weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ct valley shadowing ftl. :-( I'd be pretty pissed if the GFS was right im in between bdl, hvn, dxr....just in case you are bored Here are numbers for HVN: 12z NAM first 12z GFS second 1.26'' 1.05'' All snow on both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Down in NJ the QPF bombs were gone I guess, so it's more down into the major but not historic setup of 1-1.3", it would appear based on one of the maps posted we have a little bit of a sucker hole up here that isn't quite as high as that but let's see what the pro's say. This NW trend is great in all, but if it ends up tucking towards AC and then scratches ENE they'll get the heaviest snow totals probably. We ideal would want it to either cut up a little further east or northeast, JMHO. What areas should be most concerned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.25 over almost all of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here are numbers for HVN: 12z NAM first 12z GFS second 1.26'' 1.05'' All snow on both models. thanks paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Does the Euro and/or Ukie present any mixing issues anywhere? NAM mainly kept these issues on the Cape while GFS brought issues back as far west as GON. WOuld like to know before I make a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.25 over almost all of CT This is getting better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 im in between bdl, hvn, dxr....just in case you are bored BDR would be closest to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 thanks paul You're welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd be pretty pissed if the GFS was right Here are numbers for HVN: 12z NAM first 12z GFS second 1.26'' 1.05'' All snow on both models. im pretty sure it has the right idea...you will be in a relative min...probably even out to kevin to an extent. The only way to erase that would be to get into mesoscale banding...then bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM looks slightly better for SE Mass but I don't think the track is going to deviate much from this point on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is getting better and better. Yeah, at this point I'm pretty confident it isn't going to be a whiff. I'm just trying to lock in double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 BDR would be closest to you In that case: BDR 12z NAM/12z GFS 1.35'' 1.12'' Of course all no and no mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.25 over almost all of CT Tombo wrong? Bad tombo. So are you thinking 1-2 feet all of CT? Isolated 25"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sounds like it's almost exactly as 00z was trackwise except it cut qpf on the cape only.. Sounds like 1-1.5 for all of SNE I bet we mix at the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, at this point I'm pretty confident it isn't going to be a whiff. I'm just trying to lock in double digits. 3-6" would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 im pretty sure it has the right idea...you will be in a relative min...probably even out to kevin to an extent. The only way to erase that would be to get into mesoscale banding...then bets are off. Yeah that's when I've been figuring, I certainly don't think I'm going to see anywhere near a foot, but I think I should be able to get a good 6-8'' or so. Unless as we get closer and once models have a little better handle on where the mesobanding will setup I certainly won't see anything impressive. GFS seems to have a very good max to my north and west and the NAM has one off to the east...maybe they can meet in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If only they'd let me write the afternoon disco at BOX today 000 FXUS61 KBOX 251726 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 436 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BRING DRY COLD WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. MY ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS CERTAIN...BIBLICAL SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW SHOULD NEVER PULL AWAY WITH DEADLY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOREVER. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WOULD BE NICE BUT THAT WILL NOT DEVELOP DURING MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FAILS TO BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ENDS UP SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE HISTRIONICS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS MID-MORNING UPDATE CLEARLY COMPOSED BY A GROUP OF BONEHEADS. RELATIVELY BORING WEATHER TODAY. WE STILL EXPECT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND GIVE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER US A NUDGE EAST. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWEST AND TAP INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...THE MORNING SHOULD HAVE SOME SUNSHINE. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN BY THIS EVENING. STAYED CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE FOR TODAY IF I KNEW WHAT THAT WAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS INTO 878MB CORE AND THEN MOVES TO THE NC/SC COAST BY 12Z. ALL MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THIS PART OF THE SCENARIO. NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW BUT I THINK THAT IS BULL**** INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER THICKEN DURING THE NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS DRY...AND FORECAST LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SATURATE THE LOWER AIRMASS. SO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...AT MOST A FEW BLIZZARDS PERHAPS LATE AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- HIGHLIGHTS *100 PERCENT CERTITUDE THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WILL CRIPPLE THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 100 YEARS. 1220 PM UPDATE... 12Z NAM GFS AND RGEM MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME SCENARIO. RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DENUDES NEW ENGLAND OFF THE SURFACE OF THE EARTH. WHILE I THINK THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE THE STORM WILL STILL BE WORKING ITS WAY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET TO REALLY ASSERT THIS MAY HAPPEN. INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 565 MB TO 972 MB AT POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH SO WILL BE FAVORING THE DEEPER RANGE OF THINKING HERE . PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN EVER FORECAST BEFORE BUT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAP WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 4 PM AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO REFLEXT THE 40 FEET TOTALS. I WILL L BE GOING WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE UNITED STATES... PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... …WAS DELETED BECAUSE I DID NOT LIKE IT AND IT SEEMED WRONG COMPARED TO WHAT I AM SEEING THE GUIDANCE -- End Changed Discussion -- && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF PLANES CRASHING ASHORE INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATE WITH BLIZZARDS AND METEORITE DEBRIS. LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW MA AND SOUTHERN NH DUE TO PROXIMITY TO A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ETERNAL SHUTDOWN. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHOULD SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING INTO S COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN PUSHING N TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST MOST OF MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY N-NE WINDS SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT TO SHIFT TO NW MONDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 50 MPH OR MORE ALONG THE COAST WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN FOR THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS. MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO S CENTRAL NH TO NE CT...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY LINGER ACROSS E MA/RI AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. LAST TO IMPROVE WILL BE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO UNFORTUNATELY SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE OUTER MA COASTAL WATERS THOUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS DO NOT COUNT. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHOULD SEE HURRICANE FORCE N WINDS WITH EMBEDDED SNOWADOS DEVELOPING SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO NW DURING MONDAY. STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS PROBABLE AS WELL UP TO 150 KT. HAVE ISSUED A CERTAIN DOOM WARNING FOR THIS EVENT. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL DATA AND THE SIZE OF MY STORM-ERECTION TO DERIVE WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE 1500+ FOOT RANGE. WILL SEE VISIBILITIES LOWERING IN SNOW LATE SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MOVING ACROSS ALL THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL SEE NO SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY...NW HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET INTO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY OF 2012. ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN HISTRIONICALLY STRONG SMALL CRITERIA. SEAS UP TO 700-10000 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE…NOT. WEDNESDAY...P-WAVE WIND CRITERIA GUSTS COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS AT OR ABOVE 500 FEET ALSO CONTINUE ON THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY E AND S OF THE FORMER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET LOCATIONS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOODING IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH UNHERALDED SEVERITY ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING WILL NOT EVEN DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL STORM THAT APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT TIME FRAME BECAUSE IT IS JUST GOING TO HAPPEN THAT WAY. WHILE THE STORM IS MODELED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...I DO NOT LIKE THAT. THEREFOR COMBINATION OF STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE WINDS AND BUILDING 1500+ FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE A STORM SURGE THAT COULD REMOVE CAPE COD AND MOST COASTAL COMMUNITIES OFF THE FACE OF THE PLANET. IN ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... -- Changed Discussion -- CT... BLIZZARD WARNING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004. MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026. NH...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-012-015. RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007. MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250- 255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254. -- End Changed Discussion -- && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEVIN NEAR TERM...KEVIN SHORT TERM...KEVIN LONG TERM...KEVIN AVIATION...KEVIN MARINE...KEVIN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... YUP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 3-6" would be nice. What's your take for our area BIrving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 000 FXUS61 KBOX 251726 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 436 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BRING DRY COLD WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. MY ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS CERTAIN...BIBLICAL SNOW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW SHOULD NEVER PULL AWAY WITH DEADLY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOREVER. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WOULD BE NICE BUT THAT WILL NOT DEVELOP DURING MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FAILS TO BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ENDS UP SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE HISTRIONICS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS MID-MORNING UPDATE CLEARLY COMPOSED BY A GROUP OF BONEHEADS. RELATIVELY BORING WEATHER TODAY. WE STILL EXPECT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND GIVE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER US A NUDGE EAST. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER FLOW SOUTHWEST AND TAP INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...THE MORNING SHOULD HAVE SOME SUNSHINE. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN BY THIS EVENING. STAYED CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE FOR TODAY IF I KNEW WHAT THAT WAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS INTO 878MB CORE AND THEN MOVES TO THE NC/SC COAST BY 12Z. ALL MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THIS PART OF THE SCENARIO. NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW BUT I THINK THAT IS BULL**** INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER THICKEN DURING THE NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS DRY...AND FORECAST LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SATURATE THE LOWER AIRMASS. SO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...AT MOST A FEW BLIZZARDS PERHAPS LATE AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- HIGHLIGHTS *100 PERCENT CERTITUDE THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WILL CRIPPLE THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 100 YEARS. 1220 PM UPDATE... 12Z NAM GFS AND RGEM MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME SCENARIO. RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DENUDES NEW ENGLAND OFF THE SURFACE OF THE EARTH. WHILE I THINK THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE THE STORM WILL STILL BE WORKING ITS WAY CLOSE TO NANTUCKET TO REALLY ASSERT THIS MAY HAPPEN. INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 565 MB TO 972 MB AT POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH SO WILL BE FAVORING THE DEEPER RANGE OF THINKING HERE . PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN EVER FORECAST BEFORE BUT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAP WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 4 PM AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO REFLEXT THE 40 FEET TOTALS. I WILL L BE GOING WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE UNITED STATES... PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... …WAS DELETED BECAUSE I DID NOT LIKE IT AND IT SEEMED WRONG COMPARED TO WHAT I AM SEEING THE GUIDANCE -- End Changed Discussion -- && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF PLANES CRASHING ASHORE INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATE WITH BLIZZARDS AND METEORITE DEBRIS. LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW MA AND SOUTHERN NH DUE TO PROXIMITY TO A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ETERNAL SHUTDOWN. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHOULD SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING INTO S COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN PUSHING N TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST MOST OF MONDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY N-NE WINDS SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT TO SHIFT TO NW MONDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 50 MPH OR MORE ALONG THE COAST WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN FOR THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS. MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO S CENTRAL NH TO NE CT...BUT MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY LINGER ACROSS E MA/RI AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. LAST TO IMPROVE WILL BE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO UNFORTUNATELY SLOWLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE OUTER MA COASTAL WATERS THOUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS DO NOT COUNT. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHOULD SEE HURRICANE FORCE N WINDS WITH EMBEDDED SNOWADOS DEVELOPING SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO NW DURING MONDAY. STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS PROBABLE AS WELL UP TO 150 KT. HAVE ISSUED A CERTAIN DOOM WARNING FOR THIS EVENT. USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL DATA AND MY THE SIZE OF MY STORM-ERECTION TO DERIVE WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE 1500+ FOOT RANGE. WILL SEE VISIBILITIES LOWERING IN SNOW LATE SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MOVING ACROSS ALL THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL SEE NO SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY...NW HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY E AND S OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET INTO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY OF 2012. ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN HISTRIONICALLY STRONG SMALL CRITERIA. SEAS UP TO 700-10000 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE…NOT. WEDNESDAY...P-WAVE WIND CRITERIA GUSTS COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS AT OR ABOVE 500 FEET ALSO CONTINUE ON THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY E AND S OF THE FORMER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET LOCATIONS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOODING IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH UNHERALDED SEVERITY ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING WILL NOT EVEN DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL STORM THAT APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT TIME FRAME BECAUSE IT IS JUST GOING TO HAPPEN THAT WAY. WHILE THE STORM IS MODELED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...I DO NOT LIKE THAT. THEREFOR COMBINATION OF STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE WINDS AND BUILDING 1500+ FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE A STORM SURGE THAT COULD REMOVE CAPE COD AND MOST COASTAL COMMUNITIES OFF THE FACE OF THE PLANET. IN ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... -- Changed Discussion -- CT... BLIZZARD WARNING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004. MA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026. NH...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-012-015. RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007. MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250- 255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254. -- End Changed Discussion -- && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEVIN NEAR TERM...KEVIN SHORT TERM...KEVIN LONG TERM...KEVIN AVIATION...KEVIN MARINE...KEVIN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Put that up there with the AFD for Katrina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, at this point I'm pretty confident it isn't going to be a whiff. I'm just trying to lock in double digits. I might not know much but anytime I see low scooting out under LI good things happen up here. Make it a 970mb low and you've got a party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My favorite part of this was the Certain Doom Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro looks like it would have intense banding signal for central/eastern MA down to RI and NE CT at 42-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hey paul can you run the gfs bufkit numbers for KEEN Dude, you're in Swanzey right now? I'm like 10 minutes north of you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro looks like it would have intense banding signal for central/eastern MA down to RI and NE CT at 42-48 hours. Could you give QPF for, say, KSFM? TYIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Think you see rain up there? I'm pretty sure I would here. It looks like 95-100% snow. freezing line is around Kenmore Sq lol.....so I think it's a pretty strong snow bomb signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro looks like it would have intense banding signal for central/eastern MA down to RI and NE CT at 42-48 hours. Isn't that about near where the NAM had it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 How is that possible? I drove out rte 6 to Providence yesterday and saw zero snow in the woods out that way. You must have been in your own micro climate and picked up just enough to hang on. Awesome for you! We had scarcely a dusting in some spots this morning. Was out in Swansea ma. last night,and they still had about an inch where I was. BTW, What chances do you think you and I have with Mixing issues? I will be leaving for western Ma tomorrow morning for 2 nights but will be on the board on and off. I will be looking to you for snow OBS updates for our area. I will take a pic, and you know the obs will be flying as far as the weenies get chucked, one beer per inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dude, you're in Swanzey right now? I'm like 10 minutes north of you lol Swanzy is a fooking snow magent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Put that up there with the AFD for Katrina Planes crashing and meteorite debris? I did a double take when I read that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Could you give QPF for, say, KSFM? TYIA 1.1"ish? Maybe 1.25"...its a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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