CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z NAM is beautiful for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18Z over the cape. Taint implied out to 495. Nah we stay snow... that would be heavy paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Blizzard Watch for Dendrite. No way it verifies though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 H85 line gets to Hull and then recedes back. Gonna be close. Hopefully the N winds keep crushing the warm layers. H925 line makes it to BOS and then recedes back. Either way....lots of snow, possible mix, then snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z WOULD CRUSH ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Damn is the NAM amped up. LP over E LI and 850 0C flirting with TAN at 36hr? Pouring snow in SNE/CNE 30-36. The NAM now is close to bringing this into CT. It almost does it this run. Not usually a favorable snow track, let's be honest, for most of SE NE. Sure front end thump, but if this is right a lot of warmer air is going to intrude. NCEP called it, they said the NAM was probably too weak in the southern stream but didnt think that it would have a huge effect. In the end it does help to tuck this back amongst other things on this run. Absolutely staggeringly bad performances by models if this is close to right or it ends up even more exreme. Blizzard in western Maine FTW. Sure everyone else gets a good front end or regular snow dump, but we've gone from outside the BM to LI in less than 24 hours inside of 42-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z NAM is beautiful for me Better unlock your lock and up the lock then relock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Then again, NAM snow tool has 18-24 sitting over BOS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Isn't the NAM's thermal profile typically too warm? Or is it the reverse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 lol.........Using my brother inlaws computer...............ftw GYX just updated the 7-day point ... 7-11" Sunday night panel. More to follow Monday. Pinch me, slap me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Better unlock your lock and up the lock then relock I like 8-15. Probably won't bump up until the morning. But I do certainly think there will be a 12-20 band somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12-18 line N and W of PYM. 4-8 for most of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Big hit for CNE/NNE now in addition to SNE. Want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18Z over the cape. Taint implied out to 495. If this is the correct trend there's more implied than that. I'm packing the bags for ski country. In 3 runs most of VT has gone from flurries/snow showers to 6-12" or more of snow. They can blame bad data all they want, models sucking has just as much to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Isn't the NAM's thermal profile typically too warm? Or is it the reverse? We're getting buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wow 18z nam crushes the areas away from the coast all i gotta say is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is the 18z nam good for new haven area still, or are we starting to get concerned with that pesky rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I like 8-15. Probably won't bump up until the morning. But I do certainly think there will be a 12-20 band somewhere. They're def will be. NYC looks like a sweet spot possibly right now on nw side of low. Maybe another area of CT or wrn mass. Then, perhaps second area ORH eastto near BOS. BOS could be tainted for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That dude driving to Stowe just got happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm a bit worried about dry slot potential in some spots too. With a sfc low over MTP there's always problems somewhere nearby. The NAM really crushes the NYC area which tells me that it's possible the best frontogenesis and cold conveyorbelt action winds up west of many of us. MRG for the win? There will be a 12-20" band somewhere... maybe a 2 foot lolli somwhere but I think it's too early to pin that down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LOL when I told moneymike that the NCEP error noted in the NAM should have meant it went NW...holy crap didn think this much. Going to be huge up at sunday river, HUGE! Just what we needed as next week doesn't look particularly cold. Even albany gets smoked. This low is getting so far NW if it doesn't stop congrats VT/ENY/NH/ME Sounds good to me. Got that fat boards out ready to stomp. I'll be skinning up somewhere in the pre-dawn light Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is the 18z nam good for new haven area still, or are we starting to get concerned with that pesky rain/snow line. I highly doubt New Haven sees any type of p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Parts of NE MA get over 2" QPF in 12-15hrs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12-18 line N and W of PYM. 4-8 for most of the Cape. If the NAM is right, 6-12 Boston to SE PVD. If it tracks to LI it will underdo warm air but to the NW should be fine thats just my opinion. Another ten miles NW and it's going to be a real issue.. It'll be enough to contaminate things. SE of about Marshfield to New Bedford 4-7/3-6, SE of Exit 4 on Rte 3 to east wareham 2-4/3-6. That's if I'm reading the maps right and it takes it up to about the middle of LI. Ski country gets blasted. High ratios, cold temperatures, beautiful white gold. They must be so freaking happy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm a bit worried about dry slot potential in some spots too. With a sfc low over MTP there's always problems somewhere nearby. The NAM really crushes the NYC area which tells me that it's possible the best frontogenesis and cold conveyorbelt action winds up west of many of us. MRG for the win? There will be a 12-20" band somewhere... maybe a 2 foot lolli somwhere but I think it's too early to pin that down now. I went with parts of central/eastern MA into portions of N. RI for the highest amounts form possible banding. I could definitely see this shift west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm a bit worried about dry slot potential in some spots too. With a sfc low over MTP there's always problems somewhere nearby. The NAM really crushes the NYC area which tells me that it's possible the best frontogenesis and cold conveyorbelt action winds up west of many of us. MRG for the win? There will be a 12-20" band somewhere... maybe a 2 foot lolli somwhere but I think it's too early to pin that down now. Whudda thunk. We shall see. Why not come visit the folks down in Willliamburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Cut QPF ... CUT QPF!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Do we consider this the NW overamplified outlier? This solution is nuts!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is the 18z nam good for new haven area still, or are we starting to get concerned with that pesky rain/snow line. I wouldn't worry about rain. In situations like this where temperatures creep up New Haven often stays colder than Boston similar to March 2001 where New Haven had around 15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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