XMAS Miracle: Blizzard of 2010 Lead-in Dialogue

[snowNH]

Thundersnow certainly possible when dealing with such an intense system as modeled, models showing some positive cape values and even a few hundred J/KG of elevated cape. Some insanely strong lift obviously as well.

I though we were in May for a second there.....

[powderfreak]

Yeah the upslope spots will be looking good. It actually doesn't look a whole lot better than this for a jackpot near here. Coastal front enhancement is likely going to occur in E MA somewhere...probably near Ray. Very frequently they will get a band there....and its doesn't always show up the best on radar because its more low level.

If the CF can get W far enough then I can benefit from both upslope and CF ll convergence. If that happened, then I'd probably get over 24"...but I think the CF stays well E of me because this has quite a strong ageostrophic north component to it.

I'm sure you've seen this but... looks like the SREF probs have a >70% chance of 8" in 12hrs right over ORH. That sounds about right as no matter where this tracks, you'll be in the cross-hairs given the NE upsloping flow on a strong llj. There must be some members way west skewing that little bubble of higher probs moving up the Hudson Valley, too. And also some members way east with the highest 12" probs just outside of BOS.

[powderfreak]

Probably midday tomorrow.

RUC has measurable snow to I-90 by 11am tomorrow... seems a lot quicker than BOX's forecast.

[weatherwiz]

I though we were in May for a second there.....

Thundersnow comes close to beating summer time convection.

[ski MRG]

Must be just virga coming into CT right now. My recollection is that some of the best storms I've lived through started early with some precursor snows that simply ramped up in intensity.

[ORH_wxman]

RUC has measurable snow to I-90 by 11am tomorrow... seems a lot quicker than BOX's forecast.

There could be some light snow breaking out ahead of the main stuff, but the real good stuff wont start until later in the afternoon. There's almost like a weak inverted trough that extends up ahead of the low which might make for the said area of lighter snow.

I'm not very confident on the start time either. That's one thing I really try to get right for the DOT people...they really love to know start time and this is not an easy one.

[New England Storm]

Love the Blizzard warning this is gonna be EPIC

[DomNH]

There could be some light snow breaking out ahead of the main stuff, but the real good stuff wont start until later in the afternoon. There's almost like a weak inverted trough that extends up ahead of the low which might make for the said area of lighter snow.

I'm not very confident on the start time either. That's one thing I really try to get right for the DOT people...they really love to know start time and this is not an easy one.

Yeah, I'm out of here tonight. Gonna watch this storm from the outskirts of Jackpot City. Starting to think even 12'' might be a very slight lowball, but I don't want to get too greedy lol.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Thundersnow comes close to beating summer time convection.

Just gonna' say that would be best of both worlds for you!'

[ChrisM]

Must be just virga coming into CT right now. My recollection is that some of the best storms I've lived through started early with some precursor snows that simply ramped up in intensity.

nothing coming down, too dry

[DomNH]

Just gonna' say that would be best of both worlds for you!'

Oh God no.

[weatherwiz]

Just gonna' say that would be best of both worlds for you!'

[HoarfrostHubb]

I think the jackpot is somewhere from you to skiMRG... someone will get stuck under a band and get like 24"+ inside a more general 12-18" snow shield. Plus, Will you on the ORH hills will upslope on the NE flow just like Pete. That slight upslope cooling and maybe some low level seeder feeder could help you guys pound snow plus for hour after hour. And not just 1/4sm but like 1/8 and 1/16sm +SN.

ORH ----> Hubbardston ------> MRG Land

I have not seen a 20"er since living here (did in Gardner in an apartment, other ones in other places)... could be the first coming up

[ROOSTA]

As we get into this people may want to bookmark this site. Boy, oh boy, she's going to be a dandy

Anyway this will reveal the meso-banding and you can set your own parameters.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl#

[weatherwiz]

As we get into this people may want to bookmark this site. Boy, oh boy, she's going to be a dandy

Anyway this will reveal the meso-banding and you can set your own parameters.

http://w1.spc.woc.no...or=19&parm=pmsl#

I LOVE that site. I'm glued to that like a hawk during the summer.

