snowNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The Canadians like this further east...both GEM models are pretty far on the eastern side of the envelope. I'm riding the GFS for this one... it nailed this 100 hours out.. why not stick with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM has 1.7" IMBY.....about 20" of snow: http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_KBED.txt Have fun Ray! This is what we live for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 TWo different and unrelated concerns have me uncertain: 1. GFS/NAM stop moving at all and we have mixing. Probably more than modeled, dry slot issues probably more than modeled. If this is apparent early AM I will cut totals Bos PVD SE. 2. IMO the 5h is going to jump 3-5 hours earlier than modeled. The low will also occlude faster. has the potential to really screw some on thw W NW fringe areas I did not label 3. If there is a trend east and if #2happens totals will need to be dramatically incease in EMA as 2' would be a common measurement. Fact is we have no way of knowing yet but we will soon - within 6-8 hours. I don't know how much the NAM/GFS are realistically going to move in the next 24 hours...maybe a slight 15 mile trend either way, but I don't think that matters too much unless you're right on the edge of the mixing line. I think this is pretty much locked down. As far as occluding faster, that's obviously something we'll have to watch, but I'm not worried about it really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm riding the GFS for this one... it nailed this 100 hours out.. why not stick with it? The path from 100 hours out or the path in the 18Z or the path in the 12Z? Pick one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 Have fun Ray! This is what we live for! Thanks, Andy! Given the ENSO state and strength, I'm sure that you'll be rejoicing, while I hope for a decent front ender before pining in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I don't know how much the NAM/GFS are realistically going to move in the next 24 hours...maybe a slight 15 mile trend either way, but I don't think that matters too much unless you're right on the edge of the mixing line. I think this is pretty much locked down. Just my opinion, wide open until we have a low to track and see what the deal is with strength/dryslot etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah, good. Final call IMBY: 12-20'' I agree. I say 15-20" for all of the Merrimack Valley, ASH, MHT, LWM, thru ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 I don't know how much the NAM/GFS are realistically going to move in the next 24 hours...maybe a slight 15 mile trend either way, but I don't think that matters too much unless you're right on the edge of the mixing line. I think this is pretty much locked down. As far as occluding faster, that's obviously something we'll have to watch, but I'm not worried about it really. You shouldn't worry about it because you aren't on the n or w fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 I agree. I say 15-20" for all of the Merrimack Valley, ASH, MHT, LWM, thru ORH Yea....I went 15-25"......I think the cf is gonna be really kind to someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 BOX just tweaked its snow forecast map ever so slightly. It now has Martha's Vineyard going from .4 inches of snow to .6 inches of snow. It has New Bedford at 13 inches. This is a very sharp gradient over such a small distance. We'll see how it pans out. The biggest cliffhanger with this storm is the rain/snow line south of Brockton/Taunton/PVD and the pros on this site haven't been addressing this issue all that much today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yea....I went 15-25"......I think the cf is gonna be really kind to someone. The temps are going to be really cold tomorrow night. NWS has MHT at a low of 23? Thats great for ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yea....I went 15-25"......I think the cf is gonna be really kind to someone. Yeah I agree...local amounts to 2 feet are a definite possiblility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 WRT GFS: I know I probably beat these to death but I find insite in these little numbers....the MAV snow numbers. The Cape's are paltry....while BID is 4 plus 1 in the last period (nearly universal in the region in the last period..). Newport RI up to PYM...6 plus 1. PVD-BOS north and west, 8 plus 1. It seems to me that the model wants to mix up to PYM for awhile with worse tainting as one travels SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You shouldn't worry about it because you aren't on the n or w fringe. Yes, I kind of love where I am for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yes, I kind of love where I am for this one. MHT and ASH will find a way to get screwed.. we always do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I am feeling good b/c there is a 99.999999% chance I am getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think we need to wait to nail down the rain/snow line. In my experience, you almost have to wait until the line forms and then see how it starts pushing one way or another. If you see it jog violently to the northwest then watch out it could go far before stopping but if it only kind of wobbles a bit then it usually stays that way. There's really not hard core meteorology behind it, it just depends on how well you can nowcast it. My best guess is that it sets up near Plymouth, MA and arcs north and east towards hingham but that should be it. BOX just tweaked its snow forecast map ever so slightly. It now has Martha's Vineyard going from .4 inches of snow to .6 inches of snow. It has New Bedford at 13 inches. This is a very sharp gradient over such a small distance. We'll see how it pans out. The biggest cliffhanger with this storm is the rain/snow line south of Brockton/Taunton/PVD and the pros on this site haven't been addressing this issue all that much today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 MHT and ASH will find a way to get screwed.. we always do But seriously, I don't see why, there's nothing wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 BOX just tweaked its snow forecast map ever so slightly. It now has Martha's Vineyard going from .4 inches of snow to .6 inches of snow. It has New Bedford at 13 inches. This is a very sharp gradient over such a small distance. We'll see how it pans out. The biggest cliffhanger with this storm is the rain/snow line south of Brockton/Taunton/PVD and the pros on this site haven't been addressing this issue all that much today. Do you have the link> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think we need to wait to nail down the rain/snow line. In my experience, you almost have to wait until the line forms and then see how it starts pushing one way or another. If you see it jog violently to the northwest then watch out it could go far before stopping but if it only kind of wobbles a bit then it usually stays that way. There's really not hard core meteorology behind it, it just depends on how well you can nowcast it. My best guess is that it sets up near Plymouth, MA and arcs north and east towards hingham but that should be it. I am not convinced those areas go all the way over. I'll give you a mix at times but event that's not certain and plain rain seems unlikely to me for PYM/Hingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 But seriously, I don't see why, there's nothing wrong. Oh GOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Do you have the link> http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 btw my station is going 12-18 for most of CT with 10-14 for New London and southern Middlesex county. Agree totally with Darren's forecast. sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 what time do u think it will start in ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 http://www.erh.noaa....StormTotalSnow/ Jesus, they've got a 17 up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Storm Total Snow Forecast Note: The map below displays the expected average accumulation. Some locations will receive less snow, while others will receive more. Graphic last modified: Saturday, 25th December, 2010 @ 11:18PM WWUS41 KBOX 260401WSWBOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well bed time now....gotta sleep good tonight...not sure how much will be possible tomorrow night. In Jan 2005 I stayed up to 1, get up at 7. Lots of heavy snow/wind before 1 and after 7 but missing 6 hours is tough...but in long duration events necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 http://www.erh.noaa....StormTotalSnow/ If it played out exactly as they think they'd be wrong in EPYM. We'd be the same as Otis. Always happens that way. Will change ten more times though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well bed time now....gotta sleep good tonight...not sure how much will be possible tomorrow night. In Jan 2005 I stayed up to 1, get up at 7. Lots of heavy snow/wind before 1 and after 7 but missing 6 hours is tough...but in long duration events necessary. I'm staying up for the Euro tonight. First time in a looong time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think the only negative with respect to this situation is that the Pats are in Buffalo and not home tmw night.....could you imagine if they were home on SNF....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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