XMAS Miracle: Blizzard of 2010 Lead-in Dialogue

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm just glad that when I said I was calling nceps bluff on discounting the gfs/nam when nothing obvious could be seen as really wrong at 18z it worked out. I have a suspicion it would have been preacher kevs signature if this had gone east 1k miles

[OKpowdah]

And just remember..I started the thread that got this beast going...Hallelujah my people

Nah, it was ETauntonMA. That was the thread that started it all. I told everyone, I got good vibes from that thread!

[weatherwiz]

For those who want to make snowfall maps I made a thread just so they don't start getting into the way of the discussion threads and so they don't get buried. Then if anyone has questions or whatever about people's maps it's all in one place.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/6114-member-snowfall-maps-for-122610-storm/page__gopid__180786#entry180786

[NorEastermass128]

50s next weekend?! Had to do it

[Organizing Low]

Anyone mind describing Euro QPF up through VT? I sorted through the posts and couldn't really find anything.. tombo's map sort of cuts off.

if you split VT in 1/4 with lines going from SW to NE

northernmost gets <0.1

next down gets 0.1-0.25

middle gets 0.25-0.5

southern gets 0.5-0.75

[ski MRG]

Gold, frankincense and heavy heavy snow.

As we thought.

Quite a nice Christmas Day. Some snow on the ground, a big storm on the doorstep, good friends coming for dinner, nice fresh Ham in the oven, kids playing with toys while Tony Bennet is singing Christmas songs in the background. One to remember for sure.

[Collinsville]

Dear God this will be awesome!!!

Thank you Satan!!

[weatherwiz]

I'm just glad that when I said I was calling nceps bluff on discounting the gfs/nam when nothing obvious could be seen as really wrong at 18z it worked out. I have a suspicion it would have been preacher kevs signature if this had gone east 1k miles

I was talking to someone on the phone today who was trying to get a hold of me about that...he said he couldn't believe what happened regarding that...saying what they said made no sense as to what happened with the outcome it was showing. Maybe I can see if he can posts some thoughts on that at some point or something.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm just glad that when I said I was calling nceps bluff on discounting the gfs/nam when nothing obvious could be seen as really wrong at 18z it worked out. I have a suspicion it would have been preacher kevs signature if this had gone east 1k miles

I seriously wonder if they were so shocked at the sudden jump west that they made up that whole init. error scheme. Esp since everything else came west immed. thereafter. Sort of like a coverup since all foreign guidance was so far east.

I don't buy that whole story they threw out yesterday.I think they were embarrassed and shocked and used it as a cover and it came back to bite them

[BostonWX]

I seriously wonder if they were so shocked at the sudden jump west that they made up that whole init. error scheme. Esp since everything else came west immed. thereafter. Sort of like a coverup since all foreign guidance was so far east.

I don't buy that whole story they threw out yesterday.I think they were embarrassed and shocked and used it as a cover and it came back to bite them

I agree. It seemed a little weird.

[ski MRG]

I seriously wonder if they were so shocked at the sudden jump west that they made up that whole init. error scheme. Esp since everything else came west immed. thereafter. Sort of like a coverup since all foreign guidance was so far east.

I don't buy that whole story they threw out yesterday.I think they were embarrassed and shocked and used it as a cover and it came back to bite them

Do you think this goes to the highest levels of the government. This could blow the lid off everything.

[Organizing Low]

I seriously wonder if they were so shocked at the sudden jump west that they made up that whole init. error scheme. Esp since everything else came west immed. thereafter. Sort of like a coverup since all foreign guidance was so far east.

I don't buy that whole story they threw out yesterday.I think they were embarrassed and shocked and used it as a cover and it came back to bite them

you'll probably get flamed for that, and ill probably get flamed for this.....but i agree

actually my theory is they didnt want to have local NWS forecasters have to pore over grids on xmas eve afternoon shifts....when models were at serious odds, would have been a long afternoon of coordinating.

they knew that the overnight shift could handle it and there would still be ample time.

