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XMAS Miracle: Blizzard of 2010 Lead-in Dialogue

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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WeatherX

WeatherX

Posted
Posted

Merry Christmas John, it was great finally meeting you. Hopefully you have a great holiday.

It looks like you can get in on this big snow too and not have to cuss people like me behind your back. You're still part of SNE even though you used to post in the NYC threads most of the time. You are one of us.

LLets hope for an epic storm for all of us to remember. Merry Christmas. :snowman:

Will, the pleasure meeting you was all mine. My weakness allows me time to do some things I regret, including saying things I look back upon with extreme horror. Thanks for your kind words and your welcome to the SNE thread. It's all "bagus", as my wife would say which means "good"

This one looks like a Kocin addition to me......ground breaking, index crushing storm...

Merry Christmas to you in the highest order!

John

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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It will be interesting how this cutoff evolves...because it has potential to do it just right in the area SE of LI to imitate a HECS for SNE...the pattern is fairlu progressive, but there is room for a perfect cutoff in there.

I'll maybe have to write about the anatomy of a SNE HECS tomorrow night if we see that type of solution try to continue on models tomorrow. It would be quite unusual in the way it gets there, but still in the right spot. Pretty early to even be talking about HECS numbers, but the possibility is trying to rear its head tonight. I would remain quite cautious right now and think about big snows, but nothing too crazy.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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It will be interesting how this cutoff evolves...because it has potential to do it just right in the area SE of LI to imitate a HECS for SNE...the pattern is fairlu progressive, but there is room for a perfect cutoff in there.

I'll maybe have to write about the anatomy of a SNE HECS tomorrow night if we see that type of solution try to continue on models tomorrow. It would be quite unusual in the way it gets there, but still in the right spot. Pretty early to even be talking about HECS numbers, but the possibility is trying to rear its head tonight. I would remain quite cautious right now and think about big snows, but nothing too crazy.

Why is this progressive with that 50\50 and huge block.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Why is this progressive with that 50\50 and huge block.

The 50/50 is there but its moving, the block is breaking down...its not a huge stout block. We have this trough wanting to move...there's an arctic kicker too coming in from Ontario.

But we still have room to stall this for 12 hours and make it a 30 hour storm if everything goes right...but its a bit early to say too much about that.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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So what do we do if the EC ensembles come in SE of 12z?

:guitar:

Apparently HPC is putting low confidence in the euro ensembles right now (based on their latest discussion) because the euro trended so far west (maybe the ensembles havent had enough time to catch up?)

Theyre actually not putting much confidence in anything right now.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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The 50/50 is there but its moving, the block is breaking down...its not a huge stout block. We have this trough wanting to move...there's an arctic kicker too coming in from Ontario.

But we still have room to stall this for 12 hours and make it a 30 hour storm if everything goes right...but its a bit early to say too much about that.

Do you think it could be a 30 hr storm even for here? The forecasts seem to be going up, up, up lol.

I would like this thing stalling out just southeast of LI-- perfect spot.

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
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Can't think of a better night to be up with a GI bug...Merry Christmas!

Big question in my mind...assuming this storm comes together...why did the Euro back off on this storm for 4 runs or so? Was it shotwave timing? Strength of vitmaxes? Trough position/orientation? If it weren't for that...euro would've taken the rest of the models to the woodshed.

Pretty much opposite of the last storm...euro had the best handle on a mostly out to sea solution...only to have a few bad runs around 3-4 days out...the return to it's original solution. (I was hoping the same sort of deal was happening earlier Friday when looking for reasons the 12z/18z American models were right)

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Logan11

Logan11

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Yep everything is starting to break across the North Atlantic ... I have been reading the forecasts out of Europe and Ireland finally expects a thaw by later Sunday after the historic cold. They actually had a day on Tuesday that didn't get above 15F (daytime high) in parts of County Cavan (northeast part of the republic).

The 50/50 is there but its moving, the block is breaking down...its not a huge stout block. We have this trough wanting to move...there's an arctic kicker too coming in from Ontario.

But we still have room to stall this for 12 hours and make it a 30 hour storm if everything goes right...but its a bit early to say too much about that.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Do you think it could be a 30 hr storm even for here? The forecasts seem to be going up, up, up lol.

I would like this thing stalling out just southeast of LI-- perfect spot.

