40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 NCEP says init error with 18z NAM I think HPC has some itialization errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 A solution this far west certainly can't be ruled out, with the trough as negatively tilted as this is it's certainly quite possible. the NAM is going nuts with that piece of energy from quebec , its phasing it in stronger and earlier every run yanking the storm west, this is what Sam had been alluding to a few days ago.....but i dont think it has much support from other models with that piece of energy, at least not as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Relax..lol. You should do fine. Just something I'm watching. If anything, maybe you'll get meso banding from cf. I think all the 18z NAM tells us is that a 8-15" kind of forecast is good for now. That covers dry slot issues and also ptype issues near 128 in Boston. I'm not sure where the mesoscale banding sets up but somewhat conservative for now with totals is probably the way to go as long as people understand someone in SNE is going to get 15-20" it's just unclear where. I wouldn't be shocked to see a NYC'/HV jackpot from this with dry slot issues even as far west as me. Who knows... but that's on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FYI buoy 42039 in GOM is down to 1006 mb already at 1950z. 12z NAM and GFS had 1007 and 1008 mb respectively at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That sounds about right. The 18z depiction of the low track is pretty awful for big snows east of IJD-ORH. With the caveat it ends up this far west. Right all based entirely on the discussion of the 18z, we're not forecasting this for those that are not reading everything. That's my take on the 18z NAM. You don't get blizzards in Boston or even all that close with a 700mb low passing so close or over head like the 18z NAM has.... NJ is going to get crushed as is NYC. I would much rather be looking at this to our south vs sw. There is going to be a giant dry slot in the shape of a big middle finger pointing at us from Hatteras later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Best chance for 2 foot amts is GC..remember that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think HPC has some itialization errors. 2 Jackpots on this run, you will end up with the win...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I agree....e MA.weenies finger-fooking the QPF charts would be surely dissapointed if this evoloution was correct; I suspect to be an overtrend, but if not, e MA will not make out as well as QPF implies. That's def the farthest nw now. I don't think you have much to worry about, but then again..I didn't either in Feb '06. SREFskilled you and most models take this near or se of ACK. That's fine for you. Just hope 00z isn't more nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm gonna stick to this being an overtrend; Will was adamant that this didn't have room to screw me. I certainly hope for you it does not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM is an outlier..... preferred track and consensus is obviously to the SE of it.. relax weenies in esne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I agree....e MA.weenies finger-fooking the QPF charts would be surely dissapointed if this evoloution was correct; I suspect to be an overtrend, but if not, e MA will not make out as well as QPF implies. Yeah 700 mb low track is not good for eastern areas on the NAM for sure. It's probably a western outlier but it's a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM is western outlier right now, not worried about warmer air issues from areas west of the Cape Cod Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Relax..lol. You should do fine. Just something I'm watching. If anything, maybe you'll get meso banding from cf. I don't need any wx anxiety right now; my hernia is reggrevated and I can hardly event sit down......a kick in the nuts from this would send me over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NCEP says init error with 18z NAM Read closer they say it only effects snow totals in NE CT. It's the 18z NAM and I probably agree with you more now re yesterday. Something ain't right. This is unprecedented. If this low ends up cutting up over say PVD...Ray will lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the NAM is going nuts with that piece of energy from quebec , its phasing it in stronger and earlier every run yanking the storm west, this is what Sam had been alluding to a few days ago.....but i dont think it has much support from other models with that piece of energy, at least not as robust. Will be interesting to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Read closer they say it only effects snow totals in NE CT. It's the 18z NAM and I probably agree with you more now re yesterday. Something ain't right. This is unprecedented. If this low ends up cutting up over say PVD...Ray will lose it. Gov't coverup..no doubt about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think all the 18z NAM tells us is that a 8-15" kind of forecast is good for now. That covers dry slot issues and also ptype issues near 128 in Boston. I'm not sure where the mesoscale banding sets up but somewhat conservative for now with totals is probably the way to go as long as people understand someone in SNE is going to get 15-20" it's just unclear where. I wouldn't be shocked to see a NYC'/HV jackpot from this with dry slot issues even as far west as me. Who knows... but that's on the table. Yeah I think the overall banding signal is best from NYC to western NE..even on the euro. Dryslots always worry me with a low in that position, but that's something that will need more time to figure out. We all know how they like to go west of where we think. Seems like some sort of CF type band will be around eastern areas..but where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah 700 mb low track is not good for eastern areas on the NAM for sure. It's probably a western outlier but it's a possibility. If you look closely at 39h at 700mb you can see it's actually so wound up it's only partly cloudy in tolland. This is pretty much the GGEM at 120-144 hours. Nice work by the models! 