Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Everyone should Prob wait one way or the other until post 0z. Check the afd down the coast re sitrep not quite as Planned out til later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Congrats Dom??? I think so... This thing is going to be flinging heavy bands off the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think so... This thing is going to be flinging heavy bands off the water So the NAM/GFS/Euro are all over a foot here. Locking in 12-18''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So the NAM/GFS/Euro are all over a foot here. Locking in 12-18''. So isn't HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm driving up to Stowe tomorrow from NYC...bahhhhhh so frustrated! You think we'll catch any upslope enhancement there? If the American models are correct (NAM 1-1.2" QPF, GFS .5-.75") this will be a pretty decent 5-10" dump on the front side, then when H85 winds veer from NNE to NW and increase in strength there could be a period of 6-12 hours of low density, heavy snowfall on Mansfield. I like seeing cyclonic moisture ushered into the upslope region at 30-50kts out of the NW with temps falling to below -15C (that's about perfect for upslope snow growth, where the snowflake production is taking place in that 5,000ft range). I'm pretty excited that the mountain may actually be able to salvage a significant snowfall thanks to orographics... and the density evolution will be perfect for skiing: a denser 12-15:1 ratio synoptic snow followed by some 30-40:1 upslope fluff. Beautiful stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So the NAM/GFS/Euro are all over a foot here. Locking in 12-18''. I'm think jackpot will be somewhere between my area and your/Ray's area. SREF was slamming that corridor with the probs....the banding could cause a secondary max out in the Berkshires, but its very difficult to forecast the banding diagnostics at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm think jackpot will be somewhere between my area and your/Ray's area. SREF was slamming that corridor with the probs....the banding could cause a secondary max out in the Berkshires, but its very difficult to forecast the banding diagnostics at this stage. I'm floored right now, I really am. This is the big one we've all been waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It could tick E 25 or 30 miles....but its not going to matter for 90% of the region...its a blizzard one way or the other. The Cape and extreme SE MA/SE RI could benefit with more snow if it goes slightly SE. This is all I need to know, later fire pit time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm floored right now, I really am. This is the big one we've all been waiting for. Not me, I get mostly rain on both the NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My fourth winter here in the N. Valley and I've never seen Box project 12"+ for us this far out. All week I felt a W. trend was coming but never dreamed of this! Hopefully no wind holds on the lifts at Berkshire East tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm think jackpot will be somewhere between my area and your/Ray's area. SREF was slamming that corridor with the probs....the banding could cause a secondary max out in the Berkshires, but its very difficult to forecast the banding diagnostics at this stage. Is it just a mattter of nowcasting for that or is there one particular short range model you like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My fourth winter here in the N. Valley and I've never seen Box project 12"+ for us this far out. All week I felt a W. trend was coming but never dreamed of this! Hopefully no wind holds on the lifts at Berkshire East tuesday. Why wait until then? You'll just be skiing chopped powder by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well hopefully the 18z models are a bit too far west...and we end up we a further east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is the first time I have ever seen Major coastal flooding indicated on the NWS surge/tide guidance which is found in the coastal flood watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is it just a mattter of nowcasting for that or is there one particular short range model you like? The mesoscale models like the NAM/MM5/SREFs can often help out, but the time frame is still 30-36 hours out, so it can change. Even just right before the storm its tough...a lot of it is nowcasting and looking at radar. You can look for the best area of mid-level frontogenesis to help you pinpoint the spot, but it doesn't always work. Also keeping an eye on the 7H/H85 low tracks...they make an approach to LI but then turn east...when/where they make the turn can affect it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is it just a mattter of nowcasting for that or is there one particular short range model you like? My limited wx knowledge is that deformation bands are strictly now cast events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z NAM model extraction is spitting out TSSN for a number of locations in eastern and central MA into SE NH at 9z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not me, I get mostly rain on both the NAM/GFS. Didn't you just get a foot of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Why wait until then? You'll just be skiing chopped powder by then. Meant monday. So excited i thought today was sunday already - lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Why wait until then? You'll just be skiing chopped powder by then. I have to work Monday morning, missing the powdah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The mesoscale models like the NAM/MM5/SREFs can often help out, but the time frame