[TalcottWx]

Who got bets we see more tstorm action with this one rather then may

[HoarfrostHubb]

Everyone needs to make sure cameras are charges and space is avail on memory cards.

FWIW I have 2" on the ground now, so any measurements will need to include that if my board blows away

My mom in coastal SRI is expecting 60mph winds, some flooding (she is at about 8' above sea level, across from a little beach on Narragansett Bay)

[snowman21]

nothing coming down, too dry

The good news is with this storm we don't have 20-30 degree dew point depressions and a seemingly endless supply of dry air like we did for the 12/20/09 storm. Not sure on the blizzard warnings though. Seems a bit overdone overall between OKX and BOX.

[ORH_wxman]

With the rate of deepening on this low, we'll have to watch for gravity wave potential. That could enhance the snowfall rates greatly if we get one propagating over the area.

[HoarfrostHubb]

With the rate of deepening on this low, we'll have to watch for gravity wave potential. That could enhance the snowfall rates greatly if we get one propagating over the area.

Tip, and I think Ryan were mentioning this.

Two questions:

1) any possible way to guess timing on a g-wave?

2) will it be visible on radar?

I gravity waves

[H2Otown_WX]

With the rate of deepening on this low, we'll have to watch for gravity wave potential. That could enhance the snowfall rates greatly if we get one propagating over the area.

'97?

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Didn't you just get a foot of snow?

So what.

We were the jackpot just about 12-24 hours ago and now we are forecasted to get rain from the bulk of precip shield. This stinks, unfortunately everyone to the west of ORH and PVD need a track further west than the benchmark for an all out blizzard, the Cape then turns to mostly rain. Rain sucks, especially when you know someone to the west of you are receiving a blizzard with amounts likely exceeding 2' of snow, we got a foot of snow. I would rather have had this storm then the last one.

[ski MRG]

As we get into this people may want to bookmark this site. Boy, oh boy, she's going to be a dandy

Anyway this will reveal the meso-banding and you can set your own parameters.

http://w1.spc.woc.no...or=19&parm=pmsl#

Thanks Don. Bookmarked and waiting for repeated use.lol

[free_man]

Everyone needs to make sure cameras are charges and space is avail on memory cards.

FWIW I have 2" on the ground now, so any measurements will need to include that if my board blows away

My mom in coastal SRI is expecting 60mph winds, some flooding (she is at about 8' above sea level, across from a little beach on Narragansett Bay)

Great advice and thanks for the reminder. THe few epic wx events in my life , I'm always forgetting to grab the damn camera because of jaw dropping drooling/fogging window up obsessive mode.

...Not that the storm is going to be that great here, just a great reminder in general

[ski MRG]

With the rate of deepening on this low, we'll have to watch for gravity wave potential. That could enhance the snowfall rates greatly if we get one propagating over the area.

Can't Gravity waves also 'rob' some areas of snow as well?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

With the rate of deepening on this low, we'll have to watch for gravity wave potential. That could enhance the snowfall rates greatly if we get one propagating over the area.

Do gravity waves tend to propagate a certain distance away from the center of the low?

[HoarfrostHubb]

So what.

We were the jackpot just about 12-24 hours ago and now we are forecasted to get rain from the bulk of precip shield. This stinks, unfortunately everyone to the west of ORH and PVD need a track further west than the benchmark for an all out blizzard, the Cape then turns to mostly rain. Rain sucks, especially when you know someone to the west of you are receiving a blizzard with amounts likely exceeding 2' of snow, we got a foot of snow. I would rather have had this storm then the last one.

I would rather you get the blizzard, with less wind, more snow out here...

Anyway, good luck down there. It is going to be a doozy for you. Please no rain for you...

[HoarfrostHubb]

Can't Gravity waves also 'rob' some areas of snow as well?

NE mountainous terrain of CT

[weatherwiz]

Thanks for the heads up about the camera...I need to get batteries tomorrow.

[ORH_wxman]

Can't Gravity waves also 'rob' some areas of snow as well?

Yeah you can get some subsidence on the wrong side of it.

But I couldn't tell you where/when/if one would develop. I'm not an expert on them and they are very unpredictable. But with such a ridiculously fast deepening storm, its a definite threat.