1 run, but comical. Kev made the best prediction of all when he said this storm would force us to check computers all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Caribou NWS hoisting Blizzard Watches for their coastal areas. All of coastal Maine under a Blizzard Watch. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah I think the overall banding signal is best from NYC to western NE..even on the euro. Dryslots always worry me with a low in that position, but that's something that will need more time to figure out. We all know how they like to go west of where we think. Seems like some sort of CF type band will be around eastern areas..but where? No way the best banding signal is west........nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ryan do you think being west of the river is a good place to be right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Any chance BOX will issue Blizzard Watches for coastal MA later? Already up for coastal ME and NH. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wouldn't go as far as calling the NAM an outlier here, in fact I think it could be onto something here possibly. Both the NAM/GFS (18z NAM vs. 12z GFS) have this closing off at 850 at the same time, around 6z Monday...once this happens the system will begin to reach it's peak intensity and as it occludes it will have one final push of warm moist air being drawn into it. Take a look at the baroclinic zone on both the 18z NAM vs. 12z GFS...it's much closer to the coast than the GFS is. Not saying this is correct but I would think the NAM would have abetter handle on this than the GFS would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ryan do you think being west of the river is a good place to be right now? Yes... I'd rather be where you are than where me or Kevin are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No way the best banding signal is west........nope. Depends on low track, but I like NYC to central areas for banding. That doesn'tmean they get most qpf. CCB and qpf will be towards here, but you play games with dryslot too. Hopefully NAM is too far nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Any chance BOX will issue Blizzard Watches for coastal MA later? Already up for coastal ME and NH. Love it. OKX already issued blizzard warnings for CT and NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No way the best banding signal is west........nope. Ray: "looks like the dry slot is coming right at SNE" someone else : "Nah models show it will stay south of us but we'll be fine" 3 hours later Ray: "Dry slot is right up to the coast" someone else :"looks like it's redeveloping on the southern edge" 3 hours later Ray: "Dry slot is NW of 495" someone else: "Yeah but it's going to fill in soon to the se as it all swoops down" 3 hours later Ray: "leading edge of that snow band looks to be drying as it moves SE, I've only had 1" of snow in the last 5 hours" someone else " I told you it would be a miss" Ray's been very level headed this entire time, I feel his concern. This is not insulting anyone or implying anything! I can see this being the outcome if the 18z were to verify. Has there ever been a time when the NAM or GFS has underpredicted the penetration of the dry slot with a huge east coast storm? It's one model run, but I really really hope for Ray and Scott, and everyone else in the eastern 1/3 it trends a few miles SE at the northern extent. That would keep everyone including Nh/ME in the money and only exclude those that just got the 18z surprise. I hate this run for our area, love it for NJ/NYC and ski country (NW 1/2 of CT too, western 1/2 of MA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FYI buoy 42039 in GOM is down to 1006 mb already at 1950z. 12z NAM and GFS had 1007 and 1008 mb respectively at 0z been here before... as i said earlier and 18Z ETA unfortunately confirms, the intensity and northwest extent of these storms, especially with such a negative tilt, is frequently underestimated by the models... we are seeing a significant NW trend in track that will have a huge impact on snow max in 12 hours, we have gone from E-SNE max to W-SNE / NYC max, with clear mixing and dry slot issues cutting down snow imby (boston suburbs) let's hope this trend stops but i fear otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Depends on low track, but I like NYC to central areas for banding. That doesn'tmean they get most qpf. CCB and qpf will be towards here, but you play games with dryslot too. Hopefully NAM is too far nw. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z NAM shows a lot of rain for Cape Cod and Nantucket with a track right over us, it even dry slots for like 12 hours. I don't like the trend of going this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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