I got back from my run.

This is hard to believe it's real. I feel like I'm dreaming

[MaineJayhawk]

Good morning everybody. And I mean that literally.

[Damage In Tolland]

I love me some Brian Lovern

Maybe not the right thread, but since Don tossed out amounts, I will make a rough guess.. very rough since I'm away on vacation and haven't looked in as much detail as normal, but maybe that actually helps since the models have been all over the place the last few days lol.

Only going to do the major cities though.

RIC: 4-6"

DCA: 1-3"

BWI: 3-5"

PHL: 6-10"

NYC: 12-18"

BDL: (18-24")

BOS: 12-18"

[moneypitmike]

From Albany's AFD:

WE UTILIZED SNOW

RATIOS OF 13-15:1 FOR THE EVENT FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT

NORTH AND WEST. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST WE USED 10-13:1.

I like the sound of their warning more where they just say 1-2'.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well we decided to go ahead with the tubing..Meeting at 9:00 in SW and driving up to Butternut which takes about an hour and 2o..Tube till maybe 12-12:30 and then everyone heads home. That should be enough time for everyone to get home before the heavy HEAVY snow starts

[MaineJayhawk]

Blizzard warnings extend across all zones of coastal New England except for the Cape and islands. Incredible!

[moneypitmike]

Blizzard warnings extend across all zones of coastal New England except for the Cape and islands. Incredible!

Here's a nice depiction. Good luck to everyeone--I suspect it'll be a fun 24 hours!

[moneypitmike]

This is pretty.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

[COPO]

Here's a nice depiction. Good luck to everyeone--I suspect it'll be a fun 24 hours!

Sounds like we are on the cusp of a blizzard warning.. Just need the winds to pick up a little bit more. This is super exciting!!

[MaineJayhawk]

Here's a nice depiction. Good luck to everyeone--I suspect it'll be a fun 24 hours!

The areal coverage of winter storm warnings and blizzard warnings is amazing. ... all of New england except for NW Vermont.

[moneypitmike]

Well we decided to go ahead with the tubing..Meeting at 9:00 in SW and driving up to Butternut which takes about an hour and 2o..Tube till maybe 12-12:30 and then everyone heads home. That should be enough time for everyone to get home before the heavy HEAVY snow starts

Enjoy.

I think it's going to start just late enought that my in-laws still drive out here and then get snowed in. God help me.