A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ray's area could jackpot too...or even BOS....do not discount a slightly further E solution yet either. It very easy to get obsessed with the OP runs...but they can over trend very easily...we've seen this happen many times before as I already said earlier in this thread, but just for the early risiers. True, but Im starting to worry about some mixing too. Tombo just said the 6z GFS is coming in stronger and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wish him the happiest XMAS he ever had. Merry XMAS, Will....getting excited, starting to look like a classic. I doubt I beat the 26" from last February but winds should be more intense and temperatures much colder. Crazy storm but everything is lining up nicely, radar looks good early. Right back at you. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 True, but Im starting to worry about some mixing too. Tombo just said the 6z GFS is coming in stronger and further west. Mixing could be an issue maybe on LI....but it wont be an issue for Ray, for me, or even Jerry...maybe Cape Cod. The longwave pattern just wont allow for this storm to go far enough west for a ton of mixing...sans maybe the extreme coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas Nate!! If anyne is getting your Feb 2010 26" fetish...its probably either me or Kevin (probably me because I have a huge upslope advantage on him)...but I'm not going there yet. I'll be happy with 12"...no reason to go to insane yet, even if it is Christmas. Does my area and yours show jackpot? Because we know someway, somehow..exactly how much snow I'm getting. There's no way around it. It's 14 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mixing could be an issue maybe on LI....but it wont be an issue for Ray, for me, or even Jerry...maybe Cape Cod. The longwave pattern just wont allow for this storm to go far enough west for a ton of mixing...sans maybe KACK Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mixing could be an issue maybe on LI....but it wont be an issue for Ray, for me, or even Jerry...maybe Cape Cod. The longwave pattern just wont allow for this storm to go far enough west for a ton of mixing...sans maybe the extreme coastal areas. its going inland over NC on the 6z model maybe about 25-50 miles west of 0z GFS ugh lol, we're going to be sweating this out lol. If there is a rain snow line, would it be more important to be in western long island or away from the south shore? Basically, Im asking what the orientation of the rain/snow line would be. Like the Millenium Storm I was ok in my spot on the south shore, because I was in the western part of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Who was it that was throwing the Blizz of 78 around? Was it Ray? Wow..some eerie similarities as I look at stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Should I start a new thread on the epic rainstorm of 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Who was it that was throwing the Blizz of 78 around? Was it Ray? Wow..some eerie similarities as I look at stuff Yup. We got rain in that one too while just inland got whacked. Less wind with this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Who was it that was throwing the Blizz of 78 around? Was it Ray? Wow..some eerie similarities as I look at stuff Yeah I did, fell on deaf ears. , there are some similarities and differences. Most of the differences are from the surrounding features and similarities are from the storm itself, which is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 06z GFS is ridiculously amped up....at some point we'll have to start giving credibility to these solutions, but its difficult since those solutions involve an almost PERFECT phase to get it that amped up. But that is HECS type material for the interior if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 TIme sensitive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 06z GFS is ridiculously amped up....at some point we'll have to start giving credibility to these solutions, but its difficult since those solutions involve an almost PERFECT phase to get it that amped up. But that is HECS type material for the interior if that happens. omg maybe for here too, Will-- that thing stalls out 25-50 miles east of Cape May, NJ. Hurricane force winds with snow plus plus plus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah I did, fell on deaf ears. , there are some similarities and differences. Most of the differences are from the surrounding features and similarities are from the storm itself, which is interesting. Although that storm lasted a bit longer and did a loop de loop s of LI. Just totally incredulous this morning. This is why i go to bed early and not stay up for the models. So nice to wake up to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Blair..the winds with this on some of the models I';ve looked at would certainly rival the Blizz of 78. The 6z GFS would probably break every skyscraper window in BOS and PVD and about half the ones in HFD. Congrats Tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey Will if you're still awake..Did the Euro ens keep that CAD signal for NYE/NYD storm..or did they fall more to the 4 day torch on the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey Will if you're still awake..Did the Euro ens keep that CAD signal for NYE/NYD storm..or did they fall more to the 4 day torch on the op? Euro torched us, but the CAD signal is still there....merry christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Although that storm lasted a bit longer and did a loop de loop s of LI. Just totally incredulous this morning. This is why i go to bed early and not stay up for the models. So nice to wake up to this Merry Christmas, if the 06z gfs is right we all celebrate in style, measuring in feet. Probably overdone, but at this point hard to argue against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'll be back later. I hear my kids stirring. Hope you all great creamed. