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XMAS Miracle: Blizzard of 2010 Lead-in Dialogue


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I'm starting to get really worried on the GFS... it keeps showing this stupid V cutout for SNH.. Anyone know why its doing that?

gfs_pcp_042l.gif

I wouldn't worry about it, don't take the precip map exactly right now, that will likely change. It usually beefs up precip once the low track is more certain. I think the GFS has some strange precip centers that develop, and I am more inclined to follow the NAM right now I think.

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IMO Gfs is still a warning sign too. First 24 hours it too is faster, result is less QPF to some extent (down sw you obviously all know rest of run isnt out yet) as it takes a little longer to get everything together. The increase in speed has been an off and on again trend for a day or two. What I could easily see is that continuing for another run or two with things sneaking out a little before wrapping back. Still a lot to be determined, IMO but there's consensus building as the NAM/GFS start to head towards one another.

yes i strongly agree with this post

always very cautious of storms that 'have to get their act together'

on the plus side, being near a bombing storm can lead to some pleasant surprises :snowman:

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I'm starting to get really worried on the GFS... it keeps showing this stupid V cutout for SNH.. Anyone know why its doing that?

The system gets vertically stacked S of Long Island and then a secondary low develops over the Maritimes. During the redevelopment of the sfc low we get caught in the relative screw zone. Let's wait and see how it plays out in the next 12-24hrs of runs. It's still a lot of snow.
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NAM bufkit showing between 40-50 knots mixing down at ORH and from some people I'm talking too online as much as 60 knots mixing down out across parts of far eastern MA :o

Do you think power outages will be a large concern with this storm? or is the snow not wet enough?

Ok.. I'll stop posting for the day.. Merry Xmas

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Guys this is all I'm saying on the NAM/GFS and to some extent the RGEM on the SW tail of this event, in six hours this is how much the speed and as a result the QPF field has changed. Look way to our sw near NC. The wet one was the 6z, 12z is the new GFS.

That would worry me a little at this range, could just be the models locking in, or they could be playing a game trying to catch up. The "pivot point" went from North Central PA at 6z to near Albany in a single run, another similar shift and our QPF totals here will begin to be effected.

Just something to watch is all, may be at end an end, may not be. Not saying it won't snow in Tolland or east cutty, don't care to be honest. Just saying, 3 for 3 on that change in one run. I need to stress is again for the ones that get all worked up when someone points something out and will accuse me of wrecking christmas, kicking their cats or stealing their chickens....just showing the output and something to watch for.... IF it happened again in 6 more hours and it's a real trend we will begin to compress the NW edge of the snow shield in SNE SE ward

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Not sure if this has been posted yet

Model extraction for ORH from the 12z NAM!!!

33 12/26 21Z 24 22 29 14 0.05 0.00 531 538 -7.7 -21.9 1008 100 -SN 008OVC223 0.5 0.1

36 12/27 00Z 23 21 19 18 0.16 0.00 532 536 -7.4 -22.5 1005 100 SN 007OVC175 1.6 0.4

39 12/27 03Z 25 22 22 20 0.23 0.01 533 532 -8.2 -20.8 998 100 TSSN 009OVC240 2.3 0.3

42 12/27 06Z 26 24 15 26 0.30 0.00 533 526 -7.0 -23.3 990 100 SN 008OVC211 3.0 0.4

45 12/27 09Z 26 24 10 28 0.22 0.00 532 519 -8.6 -24.7 983 100 SN 006OVC112 2.2 0.6

48 12/27 12Z 26 23 355 26 0.15 0.00 530 516 -8.5 -24.8 982 100 -SN 006OVC135 1.5 0.6

51 12/27 15Z 22 19 333 23 0.11 0.00 528 516 -8.7 -22.7 984 100 -SN 007OVC259 1.1 1.0

54 12/27 18Z 19 15 323 24 0.04 0.00 526 516 -9.6 -22.9 987 100 -SN 007OVC196 0.4 2.0

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