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XMAS Miracle: Blizzard of 2010 Lead-in Dialogue


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However, I do believe that storm did dump the 36" in Melrose (that is where I am from and where I will be for this storm. I am normally in Northeast Vermont studying the weather at Lyndon State). But yea anyways that was an awesome storm, we had drifts close to 7-8 ft in my driveway and the unofficial measurement was originally 42" at the city yard around the corner from my house.

No - that did not happen in Acton - there was some meso banded weaknesses in the comma head ...maybe G-wave related, who knows - but there was no where near 20" in Acton.

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Where had it tracked at 00z?

BM or maybe just NW.

The RGEM just moved from the NC/SC border at 500mb to central VA in a single run/point in time at 36h 12z. That's a few hundred miles west of the 0z GFS. So it will be interesting to see if the consensus comes in towards the NAM, or the GFS.

The NAM was pretty consistent as Tip noted, but so was the op EURO for days.

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I might be looking at different maps but running a line between the 36 and 48 hour positions runs it right over the BM to a position east of cape cod.

What does QPF look like to you on the GEM...I'm trying to look at it on the map but but not sure if I'm getting a good look at it or not.

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Brian, if you're still here, what are the odds that we can eek out better than 10:1 ratios up here? I'm hoping being displaced from the highest wind should help a lot.

I hate to guess that at this point. I'd say a general 10-12:1 with the regular snowfall rates and then 15:1 in the meso banding...maybe even higher than that at times. Winds will be a problem...lots of BLSN/DRSN. We'll probably see public reports where neighbors measure 12" apart...especially in MA. :lol: I may buy some of that orange snow fencing and make dual concentric snow fences to measure off of the snowboard. NWS GRR does this. I want to put an ultrasonic snow depth sensor out there eventually.

It would seem we could be in a good posititon for a deform band, but one model was showing subsidence last eve. What is your experience with these kind of storms up here?

Well it seems like that deform band always likes to setup somewhere near IZG. We're in a pretty good spot right now on the placement on the H7 low on the NAM to get really good frontogenetic banding. If you're getting extreme mesoscale banding in one location you're probably going to see some meso subsidence screw zones. It's like the subsidence around a hurricane with extreme UVVs around the eyewall...if the air goes up somewhere it's coming down somewhere else.
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I might be looking at different maps but running a line between the 36 and 48 hour positions runs it right over the BM to a position east of cape cod.

the b&w look a bit touch east u right

im going off this one that comes out a bit earlier looks closer to the Cape at 964mb but tough to tell with alll the lines lol

u know you're area better so maybe u can better a closer look

post-149-0-83599700-1293290937.png

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rgem ptype has issues for coastal se mass and the cape.

The RGEM had precip type issues when it was 150 miles SE of the BM.

Verbatim the track appears to be over the benchmark with a slight curl north. It's east of cape cod per the black and whites. That track at this time of year will bring some warm air in, I will change over here almost for sure but Bob would probably be okay, as would most of interior SE MA.

It crushes EMA, SE NH and SW Maine and somehow just Mt Tolland. Take a close look, looks like 25mm on Kevins head ending 48

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You'll probably end up ok...these things usually trend a bit later and north with there tendency to blow their snow load on someone. You'll probably get in one one good band and then suffer downlope SN- the rest of the event while I pile it up in ORH. :snowman:

Lol...you'll get me back though on the January pattern because that looks a bit more SWFE-ish or at least one where latitude helps. Hopefully we can all enjoy a decent event though. This is the type of storm where my area will get you....you probably only avg an inch or two more than me (maybe 3-4 at most...not sure your exact orographics....but CON is 64" and I'm 69" and I assume you are more than CON at 600 feet and N)

But you destroyed me in '07-'08 and '08-'09...I got you in a "who sucked less" battle last year but barely. So these are the types of storms where I might score a lot better than your area....but like I said, hopefully its one of those "dendrite 12 inches, ORH 24 inches" type deals. I'll be happy with 12" myself...but I can hope for that former scenario. :snowman:

:lol:

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However, I do believe that storm did dump the 36" in Melrose (that is where I am from and where I will be for this storm. I am normally in Northeast Vermont studying the weather at Lyndon State). But yea anyways that was an awesome storm, we had drifts close to 7-8 ft in my driveway and the unofficial measurement was originally 42" at the city yard around the corner from my house.

yeah, I said that awhile ago that it was impressive in some areas -s ure

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the b&w look a bit touch east u right

im going off this one that comes out a bit earlier looks closer to the Cape at 964mb but tough to tell with alll the lines lol

u know you're area better so maybe u can better a closer look

post-149-0-83599700-1293290937.png

Is that a CMC product? I hate their maps. In any case it's further NW and it's curling.

RGEM Bob, Scott and Weathafella FTW along with folks to the north.

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The RGEM had precip type issues when it was 150 miles SE of the BM.

Verbatim the track appears to be over the benchmark with a slight curl north. It's east of cape cod per the black and whites. That track at this time of year will bring some warm air in, I will change over here almost for sure but Bob would probably be okay, as would most of interior SE MA.

It crushes EMA, SE NH and SW Maine and somehow just Mt Tolland. Take a close look, looks like 25mm on Kevins head ending 48

Messenger, you have a good understanding of the area. I'm about 5-6 miles from the coast in Kingston, basically by the Plympton and Halifax lines. What do you think the chances that this area stays mostly snow for the storm. Judging by the track, and history usually there are some p-type issues but they don't always make it to where I live.

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I might be looking at different maps but running a line between the 36 and 48 hour positions runs it right over the BM to a position east of cape cod.

The 3hrly maps from meteocentre will be out in a bit. It's hard to tell with the 12hr intervals...maybe it's hooking just inside the BM like some of the other models are doing? Either way it's close.
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