Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like PVD manages to be the pivot point on the 00z GFS for the dryslot, getting into SRI and then working ENE up towards BOS. Would be sweet. GFS is a front end thump and a half. PVD already has over 1.5" before the dryslot approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 Can't argue with that. I threw out 16-24 for mby. What do you think the ratios will be? Roughly 12:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 For Keene, I feel decent for around 1" of QPF Brian, NAM pulled the same trick on me. The widespread 1.5"+ has gotten engrained in my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 What do you think of thundersnow? It is nice and not overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 For Keene, I feel decent for around 1" of QPF Brian, NAM pulled the same trick on me. The widespread 1.5"+ has gotten engrained in my head Maybe we can get helped by good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like I'm stuck in Boston for this one. I wonder when I'll be able to get out of here though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Ok....now I REALLY am going to walk the dog!.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm not too sold on the GFS amounts and coverage though. Looks a little suspect. Normally I would be as well but the models keep on insisting this is going to happen and have even trended wetter overall...just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 so does it look like hartford down to new haven can get into the deformation zone now ,earlier it was over or near the wester ct/nyc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 00z GFS looked like basically a step towards the NAM. They seem to have been converging all day long. Hopefully not much more eastward trend. I can't see much more considering the robustness of the set up on WV right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 And has been dropping further south each run...... Have you locked anything yet? I'm thinking 10-14 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Harvey thinking more mixing... basically Boston South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS initialized 4mb weaker with the initial surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Awesome! Southborough is my hometown and I will be visiting my parents there this upcoming Friday... I hope there'll be enough snow left over and uncompacted! Should we start a pool on who you think (town/city wise) will get jackpotted? I'm thinking someplace around Southboro, MA... 22".. maybe Framingham - cpick's storm Hoping it is Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It is nice and not overrated. I meant thoughts on the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 WV looks amazing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I don't think Boston or Providence is going to get dry-sloted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 i think this is it. i think this is the one. enjoy cracking 2 feet. good luck on making history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 So as far as thunder snow goes - any idea where it could set up or there is really no way to tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 So where do you guys expect the rain/snow line to set up? or its furthest advance inland? and reasons for it please. Cape Cod and the Islands and maybe 5-10 miles inland at most from say Duxbury around the South Coast into RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Should we start a pool on who you think (town/city wise) will get jackpotted? I'm thinking someplace around Southboro, MA... 22".. maybe Framingham - cpick's storm Hoping it is Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You think if that trend plays out, SNH and ME could get relatively screwed.... I'm not overly concerned for up here. I think I'll make out relatively well...especially compared to expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 So as far as thunder snow goes - any idea where it could set up or there is really no way to tell? Well wherever the CCB sets up is your most likely location for thunder, although thunder is certainly possible in embedded heavier snowfall echos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It can be 35-36F and it will still be thumping snow. I am not worried at all. I didnt get this into the earlier post. Notice the pivot point on the QPF...it went way NE again. Now it's in VT. Note what happened again to the SW of that point. From EVA up to Albany the .5 line edged east and the QPF bomb over NJ diminished some. It's going to dampen out it can only fail/make changes so much in tight, but I think it has one good move similar to this one in it. That would put it left of the RGEM probably, but east of this current american guidance. The 5h should absolutely jump east quicker than modeled. At the same point in time tonight it's stronger and a smidge NE. I think it ends up stronger even earlier just looking at the surface low, water vapor, RUC etc. The pivot point on the GFS is partly a reflection - a rudiementary one, of where the new 5h is taking over and starting everything on the new trajectory. one more shift like tonight and it should help in two ways - by cutting the N movement off sooner it also increases the chances the dryslot never touches land. Let's eee, nowcast time. All models show it's rumble in the jungle time, the s/w's and the trough itself are about to go bezerk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Harvey thinking more mixing... basically Boston South I refuse to believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Alright I'm out - you guys have a good night! Here's to a phenomenal next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Have you locked anything yet? I'm thinking 10-14 here. I was thinking 10-15" here, But i keep seeing the qpf getting cut back each run......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think you are in awesome shape for a couple of reasons: 1. I think there's a very good shot the 5h is going to take over hours earlier. Soon as that happens north progression stops. 2. I think the RGEM has the better idea and the american models are still choking for whatever reason. Yeah, I like the idea of BOX's snowfall may but rotate everything SE about 15-20 miles. I think the Rt 24 corridor will take a wallop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Roughly 12:1. That sounds fair for your neck of the woods... given modeled temps on the WRF and GFS though, I'd be hard pressed to expect much more than a 10:1 paste for I-95 and SE (maybe even 8:1 for those that get to 32-36F). Hard to get higher than 8-10:1 when its 32F or a shade above. The ratios may make up for the lack of QPF further west though...west slopes of the Berks back into eastern NY get a 16-18F powder storm, lots of blowing and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Crazy uncle has 970mb over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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