Chrisrotary12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 A lot of people are going to wake up Sunday and find out a blizzard will be on their doorstep in 6-12 hours and they have no idea that it is coming really. If winds really do gust up to 50 and 60 power outages are quite possible. And people really don't know that it is on its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just ran MAV snow number. Other than the outer cape and ACK, some nice totals. HYA: 4+, EWB,PYM,TAN,BOS,BVY,BED,ORH,everything else in MA, 8+, NYC 8+, BWI 8+, PHL 8+, PWM 8+, AUG 6+. BOS,BVY,PWM etc have some additional beyond the first number. It's coming! Jerry--what are the mav numbers at ALY and AQW? Edit: EEN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I disagree cordially. Take a look at the band it had down in EVA on the old run, it's 150 miles NE this run. That's how much faster/more progressive this run is. if it's moving to consensus fine, but the NAM was somewhat faster too. Just something to watch. cweat... Have you followed the RUC on this storm so far, if so, how has it been performing? I just want to know if we could possibly use it for this storm forecast or has it just been utter garbage so far? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Does anyone have a listing or map of the stations? I know BOS,ORH,PVD and all the main one but some I'm not sure of and would be nice to look and see where everyone is talking about geographically. Here's something you can use, just scroll over the white dots http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_12.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Jerry--what are the mav numbers at ALY and AQW? AQW: 8+ ALB: 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's interesting that models are really hinting at a qpf bomb from cstl frontogenesis and also perhaps from the occlusion as well. We'll have to watch where some sort of meso subsidence zone happens in between that and deformation banding out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Does anyone have a listing or map of the stations? I know BOS,ORH,PVD and all the main one but some I'm not sure of and would be nice to look and see where everyone is talking about geographically. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap3.php?map=usa Click out in the Atlantic just east of Boston and it will zoom in on our area. Then mouse over each station and it will give you the id and obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.wrh.noaa....ap3.php?map=usa Click out in the Atlantic just east of Boston and it will zoom in on our area. Then mouse over each station and it will give you the id and obs. Thanks! Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 moneypitmike not an assessment. Just showing you the output, noting more...it's 36 hours away. There will be fluctuations but the chances we see another move like that are probably not great at least I hope! The snow getting far NW is dependent upon the timing, if everything is a little faster that's going to be a tight squeeze but I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm just pointing out how it might effect the output later or how that change effected the GFS /NAM this run. I hate to be so nitpicky in explaining what I mean but it's easy to misunderstand. Thoughts out loud. Nothing else to really see or worry about until 3pm, NCEP still nothing sizeable errors bugs me. BTW, what ncep noted as maybe an error on the NAM IMO would mean it should have been further west/northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's interesting that models are really hinting at a qpf bomb from cstl frontogenesis and also perhaps from the occlusion as well. We'll have to watch where some sort of meso subsidence zone happens in between that and deformation banding out west. Looking more into bufkit soundings for the entire area I could see some spots TOTALLY ending up getting screwed over with the potential for the subsidence zone and also potential for some downslopping. Hopefully that doesn't happen to anyone on here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 AQW: 8+ ALB: 8+ Awesome---thanks, Jerry!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Canadianlooks to be maybe just inside BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 cweat... Have you followed the RUC on this storm so far, if so, how has it been performing? I just want to know if we could possibly use it for this storm forecast or has it just been utter garbage so far? Thanks dont care that much to be honest! If we go six hours without the models jumping around on a 12 hour forecast it'll matter, right now we can assume they're going to change at h6 and h12, there's no point in looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looking more into bufkit soundings for the entire area I could see some spots TOTALLY ending up getting screwed over with the potential for the subsidence zone and also potential for some downslopping. Hopefully that doesn't happen to anyone on here lol Do you think that the GFS is somewhat showing that subsidence zone with that "V" that Tip talked about? heavy snow for W MA, Heavy snow for E MA, Screwed in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did the GFS ensembles come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 moneypitmike not an assessment. Just showing you the output, noting more...it's 36 hours away. There will be fluctuations but the chances we see another move like that are probably not great at least I hope! The snow getting far NW is dependent upon the timing, if everything is a little faster that's going to be a tight squeeze but I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm just pointing out how it might effect the output later or how that change effected the GFS /NAM this run. I hate to be so nitpicky in explaining what I mean but it's easy to misunderstand. Thoughts out loud. Nothing else to really see or worry about until 3pm, NCEP still nothing sizeable errors bugs me. BTW, what ncep noted as maybe an error on the NAM IMO would mean it should have been further west/northwest. Thanks--bad choice of words on my part. Also, thanks for the explanaiton of NCEP's comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Canadianlooks to be maybe just inside BM. Scott-is that where it was on the 00z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Do you think that the GFS is somewhat showing that subsidence zone with that "V" that Tip talked about? heavy snow for W MA, Heavy snow for E MA, Screwed in between? The Blizzard of 1978 had that type of (V) like formation with its snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Scott-is that where it was on the 00z run? It may have been a hair nw of 00z, but qof shield is further nw. It looks a little slower, which could be the reason for a nw precip shield movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Do you think that the GFS is somewhat showing that subsidence zone with that "V" that Tip talked about? heavy snow for W MA, Heavy snow for E MA, Screwed in between? Stop worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did the GFS ensembles come out yet? NW of the OP I think, pretty heavy snow into ski country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sorry to be this guy, but would driving to NYC from Boston starting at 10 AM Sunday be a bad idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The dryslot does concern me a little, but the models are hinting at big low level frontogenesis..perhaps even extending into midlevels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drew13btv Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sorry to be this guy, but would driving to NYC from Boston starting at 10 AM Sunday be a bad idea? I think if you have to make the drive on Sunday the early in the day the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sorry to be this guy, but would driving to NYC from Boston starting at 10 AM Sunday be a bad idea? IMO, YES! Roads will be packed for xmas travel and snow. Plus you'll miss the Pats game... leave at 7 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Do you think that the GFS is somewhat showing that subsidence zone with that "V" that Tip talked about? heavy snow for W MA, Heavy snow for E MA, Screwed in between? You need a tranquilizer this morning. These meso features aren't going to be modeled perfectly yet. Go empty your stocking, pour a glass of egg nog, play with some toys, and try to relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks--bad choice of words on my part. Also, thanks for the explanaiton of NCEP's comments. New from NCEP:...just have to watch the NE speed on this thing everything else looks great. THE 12Z GFS HAS A SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS 2 RUNS WITH THE SURFACE LOW BEING FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BY SUNDAY/18Z WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW EAST OF THE VIRGINIA/MARYLAND COAST...THE 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. BY MONDAY/06Z...THE DEEP SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE 06Z RUN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF THE 12Z NAM POSITION SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THEREFORE...THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT INDICATING MORE OF A CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS THOUGH THE NAM REMAINS FARTHER EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not sure if it's been mentioned, but 12z GGEM is still a real good it for SNE...about 25-50 miles SE of ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The dryslot does concern me a little, but the models are hinting at big low level frontogenesis..perhaps even extending into midlevels. New avatar for you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ensembles are right over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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