30h event (meaning good snows for 30h...not 30h from first flurry to ending flurry) there would be tougher because of the latitude of where this want to close off, but if it keeps closing off further south like the GFS wants to do, then its a possibility. LI def might get destroyed though. Hard to say.

There's sopme pretty amped up models out there, but you HAVE to be careful on those even though its easy for weenies to rave about them....they often can over trend or be over amped even in the midst of a real trend...and the truth lies a bit more subdued than those solutions. We still have 48 hours...so we'll have to monitor it closely. I'd certainly feel great about a huge snow for you....but I would remain quite cautious about the HECS type numbers there....heck even here, I'm not gonna consider them seriously yet and the signal for here (ORH) is overwhelming for a HECS right now verbatim....but the confidence is so much less than you'd normally like it to call anything like that.

There's a big difference between model consensus like tonight vs other situations where continuity was huge. Most inexperienced forecasters and weenies have no sense of continuity in models and what that means for confidence. They just assume if all models agree, its going to happen. While thats fine, and often works...you can sometimes get into big trouble taking that at face value still 48-60h out. This can still trend bad because the setup is quite fragile.

But I'd be fairly confident right now....but really cautious on the weenie totals at the moment.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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30h event (meaning good snows for 30h...not 30h from first flurry to ending flurry) there would be tougher because of the latitude of where this want to close off, but if it keeps closing off further south like the GFS wants to do, then its a possibility. LI def might get destroyed though. Hard to say.

There's sopme pretty amped up models out there, but you HAVE to be careful on those even though its easy for weenies to rave about them....they often can over trend or be over amped even in the midst of a real trend...and the truth lies a bit more subdued than those solutions. We still have 48 hours...so we'll have to monitor it closely. I'd certainly feel great about a huge snow for you....but I would remain quite cautious about the HECS type numbers there....heck even here, I'm not gonna consider them seriously yet and the signal for here (ORH) is overwhelming for a HECS right now verbatim....but the confidence is so much less than you'd normally like it to call anything like that.

There's a big difference between model consensus like tonight vs other situations where continuity was huge. Most inexperienced forecasters and weenies have no sense of continuity in models and what that means for confidence. They just assume if all models agree, its going to happen. While thats fine, and often works...you can sometimes get into big trouble taking that at face value still 48-60h out. This can still trend bad because the setup is quite fragile.

But I'd be fairly confident right now....but really cautious on the weenie totals at the moment.

Thanks, Will! Im worried about stuff like power outages-- basically I live in a really sensitive area, anything over 50 mph and the power goes out-- and stays out. The power went out for two of our storms last year and it got really cold inside my house lol.

Also worried about a possible mix, as I live only about 2-3 miles from the water. For reference, Im about 25 miles southeast of NYC.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Merry Christmas Brian.

Merry Christmas Will. :snowman:

Funny OT thing just happened. I'm at my parent's place in Hooksett right now and my sis, niece, and nephew are sleeping one room over. I just heard a loud bang downstairs. I checked it out and the chimney mantle fell to the floor with decorations and stockings everywhere. This may get another year out of my nephew believing. :lol:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Merry Christmas Will. :snowman:

Funny OT thing just happened. I'm at my parent's place in Hooksett right now and my sis, niece, and nephew are sleeping one room over. I just heard a loud bang downstairs. I checked it out and the chimney mantle fell to the floor with decorations and stockings everywhere. This may get another year out of my nephew believing. :lol:

Well you can easily tell him Santa knocked it over. :snowman:

I'm starting to believe that we just might see a HECS in this part of SNE. I'm always very cautious about throwing that term around when talking about a current event, but I'm starting to think about it. I won't let myself believe though until tomorrow's 12z runs.

Its hard to believe a solution as far west as the GFS and Euro verbatim...but they might be true....but something even slightly E of there would be a MECS here and perhaps borderline HECS here.

But it takes a lot to get a HECS in ORH...I reserve that term for a top 10 snowstorm. 10th place here is a 20.2" in Feb 1978 blizzard. But we could get something like that if we can arrange a perfect stall S of LI. That sfc low placement would put me at a good upslope position...it wouldn't be as good as Dec 1992 because the ageostrophic wind will be a lot more north and the actual wind as a result would be more north too. But still something to start getting excited about.

Your area is starting to look pretty good too, even if out of the heaviest snows.

