XMAS Miracle: Blizzard of 2010 Lead-in Dialogue

[Wx4cast]

Way too weak at the sfc I think.

[weathafella]

2mb weaker a few ticks NNE from the 12z at the same time. This is notable because it's considerably weaker when you consider N/S position points. It was winding up like a horse at 12z as it gained North, so not only did it sneak a little east of north but it came in weaker which should mean it's east as Will said.

The trend makes sense.

And ultimately mitigates our dryslotting issues somewhat and any ptype concerns.

[weathafella]

Way too weak at the sfc I think.

One would think with that H5 config...

[moneypitmike]

Way too weak at the sfc I think.

Andy--are you bullish on west? Seems like a lot of folks are seeing east. I just got in from 8 hours away, so tough to keep up.

[weathafella]

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Way too weak at the sfc I think.

It's 970mb at 36hrs, that's 8mb stronger than 1978!

[CoastalWx]

RGEM looks like over the BM..or at least close to it.

[Baroclinic Zone]

It's 970mb at 36hrs, that's 8mb stronger than 1978!

It ends up in the same location compared to 12z just 3mb weaker.

[SC48]

The RGEM model looks fine from here. Looks like one hell of a hit still.

[moneypitmike]

The RGM model looks fine from here. Looks like one hell of a hit still.

Where are you?

[dendrite]

It ends up in the same location compared to 12z just 3mb weaker.

I noticed that. To the same exact pixel. lol

[powderfreak]

Noon

RUC has been pegging a 9-10am lower CT (Foxwoods) start time and 11am up near Pike.

[SC48]

South Wilmington, Mass.

[mahk_webstah]

It's probably a little high up here and low for E MA. Banding will be key for the interior. I don't need even close to a jackpot, but I hope I rock in at least a couple of hours of 1/4SM +SN.

and I hope that happens in the morning when it is daylight.

[powderfreak]

I noticed that. To the same exact pixel. lol

I never really look at that model at all.... is it worth it?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I noticed that. To the same exact pixel. lol

What does it tell you when the 3 models that were singled out as having some type of "issue" continue to bounce all over, faster, slower, east, west, north, south and the few that wandered west without mention can be on the same pixel 12 hours later?

If the three amigos ended up being too far west and we are closer to the RGEM track the post-mortem on what happened the last few days will be interesting. What nobody really seems to be able to explain is how much continuity is there run to run. I'm told errors SHOULD dampen out the next major run with new RAOBs but I do not think they are absolutely absolved.

[ORH_wxman]

I never really look at that model at all.... is it worth it?

I like to look at it to see if it agrees with the NAM...usually when they agree, they are a decent combo. But this storm has been wreaking havoc on the models. So its very hard to know which models to trust.

[weathafella]

and I hope that happens in the morning when it is daylight.

I strongly agree. That's the one thing.....the meatiest part of this storm will be when it's dark.

[powderfreak]

Andy--are you bullish on west? Seems like a lot of folks are seeing east. I just got in from 8 hours away, so tough to keep up.

This has become a free-for-all...and the mind will see what it wants. Those out east want to see east, those of us in the west want to see west....

Its every man for himself now, lol.

I just feel the quicker this bombs and the deeper it bombs and wraps up, it will pull 'er closer to the coast. Weaker is definitely going east.

[moneypitmike]

What does it tell you when the 3 models that were singled out as having some type of "issue" continue to bounce all over, faster, slower, east, west, north, south and the few that wandered west without mention can be on the same pixel 12 hours later?

If the three amigos ended up being too far west and we are closer to the RGEM track the post-mortem on what happened the last few days will be interesting. What nobody really seems to be able to explain is how much continuity is there run to run. I'm told errors SHOULD dampen out the next major run with new RAOBs but I do not think they are absolutely absolved.

You mean not until the 12z runs?

[WinterLand]

I strongly agree. That's the one thing.....the meatiest part of this storm will be when it's dark.

Sort of like Jan 2005.

[Chrisrotary12]

Brian, NCEP's is a bit different.

Think I get jackpotted with this one. lol. will never happen.

[NorEastermass128]

I strongly agree. That's the one thing.....the meatiest part of this storm will be when it's dark.

That's kinda cool....power will be flickering and you'll hear it out there. I can't wait!

EDIT: Except if we do lose power, it's only fun for about 10 mins before you realize you can't do anything.

[HinghamBoss]

Just back from a day of Christmas festivities. This whole turn of events is eerily similar to the April Fools Blizzard in that everyone went off to their holiday plans with some idea of some sort of storm, but not really thinking much of it. All of a sudden, the holiday ends and BAM! I think people were just realizing what this is potentially going to be early this evening.

This ought to be fun...first storm living in actual metro Boston.

Jerry - I wonder which side of the Charles will win the snow race! I'd have to think we end up somewhere in the 12-14" range.

[Baroclinic Zone]

You mean not until the 12z runs?

Yeah, when the snow flies.

[moneypitmike]

This has become a free-for-all...and the mind will see what it wants. Those out east want to see east, those of us in the west want to see west....

Its every man for himself now, lol.

I just feel the quicker this bombs and the deeper it bombs and wraps up, it will pull 'er closer to the coast. Weaker is definitely going east.

Lol. In that case, I put myself in the west camp. But, fun times for all it look slike.

[weathafella]

Back for the GFS...now I'm really taking the dog out.....see you all in 1-2 hours.

[New England Storm]

Good luck guys in the centeral mass you could get 20 inches, WOW sne, looks like we would be lucky to get 8 inches but, we will have a lot wind to deal with

[NorEastermass128]

Just back from a day of Christmas festivities. This whole turn of events is eerily similar to the April Fools Blizzard in that everyone went off to their holiday plans with some idea of some sort of storm, but not really thinking much of it. All of a sudden, the holiday ends and BAM! I think people were just realizing what this is potentially going to be early this evening.

This ought to be fun...first storm living in actual metro Boston.

Jerry - I wonder which side of the Charles will win the snow race! I'd have to think we end up somewhere in the 12-14" range.

Potentially much more. I'd peg BOS at 16-18" right now.

[weathafella]

Just back from a day of Christmas festivities. This whole turn of events is eerily similar to the April Fools Blizzard in that everyone went off to their holiday plans with some idea of some sort of storm, but not really thinking much of it. All of a sudden, the holiday ends and BAM! I think people were just realizing what this is potentially going to be early this evening.

This ought to be fun...first storm living in actual metro Boston.

Jerry - I wonder which side of the Charles will win the snow race! I'd have to think we end up somewhere in the 12-14" range.

Hi Jason...hope you had a nice Christmas. I think 12-14 should be not too hard to attain with this system believe it or not. But I wouldn't forecast more at this point either.