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XMAS Miracle: Blizzard of 2010 Lead-in Dialogue

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
Posted

I would rather you get the blizzard, with less wind, more snow out here...

Anyway, good luck down there. It is going to be a doozy for you. Please no rain for you...

Thanks.

It's James right? Listen, I can hear the your anguish in this post. All of us can relate. You win some,you lose some. You are young and you'll see many more CC specials. Chin up.

Yeah I understand, but I am going to start my USAF career in about 2 weeks, going to San Antonio, TX on the 11th and I don't have much time to experience another amazing nor'easter, like this one is coming along. So I am disappointed and will be surprised if I get more than 6" of sloppy snow.

Hey sometimes these storms surprise and the snow hangs on longer than anticipated. Just keep looking for any signs that the storm will end up further southeast. Even 30-40 miles could make a huge difference. This is what makes nowcasting so interesting...just keep your expectations in check and hope for a nice surprise.

I agree, it makes now casting very interesting.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Pete, I have no idea and will defer to a Met. I'll try to go look up a website...TBC

The waves propagates and dampens as it expands outward...so you get alternating areas of rising and then sinking air. I'm not an expert on sniffing them out either, but I'm not a huge fan of them. I always feel like they turn the steady heavy precip bands more showery in nature. Maybe I've just had bad experiences with them. :)
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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
Posted

Nice post, Pete - James, I can feel your pain. I always hate it when people on this board get into the "I hope you sleet while I get 2 feet" mode; I always hope EVERYONE gets 2 feet. Unfortunately, it doesn't always work out - and of course, there's climatology. I live on the CP, and of course I'm jealous when I see Pete talk about all the snow he gets - but hey, he lives where he lives and I live where I live. Look at the other side - in the summer months, you live in one of the most beautiful placesand best climates on earth. The great thing about New England is that, no matter what, you can always go for a weekend in NH or VT and get some great snow (well, MOST of the time). I know it doesn't help but... I feel your pain and hopefully you'll get another big one!

And on that note - merry christmas, everyone!

Problem is that I am only here for another 2 weeks before going to south Texas. Time is running out, and this is the best potential to get the amazing snows. I am greatful for witnessing the Blizzard of 2005, so I know what three feet of snow looks like. Anyways enough off topic stuff, I need to focus on this storm system, should be one of those classic SNE monsters.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Pete, I have no idea and will defer to a Met. I'll try to go look up a website...

Gravity wave (gravitational wave) A wave disturbance in which buoyancy (or reduced gravity) acts as restoring force on parcels displaced from hydrostatic equilibrium. There is a direct oscillatory conversion between potential and kinetic energy in the wave motion.

http://www.flixxy.co...ravity-wave.htm

This is so cool

A mountain wave is technically a gravity wave too. You can sometimes see it on satellite when there are bands of clouds that extend southeastward and dissipate with distance downstream of the mountains with NW flow. Lenticular clouds downstream of the mountains are an indicator too.

Not to get too OT, but I've always loved this GW vid.

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

Thanks.

Yeah I understand, but I am going to start my USAF career in about 2 weeks, going to San Antonio, TX on the 11th and I don't have much time to experience another amazing nor'easter, like this one is coming along. So I am disappointed and will be surprised if I get more than 6" of sloppy snow.

I agree, it makes now casting very interesting.

If it makes you feel better I was in the Air Force during the "Bliz of '78" basking in the 90's

Good luck with your career. This weather stuff is miniscule to the meat and potatoes in life. Strive for the big things and the little stuff fall into place. Personally weather is just a hobby and in retrospect has consumed more time then I'm willing to admit.

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drew13btv

drew13btv

Posted
Posted

Read BOX's discussion and only spoke of rain issues on the Cape and Islands, should I be safe from any p-type issues? I wish I could be all snow but I also know where I am that if winds are strong enough to bring in warmth I sometimes mix.

0z model suite should make that an easier question to answer. As all of the AFD have said, small differences in surface tracks are going to happen and can't be pegged by the models this far out. It all depends on that.

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
Posted

If it makes you feel better I was in the Air Force during the "Bliz of '78" basking in the 90's

Good luck with your career. This weather stuff is miniscule to the meat and potatoes in life. Strive for the big things and the little stuff fall into place. Personally weather is just a hobby and in retrospect has consumed more time then I'm willing to admit.

