MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MMMMMM, very nice. I'll take it. 1.75+" QPF should shake out 12-18" easily. Hope it verifies. I'd guess over 20" with good ratios. Just texted Mike ... he's happy with things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What exactly is the GFS doing? It really loses a lot of steam for some reason with the precip bands in Maine. I hope that is a temporary glitch, and will actually be closer to a fuller NAM scenario. I have hard time buying that a storm that deep will lose the meso convec bands that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It honestly wouldn't be 2010 if NYC and phl didn't get into the heavy snow as well I hope the 500mb low tracks right up your fanny and pulls you out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 srefs in im out They've been out for awhile ewall. A few weird Eta members in both directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just printed out the 36hr panel from the 18z GFS and placed it next to the hand lotion for further analysis later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not bad, but bring the R/S line all the way inland to BOS-PVD. Matt I agree with your analysis of the flat panels. At face value and if this is what it is the rain/mix/crap line gets a lot further NW/W than people seem to think as does the dry slot from hell. But then there is the RGEM. What I find odd is right now even the Euro had issues right up to Boston so the blizzard warning for me is puzzling unless they really believe the front end thump is horrific or really just are going out on their own and doing what we always say they should do and FORECASTING. face value the dry slot will be an issue, it almost always pisses us off when it matters in SNE. And it is pre-NY, the water is still warm and this storm is going west of the RI/CT border. Those are all things that are usually bad news....so who knows. RUC - Kev's favorite model is faster and faster with each run and that's been picked up by the models,most of them each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just printed out the 36hr panel from the 18z GFS and placed it next to the hand lotion for further analysis later. That is one epic panel. I really hope this verifies for us WNE folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The correction back SE is evident on gfs and rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wonderful WV imagery right now over the CONUS..... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Text from Mike "I just shat!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is a concern too. ONE MAJOR CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH...THE AGEOSTROPHIC WIND COMPONENT MAY CAUSE THE WIND TO BLOW MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHEASTERLY WHICH COULD SPREAD COLD AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.wfsb.com/technicaldiscussion/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd guess over 20" with good ratios. Just texted Mike ... he's happy with things. LOL, sure. I'll keep my expectations in line with Box's forecast which gives me 15-16" currently. If a good band sets up along the East side of the crest as has happened many times before I could see pushing past that easily. The former Berkshire Snow Bowl ski area is just a minute up the road and I think I may head there around 5:30am Monday for the first set of turns then duck over to Berkshire East and ride the lifts. Powder day on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just printed out the 36hr panel from the 18z GFS and placed it next to the hand lotion for further analysis later. Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is a concern too. ONE MAJOR CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH...THE AGEOSTROPHIC WIND COMPONENT MAY CAUSE THE WIND TO BLOW MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHEASTERLY WHICH COULD SPREAD COLD AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. That would just be terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The correction back SE is evident on gfs and rgem. I didn't compare the RGEM, but the 18z GFS doesn't look very different to me from the 12z with the mid level low centers. At 36hr on the 18z the H5 closes off actually a little further north of the 12z 42hr frame. The 0C 850 nose makes it a little further west to me on 18z as well getting near TAN. You're safe though for a pounding. Enjoy the blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That would just be terrible Yeah..lol. Basically means don't rip and read gfs surface temps in late Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is a concern too. ONE MAJOR CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH...THE AGEOSTROPHIC WIND COMPONENT MAY CAUSE THE WIND TO BLOW MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHEASTERLY WHICH COULD SPREAD COLD AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. A typhoon tip walt drag special. Walt seems to nail those down pretty well. Long as that NAM was a ghost I think you guys are okay, just wait and see. I need a move east to save me but I'm not sure I want it...would rather have it up north! If we can get 3-6" here first that would be a piss poor blizzard, but I'd be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yikes!! doesn't get any better than this! THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY SNOW MAY ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. THOSE WITH HEART CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO SHOVEL IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 A typhoon tip walt drag special. Walt seems to nail those down pretty well. Long as that NAM was a ghost I think you guys are okay, just wait and see. I need a move east to save me but I'm not sure I want it...would rather have it up north! If we can get 3-6" here first that would be a piss poor blizzard, but I'd be happy Dec '03 comes to mind a little. Low tracked close to the coasy, but just ask bob what ageo flow did in Middleboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.wfsb.com/...sion/index.html Yo Adrianne! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dec '03 comes to mind a little. Low tracked close to the coasy, but just ask bob what ageo flow did in Middleboro. Hi, MattMuthafooker learn somethings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dec '03 comes to mind a little. Low tracked close to the coasy, but just ask bob what ageo flow did in Middleboro. Oh I remember, it snowed in my front yard rained in my backyard. Well, it's about time to dump the models and start to look to our south/ua/ruc/w/v etc... When was the last time BUOY's mattered? LOL been ages right Scott? Will be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, the last thing we need now is more fresh cold air......(sarcasm)... Anyone heard from the Reverend? He's at dinner with the In-laws I believe. Right now they are all gathered in a hushed silence as Kevin tells them about Bombogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh I remember, it snowed in my front yard rained in my backyard. Well, it's about time to dump the models and start to look to our south/ua/ruc/w/v etc... When was the last time BUOY's mattered? LOL been ages right Scott? Will be fun! IMBY, dryslot and ptype concerns me, but it's more the dryslot for me. That may not mean crap if that mesoscale stuff verifies nearby. Unfortunately, I'll be stuck in Andover for work. Probably gonna stay over tomorrow night for 6am shift Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 He's at dinner with the In-laws I believe. Right now they are all gathered in a hushed silence as Kevin tells them about Bombogenesis. I wonder what he would say if he was chosen to say grace before dinner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Family time... Thnk about that guys, been ages since we could watch one come up the coast using buoys. Where it actually mattered, where there may actually be mico-jumps going on etc. Pretty damn cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hi, MattMuthafooker learn somethings. Ginx!!! How deep's the egg nog in that end of the pool!! Merry Christmas!!!! Whhaaaa whhoooo!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At the aunts dreaming of tssn and 60mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hi, MattMuthafooker learn somethings. I'm just breaking down what the model is printing out. I've said all along I think it ends up a tweak SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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