OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sam, I think your map is quite reasonable and spot on. Thanks! Banding in the 12+ region over eastern MA could definitely result in some totals nearing 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ORH is at 0.5" right now...but the airport is missing data for Dec 23rd when they got like an inch...so they are probably more like 1.5" If someone from BOX sees this, maybe they can enter it in...at the very min they had another half inch that morning. I think I had 1.3" total for the event between 22-23rd. Hopefully it will be near or over 20" by the time we get to the 28th. An awful awful beginning is going to get made up for in very, very short order. I've had 3.3 inches and a chunk of that was in November lol. Heavy HEAVY snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is it because the tip of the weenie straddles right over Chesterfield? That is precisely why and seems like an often verified outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What a putrid CT River Valley shadow on the MM5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I've really worked hard over the years to not get overly amped as it often ends in disaster. Expectations held to high so even when a decent snowfall was the outcome a sense of disatisfaction tainted the experience. That said, this one looks like a solid hit and even though the snow is not flying yet I am.lol Also, kudos to you and the American Team for keeping the board operating smoothly during the first real test. Nice work. Thank you. I appreciate the kind words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighPressure Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 From the OKX discussion.... "THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE THAT THE TRACK OF THIS STORM CAN CHANGE ONCE AGAIN...RESULTING IN A DIFFERENCE FORECAST. PLAY STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST DETAILS." Rumor has it this guy is still single....commitment issues! Don't forget to "play" stay tuned as he suggests! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What a putrid CT River Valley shadow on the MM5 Scoob 40 with 5.5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Scoob 40 with 5.5? Lol...I doubt its as bad as the model shows. Esp if larger scale banding forces the issue over them...ala Feb 5, 2001. I wonder if Ray is finally going to get his jackpot of 18"+ 12-14" is a lock for TOL...can't go higher there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 An awful awful beginning is going to get made up for in very, very short order. I've had 3.3 inches and a chunk of that was in November lol. Heavy HEAVY snow You are a steamroller today man, love it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just think at this time yesterday the famous euro gave cape cod 3-6" and we were being told to discount entirely the only two models that gave a hit. 24 hours later storm of the decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What a putrid CT River Valley shadow on the MM5 lol, I saw that. And to think that I'm considering leaving Boston late tomorrow for the Valley instead of riding things out here. Doesn't it all usually come down to where deformation bands set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just think at this time yesterday the famous euro gave cape cod 3-6" and we were being told to discount entirely the only two models that gave a hit. 24 hours later storm of the decade Theres 24 more hours for it to go away. Gota luv the lock it in statements. Looks exciting but its going to come down to nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just think at this time yesterday the famous euro gave cape cod 3-6" and we were being told to discount entirely the only two models that gave a hit. 24 hours later storm of the decade This will definitely be a good post mortem case study for the models....this is probably the biggest short term model failure in the past 5 years. Perhaps since March 2001. At least on the east coast during winter storm. Its funny how the models played around. The Euro had this solution pegged 108-144h out...but it failed miserably in the 72-96 hour range. GFS probably gets the win for the 72h solution as it was the first to show it at 12z yesterday and then others followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lol...I doubt its as bad as the model shows. Esp if larger scale banding forces the issue over them...ala Feb 5, 2001. I wonder if Ray is finally going to get his jackpot of 18"+ 12-14" is a lock for TOL...can't go higher there. I have a feeling the jackpot area is going to be west..Dare I say it..God's country.. I'd bet we see 20 inch up and around that general area. Yeah no matter what happens ..even if an intense CCB set up over me for 14 hrs..I'd still only get 14.. Lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Scoob 40 with 5.5? Wouldn't bet against it based upon past history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anyone mind describing Euro QPF up through VT? I sorted through the posts and couldn't really find anything.. tombo's map sort of cuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lol...I doubt its as bad as the model shows. Esp if larger scale banding forces the issue over them...ala Feb 5, 2001. I wonder if Ray is finally going to get his jackpot of 18"+ 12-14" is a lock for TOL...can't go higher there. Even at a joyous time like this. Priceless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I have a feeling the jackpot area is going to be west..Dare I say it..God's country.. I'd bet we see 20 inch up and around that general area. Yeah no matter what happens ..even if an intense CCB set up over me for 14 hrs..I'd still only get 14.. Lock it There could be a couple areas that jackpot. GC will have the leftover banding from SE NY and NNJ and W CT up there, but the dynamics will definitely shift east as the low keeps deepening, so there will probably be a big area of snow somewhere between ORH-ASH-BOS But we still have a few model runs to sort out where that might be most likely to set up. SREF probs are very high for eastern MA on big snow so that is often a good flag at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I went and saw the Rev today. Here is what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This will definitely be a good post mortem case study for the models....this is probably the biggest short term model failure in the past 5 years. Perhaps since March 2001. At least on the east coast during winter something strange took place. I half wonder if there was a QC type problem with data coming in that got fed to everyone for a few runs. All of a sudden at 1450z yest hpc sends out the message about issues and from that second on every run of every model around the world came west....even the nogaps. Once the low develops I will feel a lot better. This one has been so erratic and somehow it's still a day away swear we have been following this for 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I went and saw the Rev today. Here is what I saw. And just remember..I started the thread that got this beast going...Hallelujah my people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its fitting that the Rev delivered the goods on the 00z Christmas run...its that time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This will definitely be a good post mortem case study for the models....this is probably the biggest short term model failure in the past 5 years. Perhaps since March 2001. At least on the east coast during winter storm. Its funny how the models played around. The Euro had this solution pegged 108-144h out...but it failed miserably in the 72-96 hour range. GFS probably gets the win for the 72h solution as it was the first to show it at 12z yesterday and then others followed. A few days ago I was talking with Logan11 about an old Met we grew up listening to, Ray Falconer. He was an excellent forecaster and he always stressed that big East Coast storms were a fickle breed and one could never be quite sure what would happen. I think I commented at the time something like " that was an era without such sophisticated computer modeling though". I hope old Ray is looking down and having a good chuckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Please for the love of all that is well don't jinx it with a radio show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 And just remember..I started the thread that got this beast going...Hallelujah my people I want to be nice as it's Christmas day but you sang about 10 different tunes on this one. You and SnowNh.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its fitting that the Rev delivered the goods on the 00z Christmas run...its that time of the year. It's that time of year, Will...this is probably the most magical scenario I've ever seen unfold. Compared to this, last year's major blizzards were well forecast and easy to predict with the strong STJ. BTW 12z GFS nails NYC...do you see that 2/06 type of banding occurring here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its fitting that the Rev delivered the goods on the 00z Christmas run...its that time of the year. Gold, frankincense and heavy heavy snow. As we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 new from NCEP: THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR IN TRACK AND INTENSITY TO THE 00Z RUN AND BY ITSELF COULD BE CONSIDERED A GOOD FORECAST CHOICE. SINCE IT IS NOW RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ALL THE OTHER MODELS ANY COMBINATION WOULD LIKELY GET A PRETTY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR THE STORM. AS THE STORM PASSES OFF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...THE 12Z RUN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS VERSION AND SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES THE 12Z UKMET STALLING THE LOW FOR A FULL DAY...IMPLYING SLOWER ENDING TIMES FOR SNOW ACROSS EASTERN CT. WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF ALL 12Z MODELS...MOST COMBINATION OF ANY AND EACH WOULD PROBABLY MAKE FOR A GOOD BLEND ESP THE SNOWIER MODELS FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION. Money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OK, I'm out until later...time to take the short drive up to Princeton for Christmas dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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