40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 But apparently it does....because his own snow map has BOS on the line between 8-12 and 12-20 and every point outside of the city to the W is 12-20. If it truely did, then it would have had Boston at 1', not 7"....NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Harv back on...stated he estimates a foot BOS-PVD, more a bit west, less SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hey guys.... I've had a lot of wine but am really excited about things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This is one of the few storms I've seen the NWS really rise above and beyond other local mets in analyze models, rather than a mere rip and read. BOX has been firm in only allowing a mix into far SE sections, really putting RI/E MA in the max while most local mets have been leery pushing R/S back towards I-95. Think it's pretty safe to say who wins out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hey guys.... I've had a lot of wine but am really excited about things. Join the club..lol. GEM looks like it likes the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hey guys.... I've had a lot of wine but am really excited about things. Such a goober Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Totals for those still up? Would love to see the 6z sitrep but: Boston 8-16. Providence 8-16, ORh Hartford 7-14. Taunton 495/24 7-14, Plymouth around exit 3 rte 3 6-12 Sagamore Bridge 5-10 Norwood-Stoughton-Canton-Easton type circle and a similar type arc up to 495, Ray etc, down into N RI, 9-18" Confidence about 50% of normal. I really worry this situation is so dynamic we aren't going to know until Sunday about 3pm. Note above, banding could plus/minus 6-8" if someone ends up on the -VV side or positive. I'm still on the light side QPF wise in SE MA. Worry 25% about mixing. Without mixing which could in the wrong circumstance occur back to Norwood it's easily a 1-2+ I have no concerns about QPF to produce a 1 boston providence plymouth NW. West of there to WIll, Kev, etc I really worry about a 5h spinup that has a wall of snow moving NW that loses steam as a band forms underneath and SE of it as the 5h goes postal in the new spot. 25% concerned we have no idea of the track - that something bizzare happens and it pinches further SW t NW, or changes so much it pulls a crazy ivan. Most models show it gets so far NW then boom the 5h jumps and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 All in all I think the smidge trend east is continuing as we speak. This so called "east trend" though... 24-36 hours ago this was progged to be further east than current model guidance has it. 48 hours ago this was waaaay east. The overall trend over the past 36-48 hours has been decidedly west. The models did the classic move way west then correct back east some... this shouldn't be all that much of a surprise that things are moving a bit back to the east ever so slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Harv drew the 12" line right down 95 from Bos to PVD, but he did give a caveat this was the most tricky area (understood) and that he seemed to hedge Boston int he 122-20 side. Obviously he has little confidence in this area particularly South and East. In any case it really doesn't matter, but I was a bit surprised he had potential mixing that far north. Maybe he's favoring the track of the new king GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM has 1.7" IMBY.....about 20" of snow: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KBED.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 WXSIM just printed out 23 inches of snow IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hey guys.... I've had a lot of wine but am really excited about things. man i am stuffed and had alot of beer hahaha home now looking out for the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just got home, and saw the 00z models. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Join the club..lol. GEM looks like it likes the BM. The Canadians like this further east...both GEM models are pretty far on the eastern side of the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM prints out 1.44" here...should see higher ratios though than the eastern sections... thinking we see 16-20 inches of powder imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Join the club..lol. GEM looks like it likes the BM. yeah cant really analyze much of anything right now other than do some CT Blizz QPF rip and reads. I love the 700 and 850mb tracks for the CT valley. Haven't been this excited in years (seriously) Working Monday morning but off all day tomorrow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I see messenger is back and back big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM has 1.7" IMBY.....about 20" of snow: http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_KBED.txt Well you got your "warning" criteria.... I assume you're ok with the "b" word before it. Congrats! we deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 btw my station is going 12-18 for most of CT with 10-14 for New London and southern Middlesex county. Agree totally with Darren's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 btw my station is going 12-18 for most of CT with 10-14 for New London and southern Middlesex county. Agree totally with Darren's forecast. I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 btw my station is going 12-18 for most of CT with 10-14 for New London and southern Middlesex county. Agree totally with the Reverend's forecast. Praise the Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just got home, and saw the 00z models. Looking good. Looking good for your 2" , you're not alone, mine is probably 1.5 hehe. Nice to see the models trend north into God's country. Hopefully your seasonal total will be 2something come Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Ensembles look like they are still over the elbow of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hey guys.... I've had a lot of wine but am really excited about things. And I'll admit I had a choice of ambien or gray goose to knock myself out after a harrowing day and went with 5mg of ambien at 1120. I already feel a bit buzzed, so if I report unicorns falling from the sky soon you'll know why. Figure there's no good being so tired I fall asleep at 5pm Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 That Long-term AFD by BOX is the BEST most exciting AFD I have read since Feb of 2006...just incredible. I saved it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Ensembles look like they are still over the elbow of the Cape. Like this. (sorry) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Like this. (sorry) Yeah, good. Final call IMBY: 12-20'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Ok, check this out. The Dec 21 0z run of the GFS showing the snowstorm and heck the track is pretty damn close to what it has now!!! I am so happy I saved this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I see messenger is back and back big. TWo different and unrelated concerns have me uncertain: 1. GFS/NAM stop moving at all and we have mixing. Probably more than modeled, dry slot issues probably more than modeled. If this is apparent early AM I will cut totals Bos PVD SE. 2. IMO the 5h is going to jump 3-5 hours earlier than modeled. The low will also occlude faster. has the potential to really screw some on thw W NW fringe areas I did not label 3. If there is a trend east and if #2happens totals will need to be dramatically incease in EMA as 2' would be a common measurement. Fact is we have no way of knowing yet but we will soon - within 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah, good. Final call IMBY: 12-20'' I'm going for a narrower range, because that's how I roll. 10-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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