[Damage In Tolland]

Do you think this goes to the highest levels of the government. This could blow the lid off everything.

There's almost no doubt that is exactly what happened yesterday

[WeatherX]

Any ideas on how to measure this tomorrow? Euro has 60kt gusts along the coast......

[CharlestonNYC]

if you split VT in 1/4 with lines going from SW to NE

northernmost gets <0.1

next down gets 0.1-0.25

middle gets 0.25-0.5

southern gets 0.5-0.75

Cannot believe I'm driving up to Stowe from NYC tomorrow until Wednesday....ugh. Poor timing.

[skierinvermont]

Cannot believe I'm driving up to Stowe from NYC tomorrow until Wednesday....ugh. Poor timing.

Me too.. thanks for the info Organizing Low. I'm leaving tomorrow for Sugarbush just south of Stowe. I'm hoping the peaks can pull out 6"+ 3-6 valleys

[CharlestonNYC]

Me too.. thanks for the info Organizing Low. I'm leaving tomorrow for Sugarbush just south of Stowe. I'm hoping the peaks can pull out 6"+ 3-6 valleys

Would be really sweet if very cold temps and orthographic lift could squeeze out some surprises for us!!! Any chance of that happening?

[Boston-winter08]

Joe Joyce posted this in his blog this morning...one of the better non-Barry write-ups I've perused on the site...I think it's real good:

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2010/12/25/tracking-a-major-winter-storm/

[CoastalWx]

I think the two jackpot areas seems legit. As the low slows when it gets east of NJ, the will probably promote very heavy snow along NJ into NYC and this mid level fronto area/deformation will probably pivot into God's country. I could envision an arc of strong waa precip that will start to turn cyclonically into sne pivoting up from the south of sne, tomorrow. It looks like the bombing low will sort of cause mid level lows to jump east, and that will probably try and prevent thr dryslot from getting too far into eastern mass. The one thing that models show is a strong band signal near any CF over ern mass. I guess this sets up close to the coast..maybe near BOS or Ray, but that will have to be watched.

SREFS take the low seemingly near ACK.

[MaineJayhawk]

Would be really sweet if very cold temps and orthographic lift could squeeze out some surprises for us!!! Any chance of that happening?

Here's BTVs forecast map.

[OKpowdah]

From the 12z NAM:

[Typhoon Tip]

I would not shock me if the 18z NAM rolls in with over 3" liq equiv at BOS on the FRH grids...

You can just feel it that the models have all this gloriously deep low intensity while being negligent about QPF. Either way, as is does seem a little light compared to the synopsis of the event et al.

As others have alluded, should this get organized into meso bands associated with frontenic axis (and there are products out there that attempt to output frontogenic bands based on respective model inputs) there will DEFINITELY be totals exceeding the generalize regional outlooks.

G-wave phenomena may also take place; there may carry along with it a risk for some wind pulsing with all these intense jet maxes at the respective sigma layers available to mix down. I believe I saw 75kts at 850mb in a snap emergent CCB and I am sure that gets into the 950mb layer at 60kts at least.

Also, there is a subtle tendency in some of these global models to slow the departure of this so it could linger some into latter Monday. The UKMET is outright taking 24 hours out of our lives on this in that 12z run. I suspect 12z's commute Monday morning will be nearly impossible for I-95 and I-495, and the Pike and so forth. This strikes it's greatest blow overnight Sunday night but at some point the onslaught of snow and wind would [probably] even affect the DPW's ability to manage the roadways.

New Englanders are iron hulled about these sorts of thing so unless it does a real stall like a '78 scenario travel would probably resume normalcy by later Tuesday into Wed...

What is interesting also is the the bevvy of 12z guidance is trying to flag a cold recession and a 2 to perhaps 3 day period of substantial above normal temperatures resulting by next weekend. The idea of that is not unprecidented following these sorts of bigger events. Come to think of it ... speaking of '78; that year had a big EC event followed by an inland monster that resulted in a big warm rain event up and down the East Coast. A week later came the big blizzard.