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dendrite

dendrite

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Well you can easily tell him Santa knocked it over. :snowman:

I'm starting to believe that we just might see a HECS in this part of SNE. I'm always very cautious about throwing that term around when talking about a current event, but I'm starting to think about it. I won't let myself believe though until tomorrow's 12z runs.

Its hard to believe a solution as far west as the GFS and Euro verbatim...but they might be true....but something even slightly E of there would be a MECS here and perhaps borderline HECS here.

But it takes a lot to get a HECS in ORH...I reserve that term for a top 10 snowstorm. 10th place here is a 20.2" in Feb 1978 blizzard. But we could get something like that if we can arrange a perfect stall S of LI. That sfc low placement would put me at a good upslope position...it wouldn't be as good as Dec 1992 because the ageostrophic wind will be a lot more north and the actual wind as a result would be more north too. But still something to start getting excited about.

Your area is starting to look pretty good too, even if out of the heaviest snows.

I agree with the caution on throwing out top 10 snowfall amounts. You mentioned continuity before and I agree. It'd be nice to get the models on the same page for more than one run without anymore trending (although I'll take more of a NW trend ;) ). And yeah...that ageostrophic wind will be cranking from that isallobaric component. I think the NAM drops the LP center almost 40mb in 24hrs in one stretch.

I'm lacking confidence on warning criteria for home. I'd like to think I can squeak out some high ratio deformation snows at one point, but with this track I'm slightly worried about some downsloping. We start around NNE-NE which isn't horrible, but quickly back to the N-NNW. The higher res NAM maps and MM5 are putting me in a slight shadow. A half foot and I'll be happy. 10" and I'll be shockingly giddy.

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free_man

free_man

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I agree with the caution on throwing out top 10 snowfall amounts. You mentioned continuity before and I agree. It'd be nice to get the models on the same page for more than one run without anymore trending (although I'll take more of a NW trend ;) ). And yeah...that ageostrophic wind will be cranking from that isallobaric component. I think the NAM drops the LP center almost 40mb in 24hrs in one stretch.

I'm lacking confidence on warning criteria for home. I'd like to think I can squeak out some high ratio deformation snows at one point, but with this track I'm slightly worried about some downsloping. We start around NNE-NE which isn't horrible, but quickly back to the N-NNW. The higher res NAM maps and MM5 are putting me in a slight shadow. A half foot and I'll be happy. 10" and I'll be shockingly giddy.

Just slightly farther west and we're jumping off buildings into a 2' soft landing while BOS/PVD is dripping.

I like the 00z Euro, looks very reasonable at this point.

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free_man

free_man

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I'm probably the only one on this board daying "FOOK". More of a windblown rain than anything for ACK. Oh well. Merry Christmas to everyone else who is going to get whacked with huge snows. Congrats. :snowman:

Could still trend east (nam/gfs) though not sure it helps ACK any. Have a happy holiday.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I agree with the caution on throwing out top 10 snowfall amounts. You mentioned continuity before and I agree. It'd be nice to get the models on the same page for more than one run without anymore trending (although I'll take more of a NW trend ;) ). And yeah...that ageostrophic wind will be cranking from that isallobaric component. I think the NAM drops the LP center almost 40mb in 24hrs in one stretch.

I'm lacking confidence on warning criteria for home. I'd like to think I can squeak out some high ratio deformation snows at one point, but with this track I'm slightly worried about some downsloping. We start around NNE-NE which isn't horrible, but quickly back to the N-NNW. The higher res NAM maps and MM5 are putting me in a slight shadow. A half foot and I'll be happy. 10" and I'll be shockingly giddy.

You'll probably end up ok...these things usually trend a bit later and north with there tendency to blow their snow load on someone. You'll probably get in one one good band and then suffer downlope SN- the rest of the event while I pile it up in ORH. :snowman:

Lol...you'll get me back though on the January pattern because that looks a bit more SWFE-ish or at least one where latitude helps. Hopefully we can all enjoy a decent event though. This is the type of storm where my area will get you....you probably only avg an inch or two more than me (maybe 3-4 at most...not sure your exact orographics....but CON is 64" and I'm 69" and I assume you are more than CON at 600 feet and N)

But you destroyed me in '07-'08 and '08-'09...I got you in a "who sucked less" battle last year but barely. So these are the types of storms where I might score a lot better than your area....but like I said, hopefully its one of those "dendrite 12 inches, ORH 24 inches" type deals. I'll be happy with 12" myself...but I can hope for that former scenario. :snowman:

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