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XMAS Miracle: Blizzard of 2010 Lead-in Dialogue


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John,

are you sure about the 7" total from 2005? I have the PNS right here and Acton MA is in Middlesex County and they got 20 to 30+ with the highest total being 36" in Melrose.. I have a friend who lives in Marlborough MA and he told me got around 28 inches.

He may be talking Dec 9th 2005 (or wtvr exact date was)

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Depends where. Even on the GFS, I think I'm ok. Maybe flirt with dryslot, but not bad at all. Dryslot may be just se, as this low bombs and mid level lows reform.

Based on performance with the previous storm, the trough and then this one I'd say that the chances of the models being within 50 miles at this range (NAM/GFS) are less than 30%. Which way it goes who knows, but look at what it just did down in the M/A in one 6h shift.

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Yea, the storm's a complete bust because there is no high wind warning... lol

Actually, in all seriousness I see no issue with going to a blizzard watch for all areas (save the Cape where mixing issues would change the complexion of the event), SE of about ASH -HFD (with a small exceptional hole punched out of the painting that will exclude the general Tollan CT area from any impact at all (80F and sunny)).

In that region 15-20+" of snow and winds gusting to 40mph inland and near 60 at times inside of I-95 to the coast will slam dunk the 3-hour's of 1/4 mile vis requirement.

That is a blend of the 00z Euro and the NAM's last 3 cycles.

Special acknowledgement should go to the NAM for being the first model inside of 72 hours to show any consistency, and locking this threat.

Can a sleetzard watch be extended?

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Based on performance with the previous storm, the trough and then this one I'd say that the chances of the models being within 50 miles at this range (NAM/GFS) are less than 30%. Which way it goes who knows, but look at what it just did down in the M/A in one 6h shift.

I don't think the MA would be that dry based on H5.

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Where can I see that? Will you be getting the EC rundown on here? If so, can you text me anything on track/qpf?

I'm already in big trouble for posting on the phone from the x-mas morning party here at the in-laws. The droid may soon end up in the fireplace. Hope it produces some pretty colors. Check out the cips page.

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That map def. seems a bit underdone, especially for up here... the NAM and GFS both show a foot for up here and they're only calling for 8. Seems underdone in W MA and CT as well

10'' from BOX 36 hours out sounds good to me...that'll def. be upped if the models hold serve.

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That map def. seems a bit underdone, especially for up here... the NAM and GFS both show a foot for up here and they're only calling for 8. Seems underdone in W MA and CT as well

The 12Z NAM and GFS are both showing about 1" QPF at KCEF (which is about 3 miles as the crow flies from my house) ... pretty consistent with 1" down to BDL and HFD areas... IJD is at 1.25" QPF - it is definitely underdone there.

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The 12Z NAM and GFS are both showing about 1" QPF at KCEF (which is about 3 miles as the crow flies from my house) ... pretty consistent with 1" down to BDL and HFD areas... IJD is at 1.25" QPF - it is definitely underdone there.

Yea.. see the post above... I guess they kinda have to be in case the models move...

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I don't think the MA would be that dry based on H5.

Maybe but it's the 5h that changed in the 6hrs. The southern/gulf s/w is a touch faster, the digging energy a touch slower which gives them a little separation to start with the resident moisture. Not saying it's right. Flatter flow through the first 24 hours for them, by tthe time it digs in it's too late.

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