Sounds good. Thanks for your service.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Wow, what a day. Just spent the past hour catching up on all the posts. I'm going to discount the 18z NAM for the init. errors as well as the RGEM, GFS, and Euro all being further east. Enjoy this one folks. We live for this ****.:thumbsup:

My call is 15-20" for me but possibly higher if I can get in one of those bands. I will have the camera at the ready.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Wow, what a day. Just spent the past hour catching up on all the posts. I'm going to discount the 18z NAM for the init. errors as well as the RGEM, GFS, and Euro all being further east. Enjoy this one folks. We live for this ****.:thumbsup:

My call is 15-20" for me but possibly higher if I can get in one of those bands. I will have the camera at the ready.

Hopefully we can get some people to see 2 feet and lots of 18"+ amounts....this would be the first HECS since January 2005 for our region if that occurs. Back then I was still on WWBB. Been a long time coming. :snowman:

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

A mountain wave is technically a gravity wave too. You can sometimes see it on satellite when there are bands of clouds that extend southeastward and dissipate with distance downstream of the mountains with NW flow. Lenticular clouds downstream of the mountains are an indicator too.

Not to get too OT, but I've always loved this GW vid.

Thanks Brian.

Time to put this one to rest. Like I said Steve will sniff one out if it's in the deck of cards and being played.

Now back to our regular programming schedule:

The NCEP site is nice. Usually have multiple tabs of the RUC open to compare and see trends unfolding.

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butterfish55

butterfish55

Posted
Posted

Wow, what a day. Just spent the past hour catching up on all the posts. I'm going to discount the 18z NAM for the init. errors as well as the RGEM, GFS, and Euro all being further east. Enjoy this one folks. We live for this ****.:thumbsup:

My call is 15-20" for me but possibly higher if I can get in one of those bands. I will have the camera at the ready.

If you see a green 4-door wrangler come rolling through Powhattan, flag me down. I'm planning on joy-riding monday morning.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Wow, what a day. Just spent the past hour catching up on all the posts. I'm going to discount the 18z NAM for the init. errors as well as the RGEM, GFS, and Euro all being further east. Enjoy this one folks. We live for this ****.:thumbsup:

My call is 15-20" for me but possibly higher if I can get in one of those bands. I will have the camera at the ready.

Slim chances for greater than 4". I'm going to dig that post up and save it.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Pete, I have no idea and will defer to a Met. I'll try to go look up a website...

Gravity wave (gravitational wave) A wave disturbance in which buoyancy (or reduced gravity) acts as restoring force on parcels displaced from hydrostatic equilibrium. There is a direct oscillatory conversion between potential and kinetic energy in the wave motion.

http://www.flixxy.co...ravity-wave.htm

This is so cool

Wow, cool video. Seems like an intense mechanism that must take a lot of energy to induce.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yep...beyond useful but RUC continues to advertise snowing in much of eastern MA by 12Z.

I mentioned further back there could be some mood snow...maybe even a steadier light snow if it goes well....during the morning hours before the main show. There is almost an inverted trough or a low level convergence zone with the onshore flow in the boundary layer. 850 has a light SE flow.

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HarveyLeonardFan

HarveyLeonardFan

Posted
Posted

Problem is that I am only here for another 2 weeks before going to south Texas. Time is running out, and this is the best potential to get the amazing snows. I am greatful for witnessing the Blizzard of 2005, so I know what three feet of snow looks like. Anyways enough off topic stuff, I need to focus on this storm system, should be one of those classic SNE monsters.

I feel your pain. I'm in Newport. BOX is calling for 8-14 down here but I'm not buying it. I've seen this movie play out way too many times, including December 2003. The ABC affiliate in PVD is calling for 3-6 down here and this is more reasonable. At the outset I'll stay snow a little longer than you, but on the back end when it turns colder following the dryslot you'll get some accumulating snow but I'll be too far west to get much in the way of serious additional accumulation. Hopefully the track sinks southward a little bit. This relentless NW track has been agonizing. PD II in 2003 did a good job keeping the cold air locked in for extreme Southeast Coastal areas. Maybe this one will too. But keep in mind most of the posters on this site will be getting hammered while we're one of the only ones in the NE quadrant of the country getting dumped on with heavy rain with temperatures rising into the upper 30s. Any of the pros care to give a forecast for the extreme South Coast from Newport on east? We're outnumbered in this thread because there are so few of us.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

LOL. 4-8" here? I may have had a litte too much :drunk: but even ic an tell you that that map is a load of bs.

I dont think they are focusing that far west given their viewer audience. If they were really trying to forecast for out there, I'm sure they'd have you in the heavier stuff.

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