SnowLove Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I will cut off my weenie for good if BOS ends up mixing and this entire thing shifts west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm a bit worried about dry slot potential in some spots too. With a sfc low over MTP there's always problems somewhere nearby. The NAM really crushes the NYC area which tells me that it's possible the best frontogenesis and cold conveyorbelt action winds up west of many of us. MRG for the win? There will be a 12-20" band somewhere... maybe a 2 foot lolli somwhere but I think it's too early to pin that down now. How many times does this type of track pummel our areas. As the storm is exploding it's heading straight into LI. There's going to be a split in the precip somewhere NNE or NE of the surface low pressure until it all collapses ESE. Anyway, enjoy the rest of the afternoon all. What a shi( show. 24-30 hours out and the precip has moved 200 miles in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the NAM is right, 6-12 Boston to SE PVD. If it tracks to LI it will underdo warm air but to the NW should be fine thats just my opinion. Another ten miles NW and it's going to be a real issue.. It'll be enough to contaminate things. SE of about Marshfield to New Bedford 4-7/3-6, SE of Exit 4 on Rte 3 to east wareham 2-4/3-6. That's if I'm reading the maps right and it takes it up to about the middle of LI. Ski country gets blasted. High ratios, cold temperatures, beautiful white gold. They must be so freaking happy right now. 6-12 based on the nam I just saw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm a bit worried about dry slot potential in some spots too. With a sfc low over MTP there's always problems somewhere nearby. The NAM really crushes the NYC area which tells me that it's possible the best frontogenesis and cold conveyorbelt action winds up west of many of us. MRG for the win? There will be a 12-20" band somewhere... maybe a 2 foot lolli somwhere but I think it's too early to pin that down now. NAM gets dryslot into ern mass and RI and has huge banding over NYC. They'll get crushed on this run. Prob wrn mass too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I like 8-15. Probably won't bump up until the morning. But I do certainly think there will be a 12-20 band somewhere. Better hope GFS valley downslope is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Actually looking at H7 RH fields...looks like at 42-48 there could be some potential issues...especially eastern CT. Kevin dry slots while I still see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM QPF is great, but getting concerning for RI/E MA. 500mb tracking towards GON at 42hr is awful for eastern areas, and 0z line pushes quite inland to TAN. Plus RH is showing the dryslot punching into RI and over SE MA. A track like that is pretty clearly puts a snow max through C/W regions. But...that's just 18z at face value. A few ticks east and it'd be golden. In the meantime though this is looking more and more like 2/06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the NAM is right, 6-12 Boston to SE PVD. If it tracks to LI it will underdo warm air but to the NW should be fine thats just my opinion. Another ten miles NW and it's going to be a real issue.. It'll be enough to contaminate things. SE of about Marshfield to New Bedford 4-7/3-6, SE of Exit 4 on Rte 3 to east wareham 2-4/3-6. That's if I'm reading the maps right and it takes it up to about the middle of LI. Ski country gets blasted. High ratios, cold temperatures, beautiful white gold. They must be so freaking happy right now. 6-12" for Boston? What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Actually looking at H7 RH fields...looks like at 42-48 there could be some potential issues...especially eastern CT. Kevin dry slots while I still see snow I'd like to see the other models come that far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 A solution this far west certainly can't be ruled out, with the trough as negatively tilted as this is it's certainly quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Barely cover but cover Nice. That's all that matters. Extreme delayed reaction on my part, but all of this Christmas Hoopla is making it hard for me to get on the computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Boston looks to get crushed on the NAM! Over 2" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Better hope GFS valley downslope is wrong mesoscale banding will save me. You could bee too far east. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM gets dryslot into ern mass and RI and has huge banding over NYC. They'll get crushed on this run. Prob wrn mass too. I'm going to fu**inng lose it if this comes to pass........Unfooking real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Women and children first says JB UPDATING THIS MORNINGS POST.. SEVERE STORM TO SHUT NORTHEAST CORRIDOR PHL NORTHEAST FOR 12-24 HOURS. STORM FORCE GUSTS DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND WITH 12-24 INCH AMOUNTS LEADING TO MASSIVE DRIFTS. AS BAD OR WORSE THAN ANY OF THE STORMS LAST YEAR FOR MANY PHL TO BOSTON, SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. ROGUE CHARACTERISTICS WITH PRESSURE NEAR 28. 