snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS is just perfect for me...although the better banding on the GFS may even set up to my NW. GFS says the M/A gets more than SNE... I guess it still is 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS is just perfect for me...although the better banding on the GFS may even set up to my NW. Wow we are going to slammed it seems. The max zone appears to be moving west? Oh this is awesome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 maybe south coast of CT, RI.. I assume that is what you mean. and se mass...47 on ack i think gfs is over doing surface warming b/c nam is way colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 QPF bombs keep showing up over boston (consistent with NWS weenie map snow maxes) is this ocean enhancement or some other reason? Best lift in that area?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm starting to get really worried on the GFS... it keeps showing this stupid V cutout for SNH.. Anyone know why its doing that? I wouldn't worry about it, don't take the precip map exactly right now, that will likely change. It usually beefs up precip once the low track is more certain. I think the GFS has some strange precip centers that develop, and I am more inclined to follow the NAM right now I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS is just perfect for me...although the better banding on the GFS may even set up to my NW. you can come live in my house for a day. :snowman::thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm at the stage where I am looking for things to worry about as a defense mechanism; only thing I can find is the continued trend toward more progressivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 IMO Gfs is still a warning sign too. First 24 hours it too is faster, result is less QPF to some extent (down sw you obviously all know rest of run isnt out yet) as it takes a little longer to get everything together. The increase in speed has been an off and on again trend for a day or two. What I could easily see is that continuing for another run or two with things sneaking out a little before wrapping back. Still a lot to be determined, IMO but there's consensus building as the NAM/GFS start to head towards one another. yes i strongly agree with this post always very cautious of storms that 'have to get their act together' on the plus side, being near a bombing storm can lead to some pleasant surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I really think that SE MA , RI and Even S CT have to start worrying about a huge dryslot...per the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS says the M/A gets more than SNE... I guess it still is 2010 Alright, I was nice to you before, and gave you friendly advise. Now I'm giving it to you straight. Your posts are worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm starting to get really worried on the GFS... it keeps showing this stupid V cutout for SNH.. Anyone know why its doing that? The system gets vertically stacked S of Long Island and then a secondary low develops over the Maritimes. During the redevelopment of the sfc low we get caught in the relative screw zone. Let's wait and see how it plays out in the next 12-24hrs of runs. It's still a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I really think that SE MA , RI and Even S CT have to start worrying about a huge dryslot...per the GFS nah maybe se mass, but the thing we rly need to look out for are the BL temps it seems...but only on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS says the M/A gets more than SNE... I guess it still is 2010 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM bufkit showing between 40-50 knots mixing down at ORH and from some people I'm talking too online as much as 60 knots mixing down out across parts of far eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 :weenie: Why in god's name hasn't this guy been given the boot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm close to locking in 8-15 here in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM bufkit showing between 40-50 knots mixing down at ORH and from some people I'm talking too online as much as 60 knots mixing down out across parts of far eastern MA weather wiz, what you callin for in CT as of now? like amounts, temps, ratios etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I really think that SE MA , RI and Even S CT have to start worrying about a huge dryslot...per the GFS Not even close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM bufkit showing between 40-50 knots mixing down at ORH and from some people I'm talking too online as much as 60 knots mixing down out across parts of far eastern MA Do you think power outages will be a large concern with this storm? or is the snow not wet enough? Ok.. I'll stop posting for the day.. Merry Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Guys this is all I'm saying on the NAM/GFS and to some extent the RGEM on the SW tail of this event, in six hours this is how much the speed and as a result the QPF field has changed. Look way to our sw near NC. The wet one was the 6z, 12z is the new GFS. That would worry me a little at this range, could just be the models locking in, or they could be playing a game trying to catch up. The "pivot point" went from North Central PA at 6z to near Albany in a single run, another similar shift and our QPF totals here will begin to be effected. Just something to watch is all, may be at end an end, may not be. Not saying it won't snow in Tolland or east cutty, don't care to be honest. Just saying, 3 for 3 on that change in one run. I need to stress is again for the ones that get all worked up when someone points something out and will accuse me of wrecking christmas, kicking their cats or stealing their chickens....just showing the output and something to watch for.... IF it happened again in 6 more hours and it's a real trend we will begin to compress the NW edge of the snow shield in SNE SE ward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS says the M/A gets more than SNE... I guess it still is 2010 are you drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS is just perfect for me...although the better banding on the GFS may even set up to my NW. Me like GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 weather wiz, what you callin for in CT as of now? like amounts, temps, ratios etc well waiting to see what the GFS/Ukie/Euro give us QPF wise but I could certainly see widespread 8-12'' with isolated higher amounts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm close to locking in 8-15 here in CT what do you make of the BL temps in southern ct....im nervous now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Do you think power outages will be a large concern with this storm? or is the snow not wet enough? Certainly will be some power issues and if some of these wind progs verify there certainly could be some major issues, at least locally, as far as how widespread this concern is not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm at the stage where I am looking for things to worry about as a defense mechanism; only thing I can find is the continued trend toward more progressivity. I think we sit in a great spot for this one......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well FWIW, the NAM bufkit at BDL has 15:1 ratios. Wind is a huge ratio killer. I'd stick to 11-12:1 personally. Seen it many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm close to locking in 8-15 here in CT Ryan--lock with double digits on the low-end. Ratios and consistently appropriate qpf makes it reaonable (though I understand being cautious on the public airwaves:). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not sure if this has been posted yet Model extraction for ORH from the 12z NAM!!! 33 12/26 21Z 24 22 29 14 0.05 0.00 531 538 -7.7 -21.9 1008 100 -SN 008OVC223 0.5 0.1 36 12/27 00Z 23 21 19 18 0.16 0.00 532 536 -7.4 -22.5 1005 100 SN 007OVC175 1.6 0.4 39 12/27 03Z 25 22 22 20 0.23 0.01 533 532 -8.2 -20.8 998 100 TSSN 009OVC240 2.3 0.3 42 12/27 06Z 26 24 15 26 0.30 0.00 533 526 -7.0 -23.3 990 100 SN 008OVC211 3.0 0.4 45 12/27 09Z 26 24 10 28 0.22 0.00 532 519 -8.6 -24.7 983 100 SN 006OVC112 2.2 0.6 48 12/27 12Z 26 23 355 26 0.15 0.00 530 516 -8.5 -24.8 982 100 -SN 006OVC135 1.5 0.6 51 12/27 15Z 22 19 333 23 0.11 0.00 528 516 -8.7 -22.7 984 100 -SN 007OVC259 1.1 1.0 54 12/27 18Z 19 15 323 24 0.04 0.00 526 516 -9.6 -22.9 987 100 -SN 007OVC196 0.4 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm off today but I've locked in 8-15" here in CT. Near blizzard conditions are possible too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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