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XMAS Miracle: Blizzard of 2010 Lead-in Dialogue

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

You mean not until the 12z runs?

No last nights 0z.

But I believe there is some degree of continuity in the models. IE, smoothing. I am not sure will be something to read later.

--

RUC - slam it, love it, whatever. It was outstanding for 2 days at 5h but this is usually when it craps out on the coast. That said it continues to really mix it up. What looks like a decent trend in terms of strength/west initially is deceiving as it's not slowing the same amount aloft so the window closes some as it only has so much time to get north before the turn. It's outside of it's range though beyond 6h verification assistance so this will be a test. Not a forecast!

The major change on the 0z NAM was pretty clear. The s/w shot out from under the trough. It was stronger than modeled but didn't slow. Just enough along with some other very minor details to nudge it east later. But the strength mostly offset that south and the entire system is ready to bomb.

It's a toss up. For the first time in 10 years I feel we have a true nowcast, seat of the pants forecast situation. I don't care if I get no inches here, I'm loving every minute of it.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

21" per the NAM!

 Station ID: KTAN Lat:   41.87 Long:  -71.02                                                        
NAM Model Run:  0Z 26DEC 2010
 HR Valid 	2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in. 	Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM

 15 12/26 15Z   35 	33      51   	8    0.01  0.00    531    541   -6.6 -23.1 1013 100 -SN   001OVC324    0.2   11.2
 18 12/26 18Z   33 	32      41      13    0.07  0.00    534    541   -5.9 -22.5 1009 100 -SN   000OVC269    0.8    3.0
 21 12/26 21Z   32 	32      42      16    0.20  0.00    536    540   -5.6 -19.6 1005 100 SN    001OVC181    2.0    0.4
 24 12/27 00Z   32 	31      32      25    0.24  0.00    539    537   -5.1 -19.6  997 100 SN   	OVC208    2.5    0.2
 27 12/27 03Z   32 	31      29      27    0.48  0.00    539    533   -5.1 -20.3  991 100 SN   	OVC098    4.7    0.4
 30 12/27 06Z   33 	32      22      27    0.31  0.00    539    524   -2.3 -24.3  982 100 SN    001OVC182    3.1    0.6
 33 12/27 09Z   33 	33      10      24    0.34  0.00    535    514   -1.6 -25.0  974 100 SN   	OVC132    3.6    0.8
 36 12/27 12Z   31 	30 	347      26    0.23  0.00    533    511   -3.7 -24.9  972 100 SN   	OVC093    2.3    0.1
 39 12/27 15Z   30 	29 	328      23    0.11  0.00    531    511   -7.3 -26.0  975 100 -SN      OVC132    1.1    0.6
 42 12/27 18Z   27 	25 	315      22    0.08  0.00    528    511   -9.4 -26.9  979 100 -SN      OVC158    0.7    1.2

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

Andy--are you bullish on west? Seems like a lot of folks are seeing east. I just got in from 8 hours away, so tough to keep up.

Bullish I wouldn't say that I am but I see W and/or NW as have a fairly good probability off occuring and I think its a higher percentage than winding up east. I'm looking at the 250 SD wind anomalies and I see NE winds near -2 SD departures very early Monday sliding across NY/NE. -2.5 is the critical value (-2.5 or lower) on winds with an E'ly component for a long duration storm. Close but not close enough, should still slow and with RI probably also see some jog towards the W or NW as sfc LP becomes captured by the C/O aloft.

This has become a free-for-all...and the mind will see what it wants. Those out east want to see east, those of us in the west want to see west....

Its every man for himself now, lol.

I just feel the quicker this bombs and the deeper it bombs and wraps up, it will pull 'er closer to the coast. Weaker is definitely going east.

I agree. I just don't see weaker solution though. This system will dig a hole in the atmosphere once it gets over and north of the Gulfstream.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

I grew up in Brooklyn, and remember a lot of p-type issues when storms get really wound up. Doesn't look likely for this one though. How long is the drive to the 'rents?

2 hrs 45.min

We've lived in Brooklyn for about 5 years, and so far we haven't had storms with too many p type issues, at least issues that weren't already giving most of us in NE ct a change over problem. I'm closer to Pomfret, but even the southern part of town, closer to plainfield is in a different micro climate than us, and they do seem to get less accumulation.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

No last nights 0z.

But I believe there is some degree of continuity in the models. IE, smoothing. I am not sure will be something to read later.

--

RUC - slam it, love it, whatever. It was outstanding for 2 days at 5h but this is usually when it craps out on the coast. That said it continues to really mix it up. What looks like a decent trend in terms of strength/west initially is deceiving as it's not slowing the same amount aloft so the window closes some as it only has so much time to get north before the turn. It's outside of it's range though beyond 6h verification assistance so this will be a test. Not a forecast!

The major change on the 0z NAM was pretty clear. The s/w shot out from under the trough. It was stronger than modeled but didn't slow. Just enough along with some other very minor details to nudge it east later. But the strength mostly offset that south and the entire system is ready to bomb.

It's a toss up. For the first time in 10 years I feel we have a true nowcast, seat of the pants forecast situation. I don't care if I get no inches here, I'm loving every minute of it.

If we get no inches anywhere I will REALLY be upset.

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

Final call: 15-25" for our bys.

I expect this to rank at least #3 for me when all is said and done, with a shot at unseating Dec 1992 for #2.

April '97 is hallowed ground; unlikely.

Enjoy it Ray...don't really know you, but you had a rough beginning of the year, but now things are looking up (job prospects, improved health etc)...let's end this year with a bang.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Enjoy it Ray...don't really know you, but you had a rough beginning of the year, but now things are looking up (job prospects, improved health etc)...let's end this year with a bang.

Ha....hernia reaggrevated with a vengence....I'm wearing a girdle.....gonna need to get cut again, but that is for another time.

I'll do anything I can to hold my intestines within my abdominal wall for a few more days; 2010 won't rob me of this.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Ha....hernia reaggrevated with a vengence....I'm wearing a girdle.....gonna need to get cut again, but that is for another time.

I'll do anything I can to hold my intestines within my abdominal wall for a few more days; 2010 won't rob me of this.

Your hernia, my wife's uncle....they're doing anything to screw this up for us.........but you'll be better....and uncle is probably looking down and saying...enjoy the snow...I'm already gone....

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Last run I watch unfold. Then it's all about watching this beast evolve on the WV tomorrow AM!

I hate saying it out loud because it's tough to call the models but I'd agree with Weathefella this should lead to an east shift.

But it can be a curveball and change that.

This kind of smells of either a data error or a correction. The GFS never changes this much at 5h.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

GFS is wrapping up a bit later allowing more eastward progress. Looking better each run and no one will be screwed (maybe outside outer cape/islands)

Would 2-3 hours of rain along with 16" of snow really be "screwed?" Even if you guys mixed or changed to liquid at 34F it would still be one of the biggest storms in years.

And folks out west are getting screwed Jerry! haha

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