Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Crazy uncle has 970mb over ACK. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm not overly concerned for up here. I think I'll make out relatively well...especially compared to expectations. I'"think" you're not too far from Ragged Mountain. How do you think they'll make out? Wondering what localized efffects they may expect. elevation is basically 1000' base to 2000' peak with a north exposure. I was hoping for a foot but NWS is only showing abotu 6-10. I thinkthat's low, but really don;t know if there may be some downsloping issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 I didnt get this into the earlier post. Notice the pivot point on the QPF...it went way NE again. Now it's in VT. Note what happened again to the SW of that point. From EVA up to Albany the .5 line edged east and the QPF bomb over NJ diminished some. It's going to dampen out it can only fail/make changes so much in tight, but I think it has one good move similar to this one in it. That would put it left of the RGEM probably, but east of this current american guidance. The 5h should absolutely jump east quicker than modeled. At the same point in time tonight it's stronger and a smidge NE. I think it ends up stronger even earlier just looking at the surface low, water vapor, RUC etc. The pivot point on the GFS is partly a reflection - a rudiementary one, of where the new 5h is taking over and starting everything on the new trajectory. one more shift like tonight and it should help in two ways - by cutting the N movement off sooner it also increases the chances the dryslot never touches land. Let's eee, nowcast time. All models show it's rumble in the jungle time, the s/w's and the trough itself are about to go bezerk. Scott, you've put together some awesome posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Harvey's calling for 4-8 along the RI/Massachusetts border along the South Coast while Pete Bouchard is calling for 14-20. ABC 6 Providence says 5-10 in this corridor. Just about everyone's saying 4 or less on the Cape. In all the years I've been following weather I've never seen a gradient materialize as sharp as this within 40 miles along the South Coast. There's absolutely zero chance Newport gets 14 inches while Hyannis only gets a couple inches. But I guess it's fun for these guys to play around with the accumulation maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wow again. Blizzard warnings to my N, S, and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Cape Cod and the Islands and maybe 5-10 miles inland at most from say Duxbury around the South Coast into RI. So you don't think that you in Taunton and me in Brockton will have to deal with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I didnt get this into the earlier post. Notice the pivot point on the QPF...it went way NE again. Now it's in VT. Note what happened again to the SW of that point. From EVA up to Albany the .5 line edged east and the QPF bomb over NJ diminished some. It's going to dampen out it can only fail/make changes so much in tight, but I think it has one good move similar to this one in it. That would put it left of the RGEM probably, but east of this current american guidance. The 5h should absolutely jump east quicker than modeled. At the same point in time tonight it's stronger and a smidge NE. I think it ends up stronger even earlier just looking at the surface low, water vapor, RUC etc. The pivot point on the GFS is partly a reflection - a rudiementary one, of where the new 5h is taking over and starting everything on the new trajectory. one more shift like tonight and it should help in two ways - by cutting the N movement off sooner it also increases the chances the dryslot never touches land. Let's eee, nowcast time. All models show it's rumble in the jungle time, the s/w's and the trough itself are about to go bezerk. I agree, the s/w s are about to go kaboom, for lack of a better word, Amazing look to the water vapor imagery, I still believe the Cape even Outer Cape, maybe not Nantucket can see 6"+ at least from just the front end snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah, I like the idea of BOX's snowfall may but rotate everything SE about 15-20 miles. I think the Rt 24 corridor will take a wallop. 1 arm typing ruc good all day 5h. continues to point east at 5h stronger nose little east . what becomes our 5h now on la/fl coast (corrected) http://www.rap.ucar....e=-1&duration=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 So you don't think that you in Taunton and me in Brockton will have to deal with it? No, I think Brockton is in a sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah, everyone but my region has a blizzard warning in effect. I still only have a winter storm watch, although I have a high wind warning and coastal flood watch in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Harvey Leonard calling for sig mixing all the up to Boston and I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Harv just stated that he thinks Boston will stay mostly snow...right on the line between 12-20 and 8-12. I think I'm in the 12-20 line and frankly I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Harvey Leonard calling for sig mixing all the up to Boston and I-95. He stated he feels Boston will not go over but just SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 Harv is hedging west.....gave ORH just over 2'.....Bosxton just over 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 He stated he feels Boston will not go over but just SE. The scrooge in me is coming out and it's pretty hard to suppress it when the mixing line gets so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Harv is hedging west.....gave ORH just over 2'.....Bosxton just over 7". What's up with that and then he draws us in the 12-20 range? I think that is some automated tool he uses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Harv is hedging west.....gave ORH just over 2'.....Bosxton just over 7". Me thinks he busts. Just my humble opinion. Off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 21z SREF QPF... still a pretty decent number of members hammering QPF back west. Over 1" QPF all the way back to the western Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It's interesting because Harv used to love the RGEM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Harv is hedging west.....gave ORH just over 2'.....Bosxton just over 7". Thats not his forecats. THats the futurecast model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 Me thinks he busts. Just my humble opinion. Off to bed. He did state that a light jog east is possible and would make a big diff.....I thought of Messenger when he said that. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 No, I think Brockton is in a sweet spot. I'm learning. Mind sharing your reasons for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 Thats not his forecats. THats the futurecast model Well, Boston prob a 1', then. Not sure why he'd show an in-house model that conflicts with his personal stance a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 What's up with that and then he draws us in the 12-20 range? I think that is some automated tool he uses? Yeah...at the beginning of the broadcast, he said this is just what ONE model is showing. Wasn't endorsing it by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well, Boston prob a 1', then. Not sure why he'd show an in-house model that conflicts with his personal stance a bit. But apparently it does....because his own snow map has BOS on the line between 8-12 and 12-20 and every point outside of the city to the W is 12-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 OT but my wife tells me snow is pretty deep in Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NECN map ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well, Boston prob a 1', then. Not sure why he'd show an in-house model that conflicts with his personal stance a bit. I think tomorrow the mets will tweak the numbers a bit. I'm thinking areas in EMA get bumped up as we realize mixing stays further S&E. (current trends support this) Then again, maybe that is wishful thinking on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just incredible VV's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well, Boston prob a 1', then. Not sure why he'd show an in-house model that conflicts with his personal stance a bit. May not have a ton of help tonight with the graphics. I'm stuck watching grinch with a sick kid for the 1701st time this holiday season, but it sounds like he used the stations model thingie. All models show the GA FL coast system getting ripped up. Kind of weird but it gets crushed which is why you see the storms died. What that piece does though is slightly lower heights. Looks like a smidge more digging on the main show hitting the GOM now. At the same time the ridge appears to be pinching east which has been a consistent trend along the Canadian border. All in all I think the smidge trend east is continuing as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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