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 06z GFS is ridiculously amped up....at some point we'll have to start giving credibility to these solutions, but its difficult since those solutions involve an almost PERFECT phase to get it that amped up. But that is HECS type material for the interior if that happens. First and most important--Merry Christmas, everyone. I went to bed at GFS time, so I was aware of the NAM/RGEM soluctions but nothing more. It was one of those really optimistic 'turn off the computer' times with hopes and fear of what I might come down to. Couldn't be better. Well, actually it could for mby, but I digress. We're getting pretty darn close to just figuring out qpf amounts and details of whether any tainting my occur, will a secondary max form to the NW (my personal hope:) ), etc. Congratulations, all of us!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 First and most important--Merry Christmas, everyone. I went to bed at GFS time, so I was aware of the NAM/RGEM soluctions but nothing more. It was one of those really optimistic 'turn off the computer' times with hopes and fear of what I might come down to. Couldn't be better. Well, actually it could for mby, but I digress. We're getting pretty darn close to just figuring out qpf amounts and details of whether any tainting my occur, will a secondary max form to the NW (my personal hope:) ), etc. Congratulations, all of us!!! Merry Christmas..Positivity and optimism. and the NW trend in all the big ones..as we preached and as we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Man reading that thread from last night as the models and esp the Euro coming out was classic. Weenies just being chucked thru the air striking people across the face... Awesome stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 6z GFS Basically had 2" QPF for Chesapeake Bay and Boston, widespread 1- 1.25 for everyone in between,..... 1.5 inch QPF for Jersey Shore and Long Island and most of SNE outside of eastern NE which approached 2" as stated above..... storm doesnt end until Tuesday morning (72 hours from now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 6z GFS Basically had 2" QPF for Chesapeake Bay and Boston, widespread 1- 1.25 for everyone in between,..... 1.5 inch QPF for Jersey Shore and Long Island and most of SNE outside of eastern NE which approached 2" as stated above..... storm doesnt end until Tuesday morning (72 hours from now) Yeah based on some of the newer modelling..tthe AFD's are ending this way too quick on Monday. Looks like an all day Monday into late Monday night deal. With some places still snowing early Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My only question is start time. will it start Sunday afternoon or will it hold off till evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's time for me to really by pulling for the GFS. The 06 NAM has created a REALLY sharp cut-off that has shifted East, leaving me in the .25" range from my prior .50 spot. I hope that's not a flag of things to come! GFS still looking at 06z. So--NAM = 3-6 in MBY, GFS = 8-12. hmmmmmm Congrats to all your jackpot folks--you're so close, yet so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My only question is start time. will it start Sunday afternoon or will it hold off till evening? Im hearing morning for here-- the precip field on the radar seems to be blowing up ahead of guidance, which sometimes happens in big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's time for me to really by pulling for the GFS. The 06 NAM has created a REALLY sharp cut-off that has shifted East, leaving me in the .25" range from my prior .50 spot. I hope that's not a flag of things to come! GFS still looking at 06z. So--NAM = 3-6 in MBY, GFS = 8-12. hmmmmmm Congrats to all your jackpot folks--you're so close, yet so far! Mike you'll do fine..in fact your area very often is the 2ndary maxima in the big ones. 1-2 feet for you. No focusing on qpf..remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mike you'll do fine..in fact your area very often is the 2ndary maxima in the big ones. 1-2 feet for you. No focusing on qpf..remember? I knew the reverend would bring me strength! I'd be more comforted if ALY had the confidence to at put my neighboring VT zones at least into a watch. Again, I'm ohping the seconday max. It's my story and I'm sticking with it! OT--in my first post of the day, I managed to relocate the "tray" that had been at the bottom of my screen so it now goes across the right hand side. It's driving me crazy and I don't know how to fix it. Any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My only question is start time. will it start Sunday afternoon or will it hold off till evening? Think it should be coming at least lightly for you by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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