weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah I was thinking about to myself..Are Ryan and Wiz gonna get downsloped to some degree? I guess it's possible 20's for temps from start to finish with this thing? GFS is kind of hinting at this...kind of worrying me a bit. It's a HUGE difference QPF wise than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah I was thinking about to myself..Are Ryan and Wiz gonna get downsloped to some degree? I guess it's possible 20's for temps from start to finish with this thing? I'm not sure it's downsloping, but perhaps mesoscale subsidence. This could set up anywhere, that probably will be more of a nowcast thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well I hope Will and Scooter are right about the Euro ensembles still holding onto the ice threat since the op is brutal torch JB says 96 all over again The euro thaw later this week is also a sign some things are changing. New York could hit 60 on New Years day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Will, how's the MM5 usually do under 48hrs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well I hope Will and Scooter are right about the Euro ensembles still holding onto the ice threat since the op is brutal torch JB says 96 all over again The euro thaw later this week is also a sign some things are changing. New York could hit 60 on New Years day Let those of us that want to enjoy this special moment enjoy it. Start a torch thread and hangout there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm not sure it's downsloping, but perhaps mesoscale subsidence. This could set up anywhere, that probably will be more of a nowcast thing. That would make more sense then, for downslopping that would be more of low-level trajectory correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Let those of us that want to enjoy this special moment enjoy it. Start a torch thread and hangout there. LOL. It's a definite worry for later next week. Will said this morning the ensembles kept us colder..but the op would even wipe out your snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 check out the orographic snow hole in CT Nice convective feedback bomb over you, spread that out for truer look and that hole is reduced. Meso maxes per climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Will, how's the MM5 usually do under 48hrs?? I think either Ginx or Messenger were saying recently that it's been doing well and they're checking it out more. Not 100% on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think either Ginx or Messenger were saying recently that it's been doing well and they're checking it out more. Not 100% on that. Not me. Was one of the boston met's favorite models until it missed like 75 of 76 straight storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I threw out 93 references this past week with the triple phase, looks close, I am wondering if winds are being underplayed, not seeing any inversion. Would a triple phase lead to more snow or does it just describe how the storm is moving in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LOL. It's a definite worry for later next week. Will said this morning the ensembles kept us colder..but the op would even wipe out your snowpack I'm really not concerned. We've entered into a new regime of over-performing cold. Look for the extent of the warmth to be scaled back as we go along. Hey, Merry Christmas Kevin !!! It was really nice to meet you and so many others this past year and I look forward to many more good times here and at GTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think either Ginx or Messenger were saying recently that it's been doing well and they're checking it out more. Not 100% on that. Now that is about as perfect as one could want. http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/12km.slp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Now that is about as perfect as one could want. http://cheget.msrc.s...p/12km.slp.html Crazy...flying north, slams on the breaks and makes a sharp right turn along 40n....perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Biggie experience ECT RI Ct Maxes, East Killingly Thompson Woodstock Putnam Canterbury Sterling Downsloped Plaiinfield Preston Plain. Griswold Lisbon RI Maxes. Foster Cumberland Burriville Downsloped no concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Now that is about as perfect as one could want. http://cheget.msrc.s...p/12km.slp.html Merry Christmas!!! Holy Cow!! Love that little left hook/stall of the NJ coast !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Now that is about as perfect as one could want. http://cheget.msrc.s...p/12km.slp.html Has me more excited than watching late night cinemax when I was 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Biggie experience ECT RI Ct Maxes, East Killingly Thompson Woodstock Putnam Canterbury Sterling Downsloped Plaiinfield Preston Plain. Griswold Lisbon RI Maxes. Foster Cumberland Burriville Downsloped no concern Steve, I'm worried it won't snow here. Do you think I could see some flurries at least? Merry Christmas!! Though nothing has verified yet, this is what I envisioned the theme of our Winter being. Big Winter, big big Winter !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LOL. It's a definite worry for later next week. Will said this morning the ensembles kept us colder..but the op would even wipe out your snowpack Even if that happens 10-15 days down the line our strong neg nao will be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Someone just tikd me on FB that BOX is upgrading to BLizzard watches soon per new AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Will, how's the MM5 usually do under 48hrs?? Best under 24 Scooter and that's thermal profiles, it's meso stuff is good under 15 especially,from my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As Scott (messenger) would say "for posterity." In this timeframe the model occasional pulls off a winna !!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1220 PM UPDATE... 12Z NAM GFS AND RGEM MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME SCENARIO. RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WORKING ITS WAY CLOSE TO BUT SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 965 MB TO 972 MB AT POINT OFCLOSEST APPROACH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THANCURRENTLY FORECAST BUT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAP WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 4 PM AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WE WILL LIKELY BE GOING TO EITHER A BLIZZARD WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 BOX 12:20pm AFD Long term /Sunday through Friday/... highlights *increasing chances for a significant winter storm Sunday afternoon through Monday 1220 PM update... 12z NAM GFS and rgem models all continue with the same scenario. Rapidly deepening intense low pressure south of Long Island working its way close to but southeast of Nantucket. Intensities range from 965 mb to 972 mb at Point of closest approach. Precipitation amounts should be higher than currently forecast but the snowfall accumulation map will be updated with the 4 PM afternoon package. We will likely be going to either a blizzard watch or warning for portions of the forecast area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radius Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 From BOX... .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGHLIGHTS*INCREASING CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY1220 PM UPDATE... 12Z NAM GFS AND RGEM MODELS ALL CONTINUE WITHTHE SAME SCENARIO. RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTENSE LOW PRESSURESOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WORKING ITS WAY CLOSE TO BUT SOUTHEAST OFNANTUCKET. INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 965 MB TO 972 MB AT POINT OFCLOSEST APPROACH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER THANCURRENTLY FORECAST BUT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION MAP WILL BEUPDATED WITH THE 4 PM AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WE WILL LIKELY BE GOINGTO EITHER A BLIZZARD WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW...the 12z GFS would be a CRUSHING in NW CT and W MA...looking at bufkit. Lookin at CAN is wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hope nudges of the track to the NW stop with the 12Z Euro / 18Z NAM/GFS suite, but have seen similarly intense lows come even closer to coast in the 24 hour timeframe, shifting heavier snows to midAtl / NYC / central SNE, as well as ptype issues to coastal SNE... you can see this concern in AFDs in PHL/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i actually just read that and got the chills amazing storm coming up guys this one is the real deal merry christmas everyone and about time thats all i have to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW...the 12z GFS would be a CRUSHING in NW CT and W MA...looking at bufkit. Lookin at CAN is wow. hey paul can you run the gfs bufkit numbers for KEEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Steve, I'm worried it won't snow here. Do you think I could see some flurries at least? Merry Christmas!! Though nothing has verified yet, this is what I envisioned the theme of our Winter being. Big Winter, big big Winter !!! Merry Christmas brother, no turning back now. Living for the moment, loving the dynamics depicted, now casting the mesobands is going to be fun. I am wondering if this goes down like the biggies with wind where it's windy as heck then boom heavy heavy snow within an hour of startup. By the way I held onto my snow cover by the thinest of margins in my yard, white Christmas confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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