is still 30-36 hours out, so it can change. Even just right before the storm its tough...a lot of it is nowcasting and looking at radar. You can look for the best area of mid-level frontogenesis to help you pinpoint the spot, but it doesn't always work. Also keeping an eye on the 7H/H85 low tracks...they make an approach to LI but then turn east...when/where they make the turn can affect it too. I think the jackpot is somewhere from you to skiMRG... someone will get stuck under a band and get like 24"+ inside a more general 12-18" snow shield. Plus, Will you on the ORH hills will upslope on the NE flow just like Pete. That slight upslope cooling and maybe some low level seeder feeder could help you guys pound snow plus for hour after hour. And not just 1/4sm but like 1/8 and 1/16sm +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlestonNYC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 If the American models are correct (NAM 1-1.2" QPF, GFS .5-.75") this will be a pretty decent 5-10" dump on the front side, then when H85 winds veer from NNE to NW and increase in strength there could be a period of 6-12 hours of low density, heavy snowfall on Mansfield. I like seeing cyclonic moisture ushered into the upslope region at 30-50kts out of the NW with temps falling to below -15C (that's about perfect for upslope snow growth, where the snowflake production is taking place in that 5,000ft range). I'm pretty excited that the mountain may actually be able to salvage a significant snowfall thanks to orographics... and the density evolution will be perfect for skiing: a denser 12-15:1 ratio synoptic snow followed by some 30-40:1 upslope fluff. Beautiful stuff. Thanks for the info! Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think the jackpot is somewhere from you to skiMRG... someone will get stuck under a band and get like 24"+ inside a more general 12-18" snow shield. Plus, Will you on the ORH hills will upslope on the NE flow just like Pete. That slight upslope cooling and maybe some low level seeder feeder could help you guys pound snow plus for hour after hour. And not just 1/4sm but like 1/8 and 1/16sm +SN. Yea.. It all depends where that band sets up and pivots as the storm moves ENE. Could be anywhere in SNE at this point. Won't be able to tell until tomorrow afternoon probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think the jackpot is somewhere from you to skiMRG... someone will get stuck under a band and get like 24"+ inside a more general 12-18" snow shield. Plus, Will you on the ORH hills will upslope on the NE flow just like Pete. That slight upslope cooling and maybe some low level seeder feeder could help you guys pound snow plus for hour after hour. And not just 1/4sm but like 1/8 and 1/16sm +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 18z NAM model extraction is spitting out TSSN for a number of locations in eastern and central MA into SE NH at 9z Monday Great with my luck I'll get hit by lightning in a Blizzard Wait that would be Paul's way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think the jackpot is somewhere from you to skiMRG... someone will get stuck under a band and get like 24"+ inside a more general 12-18" snow shield. Plus, Will you on the ORH hills will upslope on the NE flow just like Pete. That slight upslope cooling and maybe some low level seeder feeder could help you guys pound snow plus for hour after hour. And not just 1/4sm but like 1/8 and 1/16sm +SN. Yeah the upslope spots will be looking good. It actually doesn't look a whole lot better than this for a jackpot near here. Coastal front enhancement is likely going to occur in E MA somewhere...probably near Ray. Very frequently they will get a band there....and its doesn't always show up the best on radar because its more low level. If the CF can get W far enough then I can benefit from both upslope and CF ll convergence. If that happened, then I'd probably get over 24"...but I think the CF stays well E of me because this has quite a strong ageostrophic north component to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah the upslope spots will be looking good. It actually doesn't look a whole lot better than this for a jackpot near here. Coastal front enhancement is likely going to occur in E MA somewhere...probably near Ray. Very frequently they will get a band there....and its doesn't always show up the best on radar because its more low level. If the CF can get W far enough then I can benefit from both upslope and CF ll convergence. If that happened, then I'd probably get over 24"...but I think the CF stays well E of me because this has quite a strong ageostrophic north component to it. Any general idea for a start time in HFD? I'm thinking I'll just leave tonight and stay ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think the jackpot is somewhere from you to skiMRG... someone will get stuck under a band and get like 24"+ inside a more general 12-18" snow shield. Plus, Will you on the ORH hills will upslope on the NE flow just like Pete. That slight upslope cooling and maybe some low level seeder feeder could help you guys pound snow plus for hour after hour. And not just 1/4sm but like 1/8 and 1/16sm +SN. From your lip to Ullr's ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Any general idea for a start time in HFD? I'm thinking I'll just leave tonight and stay ahead of it. Probably midday tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Thundersnow certainly possible when dealing with such an intense system as modeled, models showing some positive cape values and even a few hundred J/KG of elevated cape. Some insanely strong lift obviously as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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