SnowMan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah...I'd say somewhere between BOS-MHT. Why is the pivot point important? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Congrats on looking at stuff higher then Hsurface..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Congrats on looking at stuff higher then Hsurface..lol. Well, stuff like that is fine.....it's the larger scale that gives me trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why is the pivot point important? No dryslot.. keeps ripping with a rotating heavy band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z GFS CRUSHES Western CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Still not really great for eastern areas. Would dryslot anyone east of ORH. 500mb vort tracking right over the region is next perfect. Snow max definitely would be west. Face value a couple of inches on the cape up into SE MA. Dry slot issues by 30/33 hours and that is eventually over all of EMA east of worcester and maybe back as far as about Kev. It warms too, mixing still makes it way back. By 33/36 it's mixed/raining in extreme SE CT, the SE 1/2 of RI up to Boston based on 1000-850mb clown graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z GFS QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That qpf max over NYC and western CT is that banding signal I was saying.Wow. The stuff over ern mass seems to be generated from more lower level convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Face value a couple of inches on the cape up into SE MA. Dry slot issues by 30/33 hours and that is eventually over all of EMA east of worcester and maybe back as far as about Kev. It warms too, mixing still makes it way back. By 33/36 it's mixed/raining in extreme SE CT, the SE 1/2 of RI up to Boston based on 1000-850mb clown graphics. I' not so sure BOS is all that warm. Heavy heavy ageo flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why are both the NAM and GFS showing as much QPF over e ma as they are w ne, if we are going to dry slot......are they they just wrong or what?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why are both the NAM and GFS showing as much QPF over e ma as they are w ne, if we are going to dry slot......are they they just wrong or what?? Don't forget, QPF maps don't depict dry slots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Why are both the NAM and GFS showing as much QPF over e ma as they are w ne, if we are going to dry slot......are they they just wrong or what?? See 2 posts above. Low level conv. Not so sure how far back dryslot goes either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z GFS CRUSHES Western CT For now. The max lifted to the NNE again but less this time. It cut the QPF in southern Jersey from 1.50" to .75" this run and that encompasses all precip. It may be done moving NE, we will know soon. I need another 30 miles to shut off the warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 See 2 posts above. Low level conv. Not so sure how far back dryslot goes either. And CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Bizzard warnings expanded. Funny how they go around my county (Windham CT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Heavy heavy pissed people who are in dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That qpf max over NYC and western CT is that banding signal I was saying.Wow. The stuff over ern mass seems to be generated from more lower level convergence. insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I' not so sure BOS is all that warm. Heavy heavy ageo flow. I know.....he has a "rain in Boston" fetish......I always find it funny watching people's perspectives because they tend to project concerns and dissapointments of their own onto others......I can usually guess roughly where folks like because they give it away. Folks in NNE focus on how sharp the cut off is and Messenger how the dry slot and mixing will make it to Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I' not so sure BOS is all that warm. Heavy heavy ageo flow. Yeah face value, thats why I said clown maps. I really believe we're going to see it close off more to the ENE or NE next run and in reality. That should pinch off the warm air even more. Frankly though it's kind of amazing that the RGEM is that far east, americans that far west. In the post mortem if these three blew it GFS/NAM/EC I wonder if they will tie it back to the data "problem"....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For now. The max lifted to the NNE again but less this time. It cut the QPF in southern Jersey from 1.50" to .75" this run and that encompasses all precip. It may be done moving NE, we will know soon. I need another 30 miles to shut off the warm air. I think the idea though of 2 maxes is really becoming likely, one somewhere in western areas and then one in NE MA...in fact those two areas of maxes matches my map quite well of where I have the maxes set up lol. Although my totals would probably be on the lower side given the QPF on these runs. Before I make any updates though I want to see the 0z runs come in this wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dendrite.. do we dryslot on any of these runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 See 2 posts above. Low level conv. Not so sure how far back dryslot goes either. If the banding is west, hopefully I can catch the cf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think the idea though of 2 maxes is really becoming likely, one somewhere in western areas and then one in NE MA...in fact those two areas of maxes matches my map quite well of where I have the maxes set up lol. Although my totals would probably be on the lower side given the QPF on these runs. Before I make any updates though I want to see the 0z runs come in this wet. Yep with the lows that far west someone out there is going to get nailed and it might be the real jackpot in terms of QPF as we have issues east. The NOGAPS manages to come west yet thread the needle and through a combination of eastward then NE movement and dryslots fails to really "nail" anyone. Nice hit but funny at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That qpf max over NYC and western CT is that banding signal I was saying.Wow. The stuff over ern mass seems to be generated from more lower level convergence. Great call, thank you. I'll take that sliver of 1.75-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dendrite.. do we dryslot on any of these runs? No worries. Enjoy the period of +SN. You're not going to jackpot so just be happy with the good thumping you should get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the low can tick east or start the eastward movement a little earlier, then the rearranges things a little. Def gonna be an interesting 24 hrs of modeling and nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 srefs in im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 srefs in im out Not bad, but bring the R/S line all the way inland to BOS-PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z GFS QPF MMMMMM, very nice. I'll take it. 1.75+" QPF should shake out 12-18" easily. Hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It honestly wouldn't be 2010 if NYC and phl didn't get into the heavy snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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