ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Might be?lol what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm feeling the jackpot is likely in the GAY-ORH-BOX triangle and probably includes BOS....there might be another secondary max out west near God's Country, but I'm hesitant there just slightly because there are models that do not want to wrap this up as much as the GFS does. The way that 5h digs its own grave to the ENE can still make this a bit further E like the NAM/RGEM solutions and have a more compact comma head that shifts its dynamics to E MA ala Dec 9, 2005 how do u feel about mixing in SNE? dec 9th, 2005 changed me over to rain for a longgg time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Kevin How do you get zoomed in images like that of the Northeast with QPF maps, I see them posted all the time but have no clue how to get them. It's much easier on the eyes than trying to squint at the national map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Kevin How do you get zoomed in images like that of the Northeast with QPF maps, I see them posted all the time but have no clue how to get them. It's much easier on the eyes than trying to squint at the national map. Copied and pasted from DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's interesting that models are really hinting at a qpf bomb from cstl frontogenesis and also perhaps from the occlusion as well. We'll have to watch where some sort of meso subsidence zone happens in between that and deformation banding out west. Yea, I do have visions of Dec 2003 and PDII dancing in my head...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yea, I do have visions of Dec 2003 and PDII dancing in my head...... What is PDII? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Who cares what the NAM has for qpf? Has it ever been correct one way or the other on any event? We've got a slow moving snowbomb enroute I just saw three national guard trucks (not joking) must be deploying them early pre-blizzard to pull people out of their cars like 78. C130 launched from otis too, maybe flying in the bread and water. (or DHS flights like always) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What is PDII? 2/15/03. To date Boston's biggest snowfall but not deserving imho. 27.5 at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z Canadian Looks saaaaweeeeeeeeet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas the excitement is in the air here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Given the timeframe for issuance of Warnings. We know the good people at the NWS like to coordinate with surrounding Offices and usually RAMP the Watches and Warning incrementally. I know I'm stating the obvious. But to some of the newbies maybe not. Stated earlier that Blizzard Watch by sunset and by the time snowl starts falling it will be a Warning. I like most people reading this am totally glued to the computer. Heck, nobody around here to ignore or neglect. I'm getting the greatest gift and that's all I want. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm feeling the jackpot is likely in the GAY-ORH-BOX triangle and probably includes BOS....there might be another secondary max out west near God's Country, but I'm hesitant there just slightly because there are models that do not want to wrap this up as much as the GFS does. The way that 5h digs its own grave to the ENE can still make this a bit further E like the NAM/RGEM solutions and have a more compact comma head that shifts its dynamics to E MA ala Dec 9, 2005 It will be an interesting storm to forecast for on a mesoscale basis. Let's be honest, nobody ever calls for a ORE-CEF-HFD jackpot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What is PDII? Storm on Presidents day 03. the second big noreaster on presidents day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well I do b/c as of that post that was the only model out with bufkit data to get a good look at QPF. The 12z GFS bufkit is out now so now we'll see what that shows. Until the models/SREFS indicate strong probabilities of higher QPF totals I'll take the lower side. Paul, I wouldnt count on the NAM too much-- it has 21 inches for JFK and 49 inches ! for Islip. The JFK number is within the realm of possibilities but the Islip number is not lol. Most of our local mets are going for one foot in the city and 18 inches on Long Island. I would think you would get something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looking at wv...it is going to be mighty close to a triple phaser. once every 20 years I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well GFS bufkit only gets close to .6'' of QPF at BDL...looks like more in the way of dry air in the mid levels as winds are more NNE than the NAM which is more towards the S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Let's be honest, nobody ever calls for a ORE-CEF-HFD jackpot... Its difficult to because of the orographics...but sometimes you can overcome it with a band from hell like 2/5/01. But I think the clear signal is for an E MA jackpot and maybe into RI...but everyone should do plenty well. SREF probs are the highest by far in E MA for 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 what? I'm just messin' with you. I think the east slope will really make the most out of what ever qpf heads our way. Ratios and upslope enhancement should help us no? Looking at the two analogs that Bob posted last night both instances seemed to have left a jackpot here as well. Also, not sure the NW trend has completely ceased. All in all things look pretty rosey for both of us. Bottom line, it won't surprise me in the least if, in the end, we get a very solid thumping here. Of course, I bow to your superior knowledge on such matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Let's be honest, nobody ever calls for a ORE-CEF-HFD jackpot... That's b/c it doesn't really happen too often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 2/15/03. To date Boston's biggest snowfall but not deserving imho. 27.5 at BOS. Now, now, Jerry. We all know how that snow was measured by the FAA like they did in Baltimore in the Snow Magedon. They wiped the board off every hour and stated to the climotologist that they didn't know how to measure it every 6 hours. F6 data shows 17.0" for logan Air port on ground same day not 27.5". FAA's said they measured it the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm just messin' with you. I think the east slope will really make the most out of what ever qpf heads our way. Ratios and upslope enhancement should help us no? Looking at the two analogs that Bob posted last night both instances seemed to have left a jackpot here as well. Also, not sure the NW trend has completely ceased. All in all things look pretty rosey for both of us. Bottom line, it won't surprise me in the least if, in the end, we get a very solid thumping here. Of course, I bow to your superior knowledge on such matters. Everyone should very well...maybe only mixing issues on the Cape. You'll probably have a little secondary max there since the valley likely to get downsloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Kevin How do you get zoomed in images like that of the Northeast with QPF maps, I see them posted all the time but have no clue how to get them. It's much easier on the eyes than trying to squint at the national map. I save the image and then crop and zoom in photoshop. This is the 12z GFS QPF map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 check out the orographic snow hole in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Everyone should very well...maybe only mixing issues on the Cape. You'll probably have a little secondary max there since the valley likely to get downsloped. Yeah I was thinking about to myself..Are Ryan and Wiz gonna get downsloped to some degree? I guess it's possible 20's for temps from start to finish with this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I save the image and then crop and zoom in photoshop. This is the 12z GFS QPF map. Tiny purple bullseye in SEMa is centered on my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looking at wv...it is going to be mighty close to a triple phaser. once every 20 years I guess. I threw out 93 references this past week with the triple phase, looks close, I am wondering if winds are being underplayed, not seeing any inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey Will, I agree with you. I was mentioning that there seems to def be something going on with two qpf maxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Tiny purple bullseye in SEMa is centered on my house. Wish the Pat's would have been at Gilette tomorow.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah I was thinking about to myself..Are Ryan and Wiz gonna get downsloped to some degree? I guess it's possible 20's for temps from start to finish with this thing? excuse my ignorance, but do you have to be in a valley location to get downsloped? There's large mountains to my west, but I'm also on a large hill so does the downsloping mainly just happen in the lowest lying areas? still really trying to understand the whole upslope/downslope thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 check out the orographic snow hole in CT Kevin just kicked the Christmas tree over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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