NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well you can easily tell him Santa knocked it over. I'm starting to believe that we just might see a HECS in this part of SNE. I'm always very cautious about throwing that term around when talking about a current event, but I'm starting to think about it. I won't let myself believe though until tomorrow's 12z runs. Its hard to believe a solution as far west as the GFS and Euro verbatim...but they might be true....but something even slightly E of there would be a MECS here and perhaps borderline HECS here. But it takes a lot to get a HECS in ORH...I reserve that term for a top 10 snowstorm. 10th place here is a 20.2" in Feb 1978 blizzard. But we could get something like that if we can arrange a perfect stall S of LI. That sfc low placement would put me at a good upslope position...it wouldn't be as good as Dec 1992 because the ageostrophic wind will be a lot more north and the actual wind as a result would be more north too. But still something to start getting excited about. Your area is starting to look pretty good too, even if out of the heaviest snows. It really is crazy how this has unfolded. On one hand it's within 48hrs and it appears all the models have corrected themselves in the short term, supported by WV loop I'd say. But then you have absolutely 0 continuity to go off of (I guess the gfs has had it since 12z today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 2" of QPF and most of it will be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Could still trend east (nam/gfs) though not sure it helps ACK any. Have a happy holiday. Thanks for the kind words. i don't think i have much hope out here in the Atlantic. I'm used to it, though. Happy Holidays to you too. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It really is crazy how this has unfolded. On one hand it's within 48hrs and it appears all the models have corrected themselves in the short term, supported by WV loop I'd say. But then you have absolutely 0 continuity to go off of (I guess the gfs has had it since 12z today). Its unlike any forecast I've been a part of. Even Feb 2003 (PDII) that came upon us very late, was seen from the south....and wasn't a phasing issue. The only phase issue storm I can remember that trended so hard inside of 84 hours was the March 2001 storm...it went from a DCA-PHL (to NYC northern fringe) at 96 hours or even 84h....to a SNE HECS at 48 hours (but still a HECS for NYC and a MECS for PHL) to a SNE HECS 24 hours out while NYC would get a MECS and PHL too (12"+). Then in reality only part of SNE got HECS (interior massachusetts but not CT or RI) and NYC to PHL was a complete bust. NYC got like 3-6" of snow while PHL got almost nothing. Amazing. This is different in that its the other direction. But the dynamics are a bit different...a big phase was involved both times though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow looks like for once I wake up to good things for a change, Merry Christmas guys!! Thanks again to all the pro mets and others who provide the weenies with real time info as it comes out. Anyway just had to look, not sure I can go back to bed now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Seems like people are really focused on snow totals, but I'm wondering... How powerful could the winds be on this thing? How far inland? Will there be much in the way of coastal flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well I'm almost out....congrats to Kevin who will be up soon. Merry Christmas. As we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You'll probably end up ok...these things usually trend a bit later and north with there tendency to blow their snow load on someone. You'll probably get in one one good band and then suffer downlope SN- the rest of the event while I pile it up in ORH. Lol...you'll get me back though on the January pattern because that looks a bit more SWFE-ish or at least one where latitude helps. Hopefully we can all enjoy a decent event though. This is the type of storm where my area will get you....you probably only avg an inch or two more than me (maybe 3-4 at most...not sure your exact orographics....but CON is 64" and I'm 69" and I assume you are more than CON at 600 feet and N) But you destroyed me in '07-'08 and '08-'09...I got you in a "who sucked less" battle last year but barely. So these are the types of storms where I might score a lot better than your area....but like I said, hopefully its one of those "dendrite 12 inches, ORH 24 inches" type deals. I'll be happy with 12" myself...but I can hope for that former scenario. Will, we have a WSW and Gale Watch out here, but sadly, Upton is saying to expect only 6-8" of snow here with 35 mph gusts. Do you think theyre playing it conservative and that will need to be upped much? Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well I'm almost out....congrats to Kevin who will be up soon. Merry Christmas. As we thought. Merry Christmas and thanks for all your hard work. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Seems like people are really focused on snow totals, but I'm wondering... How powerful could the winds be on this thing? How far inland? Will there be much in the way of coastal flooding? I'm not an expert but right now there could be some minor coastal flooding, at least. Tides aren't at their highest (afternoon /very early AM high tides) but if the storm stalls for 6-12 hours , that would defintely cause some concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Will, we have a WSW and Gale Watch out here, but sadly, Upton is saying to expect only 6-8" of snow here with 35 mph gusts. Do you think theyre playing it conservative and that will need to be upped much? Of course they are playing it conservative...and they should. This is an ugly wacky set of model runs. But it argues for a big snow there and blizzard conditions. They need to start conservative given the model uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Of