70 AT MOUTH OF DEL BAY TOMORROW NIGHT AND NEAR 28.55 BEFORE REACHING NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the NAM is right, 6-12 Boston to SE PVD. If it tracks to LI it will underdo warm air but to the NW should be fine thats just my opinion. Another ten miles NW and it's going to be a real issue.. It'll be enough to contaminate things. SE of about Marshfield to New Bedford 4-7/3-6, SE of Exit 4 on Rte 3 to east wareham 2-4/3-6. That's if I'm reading the maps right and it takes it up to about the middle of LI. Ski country gets blasted. High ratios, cold temperatures, beautiful white gold. They must be so freaking happy right now. That sounds about right. The 18z depiction of the low track is pretty awful for big snows east of IJD-ORH. With the caveat it ends up this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM gets dryslot into ern mass and RI and has huge banding over NYC. They'll get crushed on this run. Prob wrn mass too. Scott, what kind of qpf here? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z NAM QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As per the 18z NAM looks like even the western burbs of Boston have mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 A solution this far west certainly can't be ruled out, with the trough as negatively tilted as this is it's certainly quite possible. I'm gonna stick to this being an overtrend; Will was adamant that this didn't have room to screw me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm going to fu**inng lose it if this comes to pass........Unfooking real. Relax..lol. You should do fine. Just something I'm watching. If anything, maybe you'll get meso banding from cf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 mesoscale banding will save me. You could bee too far east. Oops. Oh so you've pinpointed mesoscale banding over WH 36 hrs out? Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM gets dryslot into ern mass and RI and has huge banding over NYC. They'll get crushed on this run. Prob wrn mass too. And all of central/northern new england. parts of NJ/NYC area may see some epic snows. Jackpot there. NAM QPF is great, but getting concerning for RI/E MA. 500mb tracking towards GON at 42hr is awful for eastern areas, and 0z line pushes quite inland to TAN. Plus RH is showing the dryslot punching into RI and over SE MA. A track like that is pretty clearly puts a snow max through C/W regions. But...that's just 18z at face value. A few ticks east and it'd be golden. In the meantime though this is looking more and more like 2/06. 100% agree. I hope this is the NW outlier in some ways for all of you, other ways I'd love to see a foot of snow in ski country they need it terribly. 6-12" for Boston? What are you talking about? You expect more than a foot in Boston with a low tracking to long island? Any analogs? The 700mb low tracks over your head or very close. Not normally favorable for a full on blizzard in boston. Again all based on the 18z NAM this isn't a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wow NAM phases in that northern quebec energy even better i would defintiely be concerned if i was in boston for some mixing, but obviously there will still be a ton of snow for everyone what an insane bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 mesoscale banding will save me. You could bee too far east. Oops. I went 5-9'' for the Springfield through Hartford area on my map just b/c of the potential downslope, but if it becomes apparent the banding sets up over us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NCEP says init error with 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Holy fool Nam.. 1-2 feet here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM QPF is great, but getting concerning for RI/E MA. 500mb tracking towards GON at 42hr is awful for eastern areas, and 0z line pushes quite inland to TAN. Plus RH is showing the dryslot punching into RI and over SE MA. A track like that is pretty clearly puts a snow max through C/W regions. But...that's just 18z at face value. A few ticks east and it'd be golden. In the meantime though this is looking more and more like 2/06. I agree....e MA.weenies finger-fooking the QPF charts would be surely dissapointed if this evoloution was correct; I suspect to be an overtrend, but if not, e MA will not make out as well as QPF implies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 oh man lol NCEP says init error with 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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