Hint hint: PNA climbs to +1SD while the NOA is residually negative: Guess what....

[ski MRG]

There's almost no doubt that is exactly what happened yesterday

Let's talk some more about the heavy snow. What are we thinking about onset? 2-4 PM here I'm thinking. Did you bail on Butternut?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I seriously wonder if they were so shocked at the sudden jump west that they made up that whole init. error scheme. Esp since everything else came west immed. thereafter. Sort of like a coverup since all foreign guidance was so far east.

I don't buy that whole story they threw out yesterday.I think they were embarrassed and shocked and used it as a cover and it came back to bite them

Kev I don't think they made up the errors themselves. They were there in the obs/RAOB BUT they grossly overestimated the effect. Trust me as someone who will stare at a model for a storm 300 miles OTS to watch it creep back and still miss because I enjoy watching the changes.... they got hung up in assuming a few errors at init means huge changes. There are ALWAYS changes at 6h that look like they can have a big impact but most of the time they mute out quickly over 6-18 hours. I'm sure it's in the math behind the models. I've always found positional changes are much more significant than strength and it was very very clear even at 12z yesterday there were very minor positional errors which is why I said what I said. I just didn't see the big error they were talking about and yes I do think you are right in the sense that they did not want every forecaster from NC to ME to go for a blizzard if there was a potential problem. In some respects if you look at the 18z even yesterday vs 12z this morning that was wise down the coast, there were hints at 12z/18z yesterday there could be a blasting way way south and that has been steadily shifting NNE. I don't know, going to be an interesting analysis later.

Props to Harvey Leonard for ignoring it. He was "balls out' as Ryan says even at 4pm yesterday. Almost everyone here that I read was saying going with the EC/ENS.

[Damage In Tolland]

Let's talk some more about the heavy snow. What are we thinking about onset? 2-4 PM here I'm thinking. Did you bail on Butternut?

I have to wait till X-mas dinner tonight in South Windsor to give the entire fam(wifes side) the update. They'll leave it to me to make the call. If it's just light snow that starts around noon or 1:00 I'd say we'll do it. But, some of them have to drive back to Norfolk, Mass afterwards..and that could get dicey and us driving back to Tolland and others to South Windsor. If we tube at 11. We'll go..but if it's 2:00 I may recommend we postpone. Tough call

[HoarfrostHubb]

This is my favorite event since watching Eastern/American Wx and it hasn't even started!

Love how the NWS has preperation recommendations listed.

I'm a little drunk attm

Happy Christmas (or whatever!)

[ski MRG]

I think the two jackpot areas seems legit. As the low slows when it gets east of NJ, the will probably promote very heavy snow along NJ into NYC and this mid level fronto area/deformation will probably pivot into God's country. I could envision an arc of strong waa precip that will start to turn cyclonically into sne pivoting up from the south of sne, tomorrow. It looks like the bombing low will sort of cause mid level lows to jump east, and that will probably try and prevent thr dryslot from getting too far into eastern mass. The one thing that models show is a strong band signal near any CF over ern mass. I guess this sets up close to the coast..maybe near BOS or Ray, but that will have to be watched.

SREFS take the low seemingly near ACK.

It's this period that I am most excited about. I think that keeps me in the soup for a prolonged period. Hope to rack it up.

[nutmegfriar]

Me too.. thanks for the info Organizing Low. I'm leaving tomorrow for Sugarbush just south of Stowe. I'm hoping the peaks can pull out 6"+ 3-6 valleys

It always snows in Stowe.

[wxeyeNH]

Quick Question for you guys referring to God's Country. Do you mean the Berkshires or us up here in the hills and mountains of C/N NE? Always confuses me!

[Clinch Leatherwood]

NAM nudging the western ridge east a little but more than the amount the ridging on the east was flattened a little - timing differences but the net effect is like squeezing a sponge. More to ring out.