course they are playing it conservative...and they should. This is an ugly wacky set of model runs. But it argues for a big snow there and blizzard conditions. They need to start conservative given the model uncertainty. It should be fun.... as long as the power stays on lol. Merry Christmas and thanks for your hard work..... as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Will, we have a WSW and Gale Watch out here, but sadly, Upton is saying to expect only 6-8" of snow here with 35 mph gusts. Do you think theyre playing it conservative and that will need to be upped much? Correction, 6-9" with 40 mph gusts for southern Nassau. Lol. Still waiting for their morning discussion to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone!!...I woke up to texts from Will, Ryan, Ray, and Gibbs lol...I feel like I'm dreaming. Said a prayer last night for the storm to come. Just an amazing turn of events the last 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well I'm almost out....congrats to Kevin who will be up soon. Merry Christmas. As we thought. Congrats to the GFS?? Whatever NCEP did to mess with the models yesterday..thank you guys from the bottom of my heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone!!...I woke up to texts from Will, Ryan, Ray, and Gibbs lol...I feel like I'm dreaming. Said a prayer last night for the storm to come. Just an amazing turn of events the last 24 hrs. Congrats. Rain here but I'm glad for you inland guys. You've been waiting a long time. At least I expect to be snowless out here. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I haven't seen any Euro qpf..If anyone's up how does look around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Correction, 6-9" with 40 mph gusts for southern Nassau. Lol. Still waiting for their morning discussion to come out. I bet we get over a foot and 50+ mph winds. Power might go out. We'll have to see what happens, but everything looks really good for us so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Congrats. Rain here but I'm glad for you inland guys. You've been waiting a long time. At least I expect to be snowless out here. Merry Christmas. Merry Christmas Blair. Hopefully you can stay all snow down there. Would be nice if we could all relish in this festivus miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone!!...I woke up to texts from Will, Ryan, Ray, and Gibbs lol...I feel like I'm dreaming. Said a prayer last night for the storm to come. Just an amazing turn of events the last 24 hrs. Merry Xmas, Kev! oh and the Euro looked a lot like the GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas Blair. Hopefully you can stay all snow down there. Would be nice if we could all relish in this festivus miracle Ackwaves is totally done for snow at your expense. You better wish him a VERY happy Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone! I don't think I need to read through the last few posts to know what is going on. exciting stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Santa was very very good to us this morning. I think I'm more excited than when the kids come thrashing down around 6:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ackwaves is totally done for snow at your expense. You better wish him a VERY happy Christmas. I wish him the happiest XMAS he ever had. Merry XMAS, Will....getting excited, starting to look like a classic. I doubt I beat the 26" from last February but winds should be more intense and temperatures much colder. Crazy storm but everything is lining up nicely, radar looks good early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ackwaves is totally done for snow at your expense. You better wish him a VERY happy Christmas. Well he did get 7.5 inches last week while I got partly cloudy..so sharing the wealth isn't a bad thing What areas are jackpot as currently modelled? Interior SE MAss..or more your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wish him the happiest XMAS he ever had. Merry XMAS, Will....getting excited, starting to look like a classic. I doubt I beat the 26" from last February but winds should be more intense and temperatures much colder. Crazy storm but everything is lining up nicely, radar looks good early. I have a feeling this will match anything we had last winter lol. The most I got in any of those storms was 16" so hopefully we can match that at least with much higher winds and duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wish him the happiest XMAS he ever had. Merry XMAS, Will....getting excited, starting to look like a classic. I doubt I beat the 26" from last February but winds should be more intense and temperatures much colder. Crazy storm but everything is lining up nicely, radar looks good early. Merry Christmas Nate!! If anyne is getting your Feb 2010 26" fetish...its probably either me or Kevin (probably me because I have a huge upslope advantage on him)...but I'm not going there yet. I'll be happy with 12"...no reason to go to insane yet, even if it is Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas Blair. Hopefully you can stay all snow down there. Would be nice if we could all relish in this festivus miracle Thanks. I'm not in the snow zone this time but maybe i'll get some good winds. i love watching the ocean take rich peoples homes out to sea. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ackwaves is totally done for snow at your expense. You better wish him a VERY happy Christmas. LMAO! Good . I now have someone to blame. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ray's area could jackpot too...or even BOS....do not discount a slightly further E solution yet either. It very easy to get obsessed with the OP runs...but they can over trend very easily...we've seen this happen many times before as I already said earlier in this thread, but just for the early risiers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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