Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Let;s hold it off till late afternoon tomorrow ..Doable right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 However, I do believe that storm did dump the 36" in Melrose (that is where I am from and where I will be for this storm. I am normally in Northeast Vermont studying the weather at Lyndon State). But yea anyways that was an awesome storm, we had drifts close to 7-8 ft in my driveway and the unofficial measurement was originally 42" at the city yard around the corner from my house. No - that did not happen in Acton - there was some meso banded weaknesses in the comma head ...maybe G-wave related, who knows - but there was no where near 20" in Acton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What does everyone think is the farthest potential NW extent of the rain/snow line...i've been seen the GFS nudge it more NW every run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Let;s hold it off till late afternoon tomorrow ..Doable right? Do you have work on Monday? Are you going to stay up late tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I''m sorry I've been out and don't want to have to read too much. What are the mets saying? Are we going with the NAM/UKMET/GGEM consensus, or the GFS/Euro/MM5 consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lol. You'll be speaking of PWM, though!!! Merry Christmas, eric. Merry Christmas, Mike. Happiness abounds today. And you're getting more than 4-8 ... deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM 964 looks to be right over the tip of the Cape at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Where had it tracked at 00z? BM or maybe just NW. The RGEM just moved from the NC/SC border at 500mb to central VA in a single run/point in time at 36h 12z. That's a few hundred miles west of the 0z GFS. So it will be interesting to see if the consensus comes in towards the NAM, or the GFS. The NAM was pretty consistent as Tip noted, but so was the op EURO for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Do you have work on Monday? Are you going to stay up late tomorrow night? No and probably not too late but will wake up to check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM 964 looks to be right over the tip of the Cape at 48 Holy mother of God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Guess what very appropriate gift I got for Christmas??? Northeast Snowstorms!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM extrapolated from 36 to 48, it's right over the benchmark, anyone disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RGEM 964 looks to be right over the tip of the Cape at 48 I might be looking at different maps but running a line between the 36 and 48 hour positions runs it right over the BM to a position east of cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 rgem ptype has issues for coastal se mass and the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I might be looking at different maps but running a line between the 36 and 48 hour positions runs it right over the BM to a position east of cape cod. messenger, thats what i see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I might be looking at different maps but running a line between the 36 and 48 hour positions runs it right over the BM to a position east of cape cod. Would that placement still be nw of it's prior run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I might be looking at different maps but running a line between the 36 and 48 hour positions runs it right over the BM to a position east of cape cod. What does QPF look like to you on the GEM...I'm trying to look at it on the map but but not sure if I'm getting a good look at it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Brian, if you're still here, what are the odds that we can eek out better than 10:1 ratios up here? I'm hoping being displaced from the highest wind should help a lot. I hate to guess that at this point. I'd say a general 10-12:1 with the regular snowfall rates and then 15:1 in the meso banding...maybe even higher than that at times. Winds will be a problem...lots of BLSN/DRSN. We'll probably see public reports where neighbors measure 12" apart...especially in MA. I may buy some of that orange snow fencing and make dual concentric snow fences to measure off of the snowboard. NWS GRR does this. I want to put an ultrasonic snow depth sensor out there eventually. It would seem we could be in a good posititon for a deform band, but one model was showing subsidence last eve. What is your experience with these kind of storms up here? Well it seems like that deform band always likes to setup somewhere near IZG. We're in a pretty good spot right now on the placement on the H7 low on the NAM to get really good frontogenetic banding. If you're getting extreme mesoscale banding in one location you're probably going to see some meso subsidence screw zones. It's like the subsidence around a hurricane with extreme UVVs around the eyewall...if the air goes up somewhere it's coming down somewhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I might be looking at different maps but running a line between the 36 and 48 hour positions runs it right over the BM to a position east of cape cod. the b&w look a bit touch east u right im going off this one that comes out a bit earlier looks closer to the Cape at 964mb but tough to tell with alll the lines lol u know you're area better so maybe u can better a closer look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 rgem looks to have 1.3" qpf in most of ct with up to 1.5+" in se mass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 rgem ptype has issues for coastal se mass and the cape. The RGEM had precip type issues when it was 150 miles SE of the BM. Verbatim the track appears to be over the benchmark with a slight curl north. It's east of cape cod per the black and whites. That track at this time of year will bring some warm air in, I will change over here almost for sure but Bob would probably be okay, as would most of interior SE MA. It crushes EMA, SE NH and SW Maine and somehow just Mt Tolland. Take a close look, looks like 25mm on Kevins head ending 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 You'll probably end up ok...these things usually trend a bit later and north with there tendency to blow their snow load on someone. You'll probably get in one one good band and then suffer downlope SN- the rest of the event while I pile it up in ORH. Lol...you'll get me back though on the January pattern because that looks a bit more SWFE-ish or at least one where latitude helps. Hopefully we can all enjoy a decent event though. This is the type of storm where my area will get you....you probably only avg an inch or two more than me (maybe 3-4 at most...not sure your exact orographics....but CON is 64" and I'm 69" and I assume you are more than CON at 600 feet and N) But you destroyed me in '07-'08 and '08-'09...I got you in a "who sucked less" battle last year but barely. So these are the types of storms where I might score a lot better than your area....but like I said, hopefully its one of those "dendrite 12 inches, ORH 24 inches" type deals. I'll be happy with 12" myself...but I can hope for that former scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 However, I do believe that storm did dump the 36" in Melrose (that is where I am from and where I will be for this storm. I am normally in Northeast Vermont studying the weather at Lyndon State). But yea anyways that was an awesome storm, we had drifts close to 7-8 ft in my driveway and the unofficial measurement was originally 42" at the city yard around the corner from my house. yeah, I said that awhile ago that it was impressive in some areas -s ure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the b&w look a bit touch east u right im going off this one that comes out a bit earlier looks closer to the Cape at 964mb but tough to tell with alll the lines lol u know you're area better so maybe u can better a closer look Is that a CMC product? I hate their maps. In any case it's further NW and it's curling. RGEM Bob, Scott and Weathafella FTW along with folks to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The RGEM had precip type issues when it was 150 miles SE of the BM. Verbatim the track appears to be over the benchmark with a slight curl north. It's east of cape cod per the black and whites. That track at this time of year will bring some warm air in, I will change over here almost for sure but Bob would probably be okay, as would most of interior SE MA. It crushes EMA, SE NH and SW Maine and somehow just Mt Tolland. Take a close look, looks like 25mm on Kevins head ending 48 Messenger, you have a good understanding of the area. I'm about 5-6 miles from the coast in Kingston, basically by the Plympton and Halifax lines. What do you think the chances that this area stays mostly snow for the storm. Judging by the track, and history usually there are some p-type issues but they don't always make it to where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I might be looking at different maps but running a line between the 36 and 48 hour positions runs it right over the BM to a position east of cape cod. The 3hrly maps from meteocentre will be out in a bit. It's hard to tell with the 12hr intervals...maybe it's hooking just inside the BM like some of the other models are doing? Either way it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM bufkit for BDL gives 1.09'' QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 3hrly maps from meteocentre will be out in a bit. It's hard to tell with the 12hr intervals...maybe it's hooking just inside the BM like some of the other models are doing? Either way it's close. Heavy heavy snow either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM bufkit for BDL gives 1.09'' QPF! you think snow ratios will stay pretty good over here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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